€5/5 Do we go for max value on the river or hit the brakes?

Interesting spot.

What hands does he double flat pre? Seems like that would really condense his range to 77-99, and suited Broadway combos. Weird that a good TAG would double flat on the BTN. Wondering if he ever flats with any hands he could 3B, like AK/AQ, or JJ, because the opener is also TAG, and the CO is weak.

Agree a lower set with 77 is possible, and maybe some flushes. Just wondering how often he'd raise turn with a set or flush draw. Seems like those hands would raise turn at some frequency.

Seems like a lot of his FD's are also going to be Broadway gut shots or TXcc, but other than JTcc, or maybe T9cc, it's hard to think he double flats pre with any TXcc. So, maybe he's got T9, JT, KQ, and maybe KJ/QJ. I might think he's got 3 to 5 flush combos that make sense, assuming he's not getting here with KT/QT.

Also seems like a lot of his range is going to just be some AX combo that he may just check back. He could have some AQ/AJ combos that might play this way. Maybe sometimes A5, occasionally maybe some other AX combos for whatever reason.

Just thinking that he might call wide pre because of fish in CO, then calls again because he thinks you're 3B'ing wide from SB, the others fold, and he has position. Maybe he shows up with A7/A3.

Think a jam is fine, if he doesn't think we'd jam worse than a flush, and he's capable of bluff catching with just top pair. Doubtful he's going to fold any 2P combo.

If he's more likely to fold AX, and might bet thin, I guess we could check, but we're guessing if he bets big. Hard to check-fold a set just because the BDFD comes in. We're going to have so many worse hands in range that could fold, and not very many better hands that can call.

Don't think I'd bet/fold. It's either jam, or check-call, I think.

I'd jam - he can have good Ax and that's probably the only hands that might call - if he got here with like JJ I think he folds, and I think he prob folds something like 99 on the turn

One piece of information I left out and perhaps should have included: these two pros are good friends (they're always together, they carpool et cetera) and basically softplay each other. In the past by just blatantly checking out everything against each other, but lately it might have become a bit less obvious (I haven’t been at their table regularly for quite some time). So him flatting the first raise on the button might have something to do with his mate opening, but I don't exactly know what that could mean for his range. It doesn’t mean that I expect him to flat AA or KK or something, to be clear.

As always, I really dislike the down-bet on the flop, but I know it's a thing.

As played, I think your only option is to jam. He should not have AA here (if he does, I wouldn't play at the same table as these two). If he backed into a flush, more power to him, but since the Ac is out there, it's doubtful.

I would shove. You are OOP and you have to call if you check and he shoves. If you are beat, you get stacked either way. Question is if checking gets more from bluffs or value betting worse than shoving gets from worse calling.

I don't like small cbets in general, but the board is fairly dry and you strongly block top pair, so I think it is played almost perfectly to the river.

Nit pre calls 20 dollar open and then calls big bet. You would think any hand that calls the raise would have bet themselves.

I don’t think JJ or QQ does this-they raise pre don’t they?
77 and 55 could easily do this, and you’re ahead, but I also think KcTc, QcTc, and JcTc might take this line.

I also don’t understand the downbet on the flop. Hit this hand big, get some money in. You made it easy for him to float the flop with anything, I don’t think you narrowed his range with this move. With more pressure, you could start to eliminate hands drawing to beat you.

The turn is where the puzzle is interesting.
I wouldn’t take his call lightly either.
He may have paused wondering if the ace helped your AT enough that he can shove his set now.
He may have paused wondering if he should shove his flush draw.
He surely doesn’t know his set is behind.

There’s so much uncertainty, I think I check the river, watching villain carefully for clues on how to respond to his action. If I can’t find any, it’s going to be a guess.

Check the turn

Turn bet is good. Need to build the pot. Ace favors our range. Hope he improved and made top pair or a flush draw.

Shove the river and you played the hand perfectly imo. I see no reason to check anywhere.

We down bet with top set cause we really don’t want them to fold. Imagine villain here having AK and turns an ace..

Shove. Hand is fine. Do not check the turn.

If they are calling $75, they are calling $125 or $150. I guess if this V will raise perceived weakness we can down-bet in hopes that he does, but I'd still rather bet at least $100 (which I see he might have done, but was it to induce?).

Originally I was thinking I like the small bet but the more I think about it I probably prefer a bigger bet. Hands like AK/AQ/99/88/etc will probably call one bet here not improving OTT of course - the small bet can be used more so against tough LAGs who might float the flop light but in a live 5/5 game against a TAG pro betting bigger is better imo. On the flip side say our opponent was a lag pro - we might want to bet small and check the turn hoping he has a ton of weak holdings OTT and starts bluffing

Result:

Results aside, this shows why a small bet on the flop works well for both our range and our hand.

Think you played it fine.

Hindsight is 20/20. Maybe if you size up a tad pre and/or on flop you can 2x pot jam turn and play a two street game. As played, the run-out and SPR just don't give you a lot of manueverability on the river.

Sometimes you play perfect and lose. I'm wondering about all those who check or bet river small - if he jams less than pot are you really folding a set because the BDFD hit? I'm not. I don't feel good about it, but I'm calling.

And if you're calling the jam when he us nutted, You have to jam to get value from Ax and possibly smaller sets. I don't think we can check expecting Ax or a bluff to bet 100%. I don't think QQ/JJ are heroing down enough to bet smaller. So jam and when he has the flush, that's why poker is a game we all love to hate.

V can very easily fold two overs to a big bet on this flop. If V is a fish that falls in love with AQ, by all means fire away. But most pros are going to auto fold to a big bet with just overs vs 1/2 pot plus in a 3! pot. From Vs perspective, he's against QQ+ a ton and even with AK equity is like 20% vs Hs range. vs a small bet, V can consider raising with two overs+BDFD/bdsd.

OTT why would we check and give V a free draw or play pot control with Ax? We have a strong hand that benefits from charging draws and we want to get all the money in by the river. Our sole goal should be get the money in. Not let our opponent decide if the pot gets big.

Like I said, hindsight is 20/20.

I think OP's raise size pre is fine. Maybe he can bet $25 more on the flop, to set up a 2x pot turn jam as an option. If we bet much more than 1/3 pot, we start folding out too much of our opponents' range.

As played, the pot was $450 and he had $1050 behind, which is pretty close. The only question to ask at that point is if we want to play a two street game and 2x pot jam, or bet smaller, let V see another card, and have less than a pot sized bet remaining.

It's a close decision. If we over-bet jam turn, it's hard to get called by many hands. We're mostly targeting hands that floated the flop wide and improved somehow, like some AX combo or a combo draw. It's hard to range V when he double flats pre. He's not supposed to have very many strong hands here.