BB call or shove AJo 13BBs deep (WPT 3k)
WPT 3k. 73 out of 1500 remaining.
Blinds are 15k/30k/30k.
Hero (BB) starts hand with 425k, and has AJo. After posting ante has 13 bigs.
LJ (750k). Young player in a hoodie, seems solid. Opens to 60k
BTN (500k). Older guy who generally seems to want to see flops and not go all in, probably calling here wider than he should. Flats.
Folds to hero in BB (with AJo). Can we shove here? Call?
Follow up if we call. Do we consider stabbing on a low flop, say 238r?
7 Replies
Slam dunk shove pre. If you decide to just call I don't think there are many flops where leading will work out well for you.
yeah, I think shoving is fine, even a solid / good LJ open will have enough suited Ax/Kx and suited (and offsuit) broadway that you should get a lot of folds. You're only really in trouble against AQ+/JJ+. The ranges I can find have LJ opening 23% of hands here; even if LJ shaves a little off the bottom of that, AQ+ / JJ+ is 4.2% of hands. And TT-66 is only about 2.5%. So even if we round LJ down to 21% or so, you are in trouble 20% of the time, flipping (if he calls that wide, he might fold 77-66) 8.5% of the time, and the rest of the time you should take it down, especially with your description of the button caller. And shoving 13BB and picking up 5.5BB without showdown is pretty valuable at this stage.
If I haven't been 3-betting much (and have shown no hands or only big hands) I will shove here.
If I have been 3-betting a bit then it will depend on the type of 3-bet hands that I have shown. So if they have all been TT+/AQ+ I will shove here. If I have shown any weakish hands like A5s/87s then I will likely just call here. And there are times when because I have been 3-betting a lot that I won't do it here because I could easily be put on a wide range.
But I will never donk on the flop. I would wait to see if it checks through (as BTN can have a PP and bet)
If it checks through the flop and the turn is another low card then I will lead out and hope to take it down.
If you've been seen 3-bet bluffing then that makes it more likely you get called by a hand you dominate. If you haven't then that's going to tighten the calling ranges to only hands that beat you. I'm not sure of your reasoning here-- it makes more sense with hands that are theoretically optimal shoves but likely to be behind when called and still play well postflop (something like KTs), rather than something with lots of raw equity that's difficult to play unless you flop top pair and is probably ahead now.
If you've been seen 3-bet bluffing then that makes it more likely you get called by a hand you dominate. If you haven't then that's going to tighten the calling ranges to only hands that beat you. I'm not sure of your reasoning here-- it makes more sense with hands that are theoretically optimal shoves but likely to be behind when called and still play well postflop (something
Nath, I agree with this. But I think that Rick's reasoning is that he has more FE if he hasn't been 3-bet bluffing a lot; and he can then more likely pick up the pot without variance.
Though I felt that LJ was solid, I neglected to mention that I hadn’t seen him active at all. But that didn’t mean much bc I wasn’t at the table very long. Regardless there were a few people who might (based on stack size) obviously be looking to shove, including me, so I’m sure LJ wasn’t opening extra wide.
I shoved. LJ didn’t seem exceptionally happy, but he rehoved. He had AQo. Gg me.
The runout was all low cards and I couldn’t help but think if only I had flatted, maybe I could’ve won the hand in the end.
The last point about leading on a low flop - is your reasoning that by flatting you are representing a range with a lot of low cards in it?
Personally I'm not convinced and would check.....
