Should I be raising at some point ?
£1/£1 8 handed
UTG opens £6 (£300)
MP calls (£200)
2 callers
Hero calls SB Js10s covers
Flop As8s3s (£31)
UTG £15
MP calls
Hero calls
Turn 6h (£76)
UTG £35
Hero Calls
River Kh (£146)
UTG £55
Hero??
Should we be raising at some point in this hand?? I was slightly concerned with the UTG barrelling three streets with flop and turn being into two players
9 Replies
I wouldn't. You raise to get better hands to fold or poorer hands to call and doubt either will occur.
I think flatting the flop is standard. OTT, we can think about a x/r but I don't hate flatting to keep him on the hook, though if we think V isn't going to triple his strong non-nutted hands, we should raise turn or donk river.
What is Vs range? He opened UTG, which usually means a strong hand Axs, pps, broadways - is he raising K9s UTG? That's pretty loose and we should have an idea if V is playing that loose. If V ever open limps, or if V isn't opening a ton, the only combo that beats us is KQ spades.
Would AA/AK/AQ with Qs/A8/KK with Ks/88 triple barrel? Maybe. We've check called twice, V has no reason to believe 2p+ is bad We easily look like we could have Ax and none of the bets are particularly large.
So I'd raise for value on the river. Sucks when we walk into KQss, but I think V has more sets and 2p that will make a crying call. I think we are felting AA more than we are running into KQss. There are 6x more combos of AA and AxKs than there are KQss, and I think AA or AxKs take the same line a lot.
Yeah I think my concern on river is he might not stack off with Sets, I have a pretty solid imagine so I think he may fold those hands.
Im not sure if V will bet AQ on river but I think 2p+ yes. im more concerned what called if I check raise river so deep he will have just under £200 back. I dont think AK calls here and maybe just worse flushes
Im not sure if V will bet AQ on river but I think 2p+ yes. im more concerned what called if I check raise river so deep he will have just under £200 back. I dont think AK calls here and maybe just worse flushes
But what flushes does V have? KQss is the only logical flush he has, and I'm not sure that bets flop 100%. I suppose we could give him K9ss or other random ss hand that's just his "favorite". Even if we give him 3 combos, he definitely has AA and maybe has 88. Then you have a smattering of Ksx hands like KsJx that was semi bluffing and rivered a pair and the river is more a weird blocker bet.
We are getting called by AA almost always, if 88 is there that's calling too. AK should call, if he's folding AK we can bluff a lot in the future.
Most other hands probably fold, but sometimes Vs make weird calls if we give them the chance. A hand like A8 is more likely than K9ss and might play this way. It shouldn't call but it wouldn't shock me. The bottom line is that there aren't many combos that beat us and we should give V the chance to make a mistake. AA alone offsets the times we run into a bigger flush and I don't believe anyone is folding top set. Whatever other random stuff he might call with is just gravy.
With this being low stakes there is a lot of people who play a lot of suited cards. This could even be an argument for folding 10Js pre OOP, I wouldnt be shocked if some players turn uo with a lot of Kxss
With this being low stakes there is a lot of people who play a lot of suited cards. This could even be an argument for folding 10Js pre OOP, I wouldnt be shocked if some players turn uo with a lot of Kxss
If we run into Kx weaker than K9 here, then in the future you should squeeze mercilessly with any suited broadways because V is opening way too wide UTG. We only want to fold JTs if V is opening too narrow. As Vs play wider, we can raise wider. The reason for flatting pre is that our hand is playable, but Vs range is relatively strong.
turn check i get, flop went x-x-b, turn goes x-x-b-c-? so mp still has to act. x/r would narrow his range significantly and possibly push him out with worse. river though i would either lead for 100 or x/r. im never x/c 3 streets with such a strong hand especially when river improves villains range. think KsKx, AxKs
If we least river 100 do we have to call shoves here or would this have to then be a fold