It's 4 handed, but can we bluff this river in last position?

turn looks like raise to me

Fold pre, raise the turn, AP I’d check back

Preflop is really bad, even with the button.

I would not raise the turn, even with a combo draw, because the board is too wet. It is unlikely you will get two folds.

River, it is possible you are good. Bluffing would be to try to get 2 pair to fold, which is difficult with missed flush draw possible.

Going back to preflop a lot of our range is suited aces and pocket pairs. Maybe some suited broadway. All these hands have showdown value (assuming we folded our whiffed pairs), and we have plenty of Acc hands. We are at the bottom of range, I think we should be betting. It doesn’t have to be large, we are going to be very value heavy in this spot.

Bet 150.

Bet 150 on the river as a bluff? We have top pair. Are we trying to get a better top pair, pocket aces, or 2-pair to fold to 30% pot? If you are going to turn top pair into a bluff 4-ways, I would think you would need to go large.

The board is KQJT our top pair is very little showdown value. We need some bluffs. 2 pair is most likely going to fold. Pocket aces would be the nuts. Our value is the nuts and wants to bet small because it’s hard to get paid.

Not a fan of the overcall preflop; I'd rather squeeze or fold with this hand.

Flop Standard.

Turn seems like a pretty clear raise.

As played, I'd just check back our TP otr and take our (tiny) showdown value. The moment to (semi-)bluff was ott.

Grunch:

PRE - kinda meh to over-call K6s, even on the BTN, no? Feels like a spot we should probably play 3B or fold. But maybe it's okay.

FLOP - why is the BB donking multi-way? How are we ranging him? What does it mean when the PFR and HJ call? Would it be insane for us to raise right now?

I dunno. The BB donk is weird, but LJ and HJ look really capped. I'm guessing BB has 2P, a set, or maybe J9cc. We could have decent enough equity here vs BB to want to get this heads up.

TURN - things just get stranger. I think folding, calling, and raising are all logically defensible options. We could be drawing really thin. Seems like someone has to have AK, AJ, or AXcc here.

RIVER - seems like a spot where Ax might check from EP or MP to induce because a bet can't get called. Think we should probably just check it back.

I think 150 is a bit too small for the river bluff, even 250 probably gets significantly less hero calls from random 2 pair. Esp. as it checked to us.

Would assume GTO/robots would bet bigger than that though.

But, yeh, what OmahaDonk said ... a lot of our range that gets to the river this way is going to be NFD clubs. Not sure the best way to work out what to turn into bluffs... but given K6cc is a similar hand that played similar, it's an obvious candidate and the bad top pair showdown value seems tiny.

I don't think we can credibly rep AK on the turn by raising. The best hand we'd have is K9. And K9 isn't always going to raise when LJ could have AK. K9 probably wouldn't bet river all the time.

We shouldn't be getting to the river with very many hands that want to bet. It would all seem to be AXcc combos. We definitely shouldn't be showing up with K6s.

I don't think 2P is folding to $150 ever in this situation. If you're going to bluff, you have to go big. $1 under is way more expensive than $1 "too much". The bet has to be big for the game. People playing $5/$5 with $1200 stacks are going to get pretty curious for $150.

We'd bet $150 with an A because we believe 2P would call a decent amount. Maybe $300 is enough but I'm not feeling great about the spot playing so passive and then suddenly firing the river being IP is really suspect.

Raise pre, raise the flop, raise the turn - we've had so many opportunities to get aggressive that were way better imo. If we're going to bluff, I think we have to go big and risk someone check/bluffcatching with 9x or getting trappy with Ax. I'd never get here this way, but if I did I'd probably just check back.

I would 3b pre - you're super deep IP calling is terrible. As played on the flop I'd raise. Think you played this extremely passive for whatever reason and could of folded out better hands by the river.

This sort of reminds me of a hand I played in a recent session. I can't remember all the action, only that we got to the river with four people still in the hand, on a four-flush board. Action checked around to me, with a busted straight draw, and I just checked it back, figuring someone had to be sand-bagging something.

Sure enough, the guy to my immediate right sheepishly turns over the A of that suit. He checked the nuts, even after two people checked to him. I guess he was just praying I'd stab at it.

We all laughed. Reg says "we're not going to bet your hand for you." I say, "you should feel bad about yourself."

Just seems to me that someone has to have an ace here, and would just be checking it from EP / MP hoping someone stabs. We can bluff, maybe, but it's hard to find an efficient size.

3b or fold pre, flop and turn is good, check back river

FWIW, I don't think there's anything flagrantly wrong with your thought process. The missing piece is your read of what each of your opponents does holding AX on the river. If you think they're likely to bet AX, our bluff should get through a lot. If you think they're ever checking to induce, then we should always check back.

It's interesting that LJ didn't raise on the turn or river, as the PFR. If we're trying to deconstruct what happened here, my best guess is that BB & HJ were giving up, and expecting the LJ to bet. When he checks it again, if he does have AK, he's counting on HJ or you to try to rep it.

So, maybe it just comes down to your read on the LJ. If our read is that he's LAG, I'd think he'd raise turn with AK at some frequency, and if he doesn't, when BB checks the river, he'd be more likely to bet AK for value. So when he checks, and HJ also checks, it gives you the greenlight to make this play.

At least you went big, sometimes you can make up for a sub par spot with brute force.

I take exception to the logic OTT. Very frequently, we don't want Vs to fold the turn. We want them to be paying for draws, and it sets us up for stealing a bigger pot OTR. In this case, we have a lot of draws dominated, and if a club or A rolls off we want the pot bigger. So the fact V is probably calling a chunky bet OTT is good for us. Then when the river hits, we can even more credibly rep Ax and still push V off when the best card in the deck hits for his hand.

Sometimes the primary purpose of a turn bluff is to tee up a more effective bluff on the river. I often intentionally size my turn bets to keep Vs in with a lot of garbage, because you can always get garbage to fold river.

Betting turn also comes with the benefit that it might save you from bluffing. Imagine V has AJcc or QQ and you raise turn, there's a good chance he's going to 3! big and you can just fold. The biggest drawback of raising turn is that you might get pushed off your equity, and that's a concern if you're in a game with an aggressive opponent. Against gen pop, we can typically assume 3!s OTT will be rare and be underbluffed. So we can raise knowing the real monsters will 3! and a lot of pairs/draws will flat and be ready to fold river if they don't improve.

Sub and Yami, how much would you raise the turn?

If you’re afraid to get coolered with the second nuts, just fold K6s preflop. Play nutted hands or lower stakes. It’s easier to play K6s uncapped. You can open K6s over limpers preflop. Calling preflop forks your range and makes you transparent.

I rather like about $250. That puts the pot a bit shy of $700 while H has about $900 behind for the river jam.

This hand kind of illustrates why playing K6s multi-way sucks. Every decision point feels marginal with so many players in the pot. A club is very good obviously, but it seems like almost any player in this hand could have Ax of clubs and on a club we could have set ourselves to get stacked in an unnecessary hand. Probably better to just wait until we get this hand in the big blind, no?

I think that we don't really represent a lot with a flop or turn raise. Flop raise only representing QTs, 44, or a rare TT that didn't squeeze. Turn raise also has the same problem. What do we have? K9s? QJs? 98s? Don't think I'd even peel the flop with a naked gutshot to the third nuts. Raising QJs on the turn seems like an overplay.

The river cards turns our hand into a good bluff candidate. It looks like we have Ac9c- all day. We're not bluffing with 2 pair or a 9, so our opponents could conclude that the only logical bluffing hands are hands like 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, and apparently most KcXc combos. From a technical aspect, it would seem that bluffing the low suited connectors would be better because holding the Kc blocks a lot of the folding range. I think stuff like that matters a lot more when you're trying to bluff 3 players.

On the river, I think you subconsciously recognize that it's not a good hand to be bluffing for a more normal sizing, as we're too likely to get called by a 9. If we had an Ace, would we actually bet this sizing? Probably not. I think I'd rather check this one back and bluff those lower club hands. Then we could size down slightly to say $350-$400 and probably have a more profitable play over the long run.