5NL OESD and FD IP facing 3bet
Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 121 BB (VPIP: 25.88, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 179)
Hero (BB): 134 BB
UTG: 67.6 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 65)
CO: 116.4 BB (VPIP: 24.19, PFR: 21.31, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 62)
BTN: 128.2 BB (VPIP: 43.65, PFR: 14.21, 3Bet Preflop: 3.49, Hands: 203)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7♥ 6♥
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, SB raises to 4 BB, Hero raises to 13.6 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 9.6 BB
Flop: (29.2 BB, 2 players) 9♥ 2♥ 8♠
SB checks, Hero bets 14.6 BB, SB raises to 33.8 BB, , HERO?
Spoiler
Hero raises to 120.4 BB and is all-in[/color], SB calls 73.6 BB and is all-in
Turn: (244 BB, 2 players) A♣
River: (244 BB, 2 players) A♦
SB shows A♥ T♥ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 64%, Flop 65%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows 7♥ 6♥ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 36%, Flop 35%, Turn 14%)
SB wins 231.8 BB
Villain looks like a solid 26/21 TAG over 179 hands.
Villain has raised limpers 50% (3 of 6 opportunities) and folded to 3bet 75% (6 of 8). I’ve 3bet him twice this session, with villain folding both times; no other history. I'm 30/22 over 49 hands this session, so have a LAGish image to villain.
Line Check
Open: I’m fine with my 3bet. Villain’s raise does not seem strong, and with his history of folding to 3bets I like my chances of picking up pot uncontested and have good equity/position postflop if he calls. Given this, how is my sizing?
Flop: I flop OESD+FD, so bet seems fine. How is sizing here?
Facing raise: I’m never sure when I have a huge draw but not a made hand. Calling seems weak and makes a SPR of less than 1 on the turn, so if I miss and villain barrels I’m playing a guessing game. OTOH, if I get it in here I am behind a lot of his range, e.g. sets, bigger draws, etc.
Should I have checked back flop? As played, what do I do?
2 Replies
You're not gonna win the pot with 7-high ever. At the same time, you have an absolute monster - a powerful combo draw. Only thing you could wish for is 8♥ - to have an open ended straight flush draw, which has a chance to kill a FH/quads. Even against a A-high FD, which has you dominated, you still have 35%.
This is the best SB range I could come up with
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.54% 42.54% 0.00% 7h6h
MP3 57.46% 57.46% 0.00% QQ-88, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h
With this much equity and money in the pot and also including 5% rake, I figured you need 23.5% fold equity to be break even - actually I don't think you have that much. But you do have position, thanks to which you can realize your equity much better.
With 8♥ you would need 17% fold equity, so a bit less, cause your equity is now 45.6%. Btw, him not x/r with QQ-JJ only makes your equity plummet to 37%. I was mistaken at first to think that this is an easy stackoff at 121 bb deep.
Your fold equity here might be no more than 10%, which requires you to have 48.4%+ equity. That means JJ+ or Ah8h and ofc sets/two pair. 8h7h is close, almost 47%. Funny thing is, AJhh has more equity than AQhh, which has more equity than AKhh - 47%, so also close enough.
Final verdict: 7h6h doesn't seem to have enough equity for a stackoff, so just use your pot odds + position and call.
Pre is not a play i make myself personally - unless maybe from LP etc, but i just feel tbat we're likely to get callers and be in a tough spot post flop with an inflated pot and it will be difficult to get to SD and unlikely 7 high will provide us with much show down value.
As played i like a call and see how the board develops on the turn. This is pretty much the best flop for you in terms of not flopping a made hand. I call the raise.. see what line villain takes - i doubt shipping returns many folds tbh.
