NL200 KK 3way pot
Hey all, PT4 put an error on this hand so I don't have the generated history...
I open to 2bb on LJ(109bb) with KhKs, HJ (150bb) calls and CO (75bb) calls. So pot is 7.5bb
Flop: Qh 7H 9d
Hero Cbet to 3bb, LJ calls and CO raises to 19.13bb.
What do I do here?
If I call, then I am giving HJ decent odds to call and if he calls pot would be about 72bb and CO would only have 50bb left, and if HJ folds pot is still about 1SPR on turn.
I think we can assume HJ doesn't have QQ, 99 since he didn't 3bet, and 77 since he didnt raise cbet. I assume he could have some KQ or QJ, some Ax of hearts, K10, KJ, or J10 of hearts. Hands that might benefit from closing out the action after the raise.
CO is obviously wider though he is not likely to have AQ, or KQ since he would likely 3bet those given the HJ call. That means he either has something like QJ, Q10, J10hearts, 910hearts, KJ of hearts, and (if my math is right) 9 combos of Q7 and 9 combos of Q9, as well as 9 combos of 79. So in that case there are 27 combos of 2 pair hands, and 3 combos of sets (7s). So there are 30 combos that beat us.
CO also has 12 combos of KQ, 16 combos of K10, 16 combos of KJ, 16 combos of J10 as well as a bunch of Ax heart hands. lets say A10 - A5 hearts so another 6 combos. That brings hands that dont have us beat to 56 (if my math is right).
So there are 30 combos that are better than us and 56 that dont. So what is the play here? Call and see what happen on the turn, or is there any grounds to jam here given the hand combos and the fact that if I call the flop bet SPR will basically be 1, and I don't really want HJ to call behind.
2 Replies
First off, I think your combo math is off. Most people aren't playing Q7o and 97o in this position. Although it is possible at the very low stakes. Personally, I'd include Q9o and ax the rest. Your draw range is wrong, they aren't raising every draw in this spot. They would call with the majority of those hands.
I gave our opponent 99, 77, every suited two pair, Q9o, AQ, a couple of NFDs, and all of the combo draws and..
we're at 48% equity with the Kh
and 46% equity without
The breakeven point for shoving is 45% equity when we have no fold equity in this spot. So obviously it's marginal either way and certain assumptions can tip the scale tremendously.
I gave him 77 but not 99 because, more often than not in this game villains are not going to call behind to go 3 way with 99, but you are probably right.
So I ended up calling and HJ folded. Turn was a brick and villain jammed. I folded. He wrote that he had 7-9o for 2 pair. Obviously it was a good fold but it feels sick to call flop to fold turn given the draws but from my experience the players are an odd combination of never bluffing and never folding hands to bluffs.
I was very tempted to call it off because IÂ’ve been running so badly, something like -12 buy-ins over the last week, and on the month half of my AA and KK hands that went to flop have lost both before and at showdown. But I sort of told myself that I would be tilt calling given that villain raised flop and jammed turnÂ…
Now, what equity would I need to jam here and is it lower given that I am out of position? I assume also that it helps somewhat that I have the Kh since I can make a set and not run into a flush in the process!
