1/2, QQ vs . . . him again
This guy keeps pushing us around. I’ve had enough. Snap call.
I agree with doc. OP is focused on the main V without considering how the minor Vs shape the dynamics of the hand. If it’s going 4 way to the flop, bet 15 pre, maybe even 20. I like a smaller bet on the flop multiway, rather than bloat the pot. I guess hero can also overbet the flop if you think one of the two minor Vs will still call with their draws. But isn’t that playing face up with an overpair on a wet flop?
Idk about OP’s read. V may win tournaments because he enters into a lot of them. Winning a prominent tournament takes considerable luck. Some of the best players on this forum say the tournaments are just bingo. Vs style seems more like crash and burn. Unless this V has a big bankroll, he’ll probably go broke sooner or later.
So I am calling the turn jam even though I’m really hating it.
A pattern I see in this forum is getting in sticky situations with better players. Why? You want to avoid the good players as much as possible and exploit the fish. In this hand if both players are fish you value bet relentlessly. But against a better player you could have simply checked the turn and showed down the hand for only one more bet. Yes it partially sucks because the
I disagree. Playing bad passive poker because your opponent is good is the exact opposite of what you want to do. And checking the turn is bad poker. If we turn passive because we are afraid of a player, we just let them run us over more and play right into their hands.
I think we can bet/fold vs some players, and bet/fold is vastly superior to checking. This player is labeled "good" because he fires a lot and the prior x/raises he made in the other example hands weren't theoretically sound. They were either fishy or exploitive. He either isn't as good as OP thinks and just has aggressive spewy tendencies, or he is playing exploitive poker recognizing his opponents are overfolding and is over x/ring as an exploit. In either case, the answer is clear - call vs this player.
I folded. When real money goes in, he tends to have it. At worst, he has something like J♦ 10♦ or A♥ 5♥ that I have the lead on, but I don't think it makes up for the times he has 76 or 44 and I'm ****ed.
I can (and did) call down light, but that was against a different dude when he basically checkraise-minclicked me, not against him for a bigger-than-PSR shove with another guy in the middle.
Those of you who stated I need to make a stand are correct of course, because I basically played my overpair face-up and he could have had 72o for all I know.
Mega-thanks to docvail, who's been on this journey with me since jump street, and Yamihere for getting knee-deep into the lore.
Watch out, Marchron. A few more HH's like this one, and we'll be rooting for him, rather than you.
Please don't. He's a horse's ass.
As a general response to the criticism of checking back the turn...
Setting aside the reads on and meta with this V, our hand isn't all that strong on this board, in a pot that went multi-way. It's not really a three-street hand when we're starting 200BB deep, and the population is generally going to play fairly face up on the river when we check back.
Speaking directly to the reads on and meta with this V, I think bet-calling is steering into the reads / meta and soft exploiting V's aggro tendencies. This V is "special" because he's proven himself capable of raising light on later streets. He's not just bluffing or betting thin when we show weakness. He's playing back at us when we're the aggressor.
Against the population, I don't hate bet-folding, or checking back, because the low-stakes pop is under-bluffing when they x/r turn, and over-bluffing rivers when we check back. Against this V, I think bet-folding is the worst option, followed by checking back, with bet-calling being the best option, especially if we're going to use a middling bet size.
The reason I said betting turn was a mistake is that all our bet sizes in this hand set up a spot where V can check-jam turn and we're torn about what to do, because it does seem fairly EV-neutral, if we don't know whether or not he's over-bluffing. We end up over-folding when we get here the way hero did. It's a mistake to use the bet sizing we did, AND fold to his check-raise. It's fine to bet, if we bet-call.
Bottom line - if we're betting turn "for protection", because it's such a draw-heavy board, it seems logically inconsistent to fold to his jam, because it is such a draw-heavy board. I don't think we can logically say he only jams with hands that beat us. He doesn't need to be that aggro to find more than enough high-equity semi-bluff jams here.
Once we get to the turn the way we did, a really small bet or a really big bet prevents V from putting us in the blender with a 2x pot jam. We can also check-back, but we'll probably have to call if he leads river, even if he uses a fairly large size, say, up to 2/3 or even 3/4 pot, on almost any river card. He's just going to have too many bluffs.
FWIW, I think he x/r's flop with 44 and 76hh, maybe also 76dd, and maybe even some other 76 combos. I think his flop x/r range is going to be his strong yet vulnerable hands and 8+ out draws to non-nutted hands. Basically, he's x/r'ing flop with value hands that benefit from some protection and good draws that would love to just take it down without having to improve.
I think he's more likely to x/r the turn with a hand that had a fair bit of equity to improve on the flop, and still does, but isn't likely to win at showdown if he doesn't improve in a very big way. Something like 1P + a draw or JTdd.
When I said he could have all the 2P+ combos, I meant that he knows we're not going to have very many of those combos in our range, in this line, and we probably think he might have all those combos, so he can leverage his perceived range advantage and start over-bluffing when we barrel too thin, making us MUBsy.
Does he ACTUALLY have all the 2P+ combos here? No, I think probably not. A player as aggro as he is would be more likely to start fast-playing his thick value on the flop when he's OOP and it's multi-way. He's probably raising flop with all his vulnerable 2P combos. The only 2P combo I think he has on the turn is 54, most likely 54hh.
If you want to make yourself harder for him to exploit, stop using the 1/2-3/4 pot bet sizes you're using on flop and turn. You're just making it too easy for him.
Try forcing yourself to only use <1/3 or >pot on flop, and <1/2 pot or >1.5x pot on turn, based on the ranges you're targeting and what you want those ranges to do on each street.
Think about how you want to manipulate the SPR leading to the river. In this hand, we probably want to size up on early streets to set up a low SPR for the river, or just make it an easy two-street game with a reasonably-sized turn jam. If we fail to do that, then we probably want to pot-control by checking back the turn, to keep the SPR high going to the river.
Those saying we should have checked turn are suffering from some serious results-oriented thinking. We might not love that he jammed, but the turn is an almost mandatory bet with a strong but vulnerable overpair and infinite draws out there. I would have likely bet a bit bigger to set up a river jam, which also makes calling the turn jam the clearer play as we'd be getting a be
Yeah. 300 to see almost 900. Even against a set we have outs. I can see a wild and reckless villain do this with a diamond draw he just picked up for example. If he’s reckless, he could be doing this with some kind of combo draw, right? The only hand that has us in terrible shape obviously, and drawing dead, is 67. But that’s it.
Now, against your average low stakes player, I fold. You were at the table watching this guy though so you have a better idea about his table image and what he’s capable of. But, that’s what I’m thinking and I think OP is probably in the best spot to make that decision.
