1/3, Big Slick hits TP on the turn
1/3 8handed
(375) MP unpredictable fish limps
(350) Hero on the button-usually considered to be tight, finds - AsKd - and opens 15
(420) BB mid age loose/passive reg calls
MP calls
(46) flop 9c6h2d
Checks to Hero (complete miss)
Bets 20, BB calls, MP folds
(86) turn 9c6h2d(Ah)
Villain checks to Hero (hit top pair)
Hero?
16 Replies
I think anywhere from 50 to 100 is reasonable.
OK, maybe was straight-forward spot
Hero bets 55 for value
Villain tanks awhile just staring at the board, then calls
(196) river 9c6h2dAh(4h)
V (BB) donk leads for 125
H (B) has 260 behind
Hero ?
I would call the river, but you are usually not good. Would need read on villain to fold.
I would fold. I don’t see a lot of bluffs in the x/c, x/c, lead line. Especially with an A on board. Feels like 9hXh
These threads are significantly easier to read if the entire hand history is included in one post, especially in these cases where the turn is somewhat of a standard spot.
I would probably check this flop. As played, turn seems pretty normal.
Villain's line OTR is very value-heavy, but you could beat some value (AQ and AJ, which some people will flat pre and float the flop with) and certain players will call turn with a straight draw like 87 planning to represent flushes, so bluffs are also possible. The price is good enough that you can call here sometimes. Probably better to have a H in your hand or a strong read on the player one way or another.
Pretty straight-forward fold I think. It's a snap call in GTO world and you're super overfolding and being exploitable and yada yada, but given population tendencies, I doubt you're good here 28% of the time.
Yeah I would fold here. Would be more likely to call against smaller sizing (because weaker AX would be more likely) or if there were more draws that missed. 78s is the only bricked draw and there’s only 3 combos because 78hh is a flush. Don’t think he is turning a pair into a bluff in this spot.
Pretty straight-forward fold I think. It's a snap call in GTO world and you're super overfolding and being exploitable and yada yada, but given population tendencies, I doubt you're good here 28% of the time.
What he said. Call online or versus some regs, but vs a loose-passive x/call guy, default is a fold. Some of them are going to bluff you, and H only needs 28%, but that's why we have live reads.
They just always have it with this line. At least H made them pay to see it.
I'm fine with preflop.
Think we're likely over-cbetting the more we're betting flops where we have absolutely nothing going on, especially the more multiway we go. Think we're better off taking a free card.
I think it's going to be difficult to get two more streets of value from worse on this turn card unless dood is a real calling station against cards that should smash us. If he's the type to keep calling down with lol 6x then ok maybe. But I'd mostly check behind this relatively drawless board and go for one more street of value on the river against most. With air I'd be much more likely to bet this scare card against most.
ETA: As played and facing the relatively large river donk, life sucks, imo. The backdoor flush got there as did a gutshot and some weirdo two pairs. The only busted draw is really 87, not enough of the pop bluffs in general (let alone against our very strong line), and he rarely gets to the turn with a naked Ace that he now overvalues. I think I sigh fold.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Hand is fine. Vs a loose/passive, I fold the river unless I have some amazing read that he has worse than AK -- I just can't imagine what it is.
Reveal
Hero is surprised by the donk bet, because can’t see how it makes sense. Missed straight draws are unlikely, sets likely raise earlier and can’t worry about a backdoor flush. Would he really donk big after hitting the flush?
Nobody zeroed in on the clue that really led to the call. He kept staring at the board before calling the turn. I see this and feel like they are praying that their card will hit. If that is the deal, then I know most likely their card will not hit. I tanked much longer than usual, but made the call.
Villain flipped over 57 of spades
Final board was 9c6h2dAh4h
Don’t ask me?
I almost folded, but when you’re an old guy like me, everyone thinks they can bluff you off a hand. It kinda brings another level of complexity.
Someone else at the table muttered, “That’s why I never fold top pair at 1/3
If you had the read that he was drawing, why were you discounting a backdoor flush? It actually seems like a really standard line for a backdoor flush to take, which is why many people were suggesting to fold.
As I said in my above post, I think it's a fine spot to call with the price you were given. Villain took a pretty suicidal bluff line at $1/$3 against population, as evidenced by your tablemate's fishy comment.
Meh. Staring at the board can mean lots of things: do I raise my two pair, do I have the odds/gamble to call w/ my draw, etc.
Passive players don't normally bluff the river on a board that favors their opponent, but good for you. Maybe he thought the four made his straight -- I've seen it happen 😉
Nobody zeroed in on the clue that really led to the call. He kept staring at the board before calling the turn. I see this and feel like they are praying that their card will hit. If that is the deal, then I know most likely their card will not hit. I tanked much longer than usual, but made the call.
I dismissed this because imo -- and I'm basically just adopting Zach Elwood's analysis here because I don't think I have anything to contribute -- staring at the board is not informative. (Or to be pedantic, it's only minimally informative.) The opposite behavior, looking away from the board, is informative. But staring at the board is the default behavior for many. So even though many people do stare at the board when they missed, this is only weak evidence for them having missed because many people stare at the board no matter what.
And if I had considered it, I don't see how that helps since most draws completed on the River.
when you’re an old guy like me, everyone thinks they can bluff you off a hand. It kinda brings another level of complexity.
Adjustments based on RL appearance or vibe are real and underrated, imE. Ofc can't judge/verify whether it mattered here.
I'd bet the turn for 50
Plenty of worse hands still call, and BB's line is pretty capped.
Against the player type, a turn raise is almost always value, so I'm folding if that happens.
Check back most rivers