Common spot with small pp on low flop

With a pair and back doors facing a small bet we should peel.

V "should" be checking a decent amount here ... so any reads on if V is just "lol this is 1-3 and I cbet 100% for half pot vs. a BB call" or if it's wider than that? Also any reads on what happens if you raise/blastoff and V has JJ+?

I've def. seen people be like "lol, this isn't V's board so I just pile money in and he folds range when I shove turn" ... and that _can_ work.

I would mostly be calling, or maybe folding if I thought V was unbalanced to overpairs, though.

Depends who villain is. Need more info.

I am pretty much always calling vs this smallish sizing (without reads), given the pair plus backdoor draws. In theory it might be close to a fold multi-way, as his betting range should be relatively strong. That being said I think most live poker opponents will stab and give up more often than they should. I think we will usually over realize our equity on future streets compared to if we were playing against a solver, because humans don't tend to barrel off as aggressively. So we'll be able to get to a cheapish showdown more often than we should in theory.

No brainer fold. Your hand rarely improves and V can double barrel a ton.

Actually, I did have reads. On the table, it was about noon on Saturday, The table and other tables I have played at that cardroom and time were sort of tight. There would be 6-way limped pots, but rarely 4 or more way raised pots and 3!s often didn't get called.

I was fairly new to the table. However, I had made it 23 in the BB to 5 limpers, including the SB, and took it preflop. There was at UTG+2 raise to 12 and a call. I 3! from CO to 45 and took it preflop. Both times I had AJo.

Preflop, I was getting 2.5-1, and immediate odds are important with a small pp. Think the call was correct, but I would definitely fold from the SB if no one had called before me.

I actually did have a read on the main villain. He was black and appeared middle aged. I thought he was a mediocre 1/3 pro, but I wasn't completely sure, and wasn't completely sure he was a winning player. His style of play and the way he talked about hands seemed reg. He did rebuy for 300 when the max was 500. Thought he could be overly aggressive postflop.

Saw him call a raise and cbet and raise from 40 to 140 on the turn. Then tanked for 2 minutes to call an allin getting about 5.5-1. Said "I hope you have aces", called, but mucked when his opponent showed aces. Then said "I had outs". Board was J874 2-flush. Assume he had a pair and gutshot or a flush draw. Thought the play was reckless and not considering that he was pot committed, but showed he was willing to raise the turn light, and was estimating his equity when he was shoved on. His play looked strong and would get a lot of hands to fold. Presumably he was being deceptive trying to get a reaction saying he hoped his opponent had aces, but he meant that if his opponent had a set or maybe AJ some of his outs were no good.

I thought I was probably ahead on the flop and villain was just cbetting, but I didn't think he would check it down with K-high or whatever. So I folded the flop. Not sure if that was bad.

Folding pre when we’re closing the action seems incredibly nitty

Personally I’m probably stickier here, but I don’t think folding 3rd pair facing a cbet into multiple opponents could ever be bad.

dont fold pre and call flop as a default. use your MDA brain and realize that most people over cbet and under turn barrel, so just play accordingly until you get a read that suggests villain is deviating from population.

reads are overrated at 1/3 for most players as they tend to do the same thing with few exceptions. one is they cbet near 100%, turn barrel UI basically never (unless its a high card), overdefend to 3bets, and stab low card flops if you check to them as the PFR.

I doubt setmining OOP only 3way (even with a slightly discounted price) is profitable. I'd probably want another caller or two before calling and/or a slightly smaller raise. But not going to hate too much.

I mean, guy still is betting into two people on a fairly drawless board. And things aren't getting to get too much easier OOP on the turn where we'll most likely hate most cards. Yeah, we're getting a good price but if we call a lot of flops UI then our setmining costs go thru the roof to make it even less profitable (if it even was to begin with).

GfoldingmywaytovictoryG

I'm fine with calling pre, and I probably peel one on the flop for that sizing, but fold is fine/good, too.

Never folding any pp pre.

I'd never fold the flop either.

V sounds like somewhat scared money, so especially against him.

Tons of turn cards are not great for him to bluff and he likely shuts down.

Often enough, it will check down and you'll win, or you'll turn a set or straight draw.

You don't need to go crazy , but you should be able to find some bluffs on later streets. Just think of all the cards he hates if he has tt or jj.

You can rep the flush sometimes.

It's very OK to call here and fold later. Say bottom pair pairs ott. Imo most guys like v are going to give up on making you fold a pair, but try to get max value from a pair. So if he bets big, fold.

I wouldn't cr this flop, but without the fd that would be an interesting option.

I really don’t feel nitty at all. It’s very hard to realize equity with a small pair OOP. I hope no one here would dispute that.

The hidden cost: you lose a lot when you hit your hand and it’s not the winner, which does happen.

I would consider you a short term player looking for luck if you play every pp from every position. I consider myself a long term player that is very lucky in love, but not always in poker.

Population leak I think:
When a player comes at you with a ‘same bet’ line over a couple of streets, it is often a small pair. They poke around hoping they’re good.

Note: in tournaments, I don’t fold many pps because you’ve got to get lucky to win.

But when I’ve got all day long against people that are going to make a ton of mistakes, it makes no sense to get involved here.

Another note: I’m not criticizing the set-mining community at all. You play your cards anyway you want to - just giving my reasoning.

This is totally backwards. In tournament, you are playing a lot of HU pots shallow, and you should often be folding low pps. Early on in tournaments, very deep with loose play and multiway pots, than pps are excellent. In tournaments shallow, pps are sometimes open shoves or 3! shoves, not played for a set at all.

In multiway pots, against loose players fairly deep in low stakes cash games, pps are very good. In the situation in this hand preflop is a call, but it is somewhat marginal. The discount in the BB is significant. Playing 66 3-ways at a fairly tight table is not that great. It is in 4-way or more pots when pps are most valuable.

In this spot you're "basically" set-mining when you call pre, but the initial raise is pretty big and you're not going to hit a set that often. When you do hit a set you won't get paid off every time. Admittedly calling preflop is marginal.

Which brings us to the nuances of this spot... When the board is favorable for your range, you have some additional backdoor equity, etc., sometimes you have to be willing to continue in somewhat marginal situations. That's assuming you're calling pre.

Ultimately by making this flop call you're just trying to realize equity, but that still involves making some difficult decisions.

As ES2 said sometimes you will turn an open ender or set and be able to continue against another bet. Other times it will be clear that you're beat, but you will get a good opportunity to turn your hand into a bluff...

I wouldn't fault anyone for folding pre. Actually for a lot of players that would probably be the best decision. If you're making this (somewhat marginal considering 5x open) preflop call, I think you probably need to be continuing here vs this sizing on this flop. That's considering reads and assuming it's more likely our opponent is making a random stab with air, and less likely they have an overpair+ every time they make this bet.

Anyway I'm confident deuceblocker is the type of player that can call pre and turn that into a +EV decision. The fact that he's even asking this question and recognizing the nuances here demonstrates that.

IO is over 25:1, vs the shallower V, never mind HJ, and H closes the action. I can't get behind a fold pf, sorry.

On the flop, H has a variety of choices. LL villains cbet too frequently, and rarely consider their perceived range's interaction with the board. I don't see b40 cbet on 873hhx as indicative of much beyond, "I opened, I cbet." Even 3-ways. So for me, what happens next depends on reads.

Is this V sticky? Is this V really sticky? Will this V peel when facing a bet on a nut-changing card? Does this V go on OP tilt, like so many of them do?

Default for me with a whiffed pp set mine like 66 vs Generic 1/3 V is simply to fold, as weak as that is. We have a bd straight draw but no bd flush draw. I don't think much of 66/3rd pair's SV vs a Broadway/bigger PP-heavy UTG1 range. Sure, we can bluff having hearts, but we need to know that this V can fold. So many won't unless you fire two-three barrels.

If they're weak/mubsy, sure, then we can turn our whiffed set mine into a bluff. Different Vs will require different bluff set ups. Some will fold an OP to a flop x-r. "I haz set!" Some require call flop, turn x-raise (or river oop bomb if the turn x'd through). And some will sheriff us down anyway.

Also, if they're weak-tight, that means they're paying attention to you, so H in turn needs to decide which bluff story are they trying to get V to believe: Sets or Flush Draws? If FD, well, V is building the pot for us. Pot will be 75 with 268 back on a call. We wouldn't likely need to raise to have a nice big pot should the flush come by the river. Conversely, with a set, I'd think H would x-r big now, though some will hold off until the turn.

TL;DR: call pf, default fold if whiff, then raise, sometimes call. (Then raise when the nuts change.)

These immediate odds are just slightly too poor, imo, since they basically require 3 bets to always go in postflop in order to make the hand profitable, and doing that OOP at that high a success rate is going to be difficult to do. Plus one of only 2 opponents must make a hand for us to get those 3 bets to go in. And meanwhile we mostly can't do anything UI (ex. here we get one of the best flops we can have UI and yet it is still very dicey to continue).

GcluelesssetminingnoobG

The preflop call is borderline 3-way. When small pps really get valuable is in many way pots. Like this 7-way limped pot in a 5/10 game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJpMZapj...

I think now I shove have called the flop. It was once of the best flops without a set or straight draw. The small cbet was probably overcards a lot.

It's largely a question of skill level and/or strat.

If you want to win big at low stakes, you are going to have to outplay most Vs in these situations.

Nothing wrong with a tight low variance style as part of a profitable hobby.

However, if you aspire to be a bigger winner, it's probably worth absorbing some variance and even making some -ev plays so you can get practice in these situations and learn to develop an advantage.