FT: Would you fold AKs in BB? €7,5 Mystery XL IPoker
We are at the 7 handed Final Table of a €7,5 buy Mystery XL tournament on IPoker.
Blinds are 100.000/200.000, there are 5 players left. 5th pays €55 with 1st place paying €244. There are also a mystery bounty left of €93.
I'm at the BB and after posting the BB I have 15bb behind.
UTG has 28bb
CO has 110bb
Button has 16bb
SB has 12bb.
UTG folds
CO pushes all-in, which he does almost all hands
Button snap calls
SB folds
I hold AKs. What do I do here? #4 wins €74, so there is a nice pay jump if button loses to the big stack. Since the big stack pushes about 80% of his hands on the FT (I have no previous reads on this player, but on Sharkscope I see he's a winning player with a ROI of 19,1% over 1561 tournaments). I'm pretty sure I'm ahead of him and would snap call without a doubt. However, then the button, who is a tight player, snap calls and has me slightly covered. Do I snap call as well?
8 Replies
Call. You are one of the shortest stacks. CO has maybe an 80% range and you are ahead of BTNs range. Not crazy about calling allin 3-ways for ICM, but you have to go with it.
I was in doubt because of the ICM. In standard situations I'm not too keen on calling two all ins with AK. But in this case I though that, since I'm probably ahead of both, if I call and win, I'm in good shape for at least 2nd place. But if I folded, I might at least survive one payjump if the big stack wins. In these cases I find ICM difficult to take into my decision making since I have not much time to make a decision online....
With the usual pay jumps, I am not folding ak in this spot unless I have some awesome read on players or if I think Chipleader will take everyone out before I am bb again. If I fold this, I am folding everything else other than kk, aa until my blind.
I think with the button calling this is by no means a snap call, though it may still be a call. I need to do a little research.
I'm curious what your research will say. It wasn't a snap call for me either, and still not sure what the best course of action was in this spot...btw, I'm not a native speaker, so if my spelling or grammar is a bit off, sorry...
With the usual pay jumps, I am not folding ak in this spot unless I have some awesome read on players or if I think Chipleader will take everyone out before I am bb again. If I fold this, I am folding everything else other than kk, aa until my blind.
Even with two all in's in front of you one of which was a snap call from a pretty tight player? Because that was why I wasn't sure if I should make the call.
I think one important thing here is that we do not cover the cutoff. If we both bust this hand, we finish 5th. If we fold and CO busts, we ladder, and there's still a stack shorter than us. So risk premium is paramount here.
I'm pretty sure AKo would be a fold. AKs is probably closer. Haven't done any lookups or numbers yet, this is just off the top of my head.
The flipside is that if we win the hand and triple up, we have a great stack for winning that big bounty.
The remaining payouts and bounties would be really useful here.
Even with two all in's in front of you one of which was a snap call from a pretty tight player? Because that was why I wasn't sure if I should make the call.
The difference between 5th and 4th isn’t large enough for me to fold this hand but I also assume CL is putting everyone all in, every hand. I also assume you have paid a bb ante so you have 13bb left. I don’t play many mystery bounties on line but your inability to win a mystery bounty may be a factor. (Our live mystery bounty tournaments, I would turn in my bounty chips and draw for the remaining bounties - so I would have a shot at drawing the 93 bounty if I knocked others out.)
If he is crushing the table with his tactics, winning with garbage and good hands, I may try to slide into second by folding everything when he plays the hand in front of me. The tight player snap calling means little to me at these stakes with no physical reads to rely on because it’s on line.
