Winner leaked for NBC Heads Up Championship by Polymarket? (probable spoilers inside)

Free money to bet on Sam if it's really already been determined?

Has anyone gotten into this poly market action? It seems like it should be full of opportunities for us advantage-player gambler types.

what kind of ****** would bet on an event that already happened at least without seeing the winner with their eyes. non zero chance its some elaborate scam so theirs no edge to vote sam soveral unless you or someone you trust saw him win

Yes they are picking up in popularity and I think a poker type mindset could do quite well at them. As an American you have to vpn into poly (although they got US approval and will be here soon). Kalshi is a similar US approved market

Check out this video about polymarket. He's basically saying insider trading is illegal for stocks, but there's no such law against making polymarket bets using insider information. Even without insider information it seems like you could outperform using an analytical EV framework. This idea seems promising. I'm just not sure where you would start to learn about this stuff.

Interesting site - never seen this before. Not sure how you can find edge other than maybe sports where they offer a better line then the sportsbook.

even if a theoretical edge is possible (its probably not) such a huge percentage of the field your betting against already knows the outcome? its a zero sum game and most of the bettors are already winning because they know the outcome how can you profit ? lol

It's not all stuff with a known outcome. If you watch the video, he uses as an example a guy who literally bet $50k that there would be a streaker during the Superbowl. Then he bought tickets for like a few K and streaked across the field himself. With the odds that were being offered it sounds like he stood to win about $300k on his $50k in bets. It sounds like his bets were anonymous and it would have worked except that he ran his mouth online bragging about what he did, which caused the sites to refuse to pay him.

In general you could be right though that the market is very efficient at picking winners, and there might not be much edge available. My thinking is that the biggest edges would be available on issues where there's not a lot of interest, and thus bigger market inefficiencies to exploit.

Have you ever read Bill Benters works on his horse racing strategy? Something similar could be constructed with modern data science/analysis methods I would imagine. Even though horse racing is different since horses "carry over" race to race, and thus so does our understanding of them, modern methods could probably enlighten us to hidden similarities between types of bets that allow us to bucket them together and draw conclusions.

I haven't read his work, but it sounds interesting.

That guy I posted above suggested a similar idea. He said people with inside information typically follow a similar pattern on sites like polymarket. He said that one or more new accounts placing large amounts on a given outcome typically means they have inside information. He suggested that you could design an algorithm to search for markers of inside information and then place bets on the same side.

Another example he used was the Taylor Swift engagement, where there were likely some close friends and family who knew about it before it became public. If one or more of them went on polymarket and bet $50k or something on that, you might be able to pick up on it with an algorithm and bet on the same side. Your algorithm wouldn't have to be right 100% of the time. It would just need to be right often enough to beat the odds being offered.

I don’t have a peacock subscription, but the market resolved to a yes for Soverel, so I’m assuming the episodes aired and the insider was a real insider all along.

Would be curious who finished 2nd, someone needs to ask him if he has a polymarket account

Haven't actually watched this, but the concept of "insider trading" doesn't exist in prediction markets, at least the way they would in say the stock market. The whole point is to use information to your advantage. If you go into a market without assuming people know more than you, you will get ****ed, just like poker or any other gambling.

The point of prediction markets is to essentially "legitimize" the power of information. You can't have "accurate" pricing without information. Why wouldn't insiders have the most information for their particular markets? And why wouldn't they want to profit off suckers by using it? This isn't like poker where having access to your opponents' hole cards is clearly cheating.

The whole thing is ****ing fascinating. From how the "markets" are made (like what rules determine a "Yes") and natural language games built on top of decentralized blockchain technology. The UMA protocol itself can be manipulated and played. You can play the game straight and just try to predict. You can "trade" shares like it is a stock market.

It is awesome.

Way more fascinating than poker.

We used to just call prediction markets "props" and it was universally acknowledged that it was the most degenerate type of gambling available.

This whole aggrandizing gambling as something else is frankly ******ed

Not sure who this is directed at, but because something is fascinating doesn't necessarily mean that it is something more than it is... It is cringeworthy enough hearing people compare poker to life. There are no delusions here. It is gambling. And fun.

The important take from the insider information is not illegal here is that you will be competing against those with inside information so you either have it as well or you are a sucker.

Not everyone knows it’s taped

How can you bet on something that has already happened?

Anyone who bets on it and doesn't know who won is a sucker.

Been able to bet on taped events forever, like the tv show, “Survivor”. Definitely have to wonder how many insiders have tried to profit off their knowledge.

by TaiwanUP m

Relevant article I came across today

https://finbold.com/trading-bot-turns-313-into-438000-on-polymarket-in-a-month/

Finbold

Trading bot turns $313 into $438,000 on Polymarket in a month

Incredible. Us mortals have no chance.

the crypto markets that follow live coin prices are likely run by bots/algorithms. I can guarantee you there are edges to be found in lower liquidity/volume markets where the real value is not something that can be calculated off a live price.

The owners of these sites (Polymarket, Kalshi) literally say it flat out that they embrace insider trading. If you bet on any of this crap without insider information you are an absolute moron.

The only takeaway here is that if you ever have insider information about anything that is available on these sites, bet your house on it and laugh all the way to the bank.

A general warning about Prop markets from one of the most famous professional prop betters out there

Sure, there’s insider worries (like Soverel knowing he won and being able to get on himself). Or with Google search markets that half a half million in liquidity, someone internal is temped enough to exploit it.

But a lot of markets aren’t like that (like who will win the Illinois Republican senate primary). Some only have enough liquidity to make $1k and it’s not worth the risk for someone’s tech job. It’s looking like people here are underestimating just how much edge there can be.

Like sometimes there’s markets about who will win the most on Hustler Casino that night. Once the game starts there’s probably only a few hundred in liquidity to chase. So guys opening to $2k, are they gonna rush to their phones to bet on themselves before the delay catches up? The money often isn’t worth it.