3b pot ip, Turn?
20NL - clubgg - ante
Turn we are checking back? or shoving here?
Preflop anybody playing differently? MP+1 looks like a fish?
Hero (MP): 99.5 BB
MP+1: 113.45 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 15)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.98, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 53)
BTN: 110.3 BB (VPIP: 20.54, PFR: 13.39, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 113)
SB: 198.45 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 19.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 96)
BB: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG: 99 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
UTG+1: 192.05 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 15)
8 players post ante of 0.5 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 5.5 BB) Hero has 9♠ 9♥
fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, MP+1 calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 15 BB, fold, Hero calls 11.5 BB, MP+1 calls 11.5 BB
Flop: (50 BB, 3 players) 4♣ 3♥ 7♥
SB bets 16.5 BB, Hero calls 16.5 BB, fold
Turn: (83 BB, 2 players) 2♥
SB checks,
Hero???
1 Reply
I don't think we should be calling this preflop to be honest. Your minimum call in this situation is QQ, maybe AQs 50% of the time and 65s 25% of the time. 99 can be a call with a small frequency too, but better to have some info about opponents - if MP+1 hs the potential to be the fish, we can try. On he other hand, having a fish acting behind you is a limiting factor.
Flop: as played, you have to call, Villain can easily have overcards.
Turn: this one is tricky. You might still be ahead, but Ax hands now have a 10-outer against you. Protecting 21% of a big pot seems like a huge deal, on the other hand he still has JJ+ here, FD is also possible, AhKx has a 19-outer against you. Though if he has JJ/QQ without ♥, then you may still get him on the river and hope for a check back.
I don't think your hand can withstand more than 2 typical streets of value, in 4-bet pot it's only one.
Check back and if river comes a blank a he shoves, then it might be a sigh call. In almost every other case it's a xb, unless you hit your 9.
