1-2 KcQc on A53c7c7 with big HH promo. and stupid amounts of reads
Stupidbanana might be most amused to read, and I was not intentionally cosplaying as him but fully expect at least one "hero was drunk and should have gone home"...
Mohegan:
It's Jan 1st and there's a _huge_ high hand promotion for 2k an hour. Literally every seat is filled, wait list has like 250 people on it, which while mostly a lie is not going down. Probably 75%+ of the mostly 1-2 room is playing to hit bingo for a high hand and take 2k home.
V1: Seems okay. Not good, but def. better than average. Has mostly played passive, but with better hands than average and is up a bti?
H: Mostly annoying everyone by raising preflop. Not playing a lot of hands though, so should have a tight/good image vs. anyone watching. V1 probably included.
Literal hand before this: H raised to 12 (with KQo) and folded to flop bet 3 or 4 ways, V1 was in SB and looked mildly annoyed as he folded preflop (like he'd be happy to limp it to see a flop, and if I wasn't in the hand it's like 95% he would have).
OTTH:
BB is a station
1 random limper who can’t fold
H EP opens K♣Q♣ to $15
V1 eventually calls BTN after looking uncertain about what he should do
BB and limper spew call
Pot: ~60
Flop: A53♣
BB x
Limp x
I bet 20
V looks uncertain calls
BB f
limp f
Flop is mostly an exploit bet as I'd normally not even bet AK here, but figure people will believe I have a decent A a lot and fold. Anyway, plan A burns to the ground and I'm going to give up if turn isn't a club.
Pot: ~100
Turn: A53♣7♣
I bet 45
V thinks again and calls
Not sure about this as A6/A4/A2 probably all continue and I'm giving up on a lot of non-club rivers, but it's a club and not as bad as 2c or 4c...
Pot: ~190
River: A53♣7♣ 7x
I bet 150 pretty quickly
After the turn call I'm sure he has at least Ax, feels like 2 pair or better would often raise but maybe not and maybe 64 just got there.
On river if he has A5/A3, river screwed it and A9 has to be worried vs. a big bet. Also K♣Q♣ and maybe K♣J♣/K♣T♣ are bottom of range so while I don't have a lot of value hands that play this way it's not like I have a lot of bluffs.
As always feel free to comment on anything.
13 Replies
i think its not very good (on multiple streets - flop / river) and you don't seem to have any reads despite thread title
it feels like the uncertainty makes something like 44/66 less likely too. 7 also seems like a bad river to keep going on for multiple reasons
cannot overstate how much i dont like flop in general though (multiway, 0 equity, people who you aren't really going to be able to barrel, many plausible continues because coordinated board, a board you aren't supposed to be betting much)
Flop: I don't hate just cbetting against a passive field, IME you just take it down a lot more than you should.
Turn: Go home, you're drunk :P. V probably has a ton of Ax, and Ax is never folding for $45. What are we folding? I guess maybe a mid pp, or 5x?
I think x is much better, see if V has a hand big enough to bet. We have the option to x/r if we want to get spicy and maximize fold equity. A hand like A8 might bet, but have a hard time calling a x/r.
River: If we're going to get Ax to fold, $150 isn't doing it. If you're going to go bananas, go for it and jam. Probably better to give up because we haven't forced V to reveal his strength. If we had checked turn and V checked back we can fire a bluff targeting middling pps and 5x hands. Though we have a smidge of SDV so probably better combos to bluff.
Pot: ~60
Flop: A53♣
BB x
Limp x
I bet 20
V looks uncertain calls
BB f
limp f
Flop is mostly an exploit bet as I'd normally not even bet AK here, but figure people will believe I have a decent A a lot and fold. Anyway, plan A burns to the ground and I'm going to give up if turn isn't a club.
This strikes me as the wrong exploit to make. This isn't a good spot to bluff on a normal day and I think the promo dynamic makes it even worse. I think always betting AQ+ here would be a much better adjustment than starting to bluff with air. Villains just have so much trash AX that won't fold. People are limping in with stuff like A8o to try and make quads and flat calling AJs to try and make a royal, so go for max value with TPGK. If flop checks through, you can consider starting a bluff on the turn to get the trash to fold out.
River is a spot where you need him to fold top pair a lot. That means the spot is going to be under-folded so you shouldn't bluff. If you do bluff, I would rather go smaller (targeting something like 54s that could reasonably make it to the river). I just don't think AX folds here that much and Villain is more likely than normal to have a slowplay (AK or AQ slowplaying pre, 55 or 33 slowplaying post to make quads).
Grunch:
When the promos are big and the fish are running, I expect to see more slow-plays. When V looks like he's wondering what to do, I wouldn't necessarily read that as weak. He may be considering if he wants to raise, and decides against it because he wants to make that high hand.
Multi-way, I'd mostly just check/fold the flop with KQs when the board comes A73. I suppose we can peel one if someone bets, because there's a club on board. But I'm not looking to bloat the pot OOP and multi-way by driving the betting, and if the bets get big, I'm out.
Will not be shocked to read V had AA or something that should have 3B pre.
Turn, we are OOP and have the nut flush draw, so it seems better to bet than x/c or x/f. Giving yourself the price to draw with this bet, but could maybe use a larger sizing.
I don't hate the flop bet. The board is quite dry and static with one straight and no HE draws, and I think these types of boards are significantly overfolded. It's bad in theory, but we are be buying it more than we should.
I don't love it either though, it's into three people so MDF is only 37% individually but I can still see Vs overfolding relative to that.
I think it's the turn that's awful:
Turn: Go home, you're drunk :P. V probably has a ton of Ax, and Ax is never folding for $45. What are we folding? I guess maybe a mid pp, or 5x?
I think x is much better, see if V has a hand big enough to bet. We have the option to x/r if we want to get spicy and maximize fold equity. A hand like A8 might bet, but have a hard time calling a x/r.
Yeah, the turn sizing doesn't work. If you are trying to get folds from Ax, you should go bigger ($75 I think works if I did the math?) and then shove river for slightly over pot. Ambitious, but I think that line probably gets folds from stuff like A8.
Otherwise I think it's fine to mostly give up; we tried an exploit bet on the flop and it didn't work, and now V is stronger because of it. If V checks it back, we might have options on the river including making the flush. We might also get the odds to keep drawing.
As played, I think the turn/river sizing gets called by Ax almost always.
This is a situation where I would pot the flop.
I know, I know, the solver guys….
But I have the initiative with nothing and they’re still checking to me, so I want to help them fold. With your image, you likely take it down.
I guess nobody does it anymore, but you would be surprised the folds you get going big on the flop.
If called, got to play poker and decide from the response whether to give up or continue.
As played, I like the quick bet on the river. Totally looks like the seven hit you hard and you’re jumping on it. All your reasons seem accurate in putting villain to the test.
However, I don’t think any ace will fold now, and you’re certainly beat if you get called. But you’re telling a believable story and it just might get through.
One thing about Mohegan Sun $1/$2 on high-hand day is that no one ever raises a set because they all plan on hitting quads, so I wouldn't discount the possibility of a really strong hand from villain.
That being said, if we are barreling turn, I wish we had bet significantly more. It's the type of spot where you overbet for value with AK or A5s or 55 and see MS villains open-fold weak AX, so it has to be a good spot to bluff for big. It also becomes an easier give-up OTR when villain gets funneled into this line where he basically always has TPGK or better.
Check flop, as played check turn, as played bomb river.
One thing about Mohegan Sun $1/$2 on high-hand day is that no one ever raises a set because they all plan on hitting quads, so I wouldn't discount the possibility of a really strong hand from villain.
Yeh, this was probably worth thinking about more postflop ... I was mostly stuck on preflop as I'd assume he'd snap call 55/33 there, so when he looked uncertain preflop and postflop I put him mostly on Ax.
Results:
He thought, but only for 15-25 seconds, and then called with 33.
...obviously could be thinking if he can raise, but FWIW it didn't feel like that. Also made a massive fold of 2nd nuts vs. me two hands later, so who knows.
This hand is just an unnecessary spew
