Is this a good river bet? Pokerstars 1k

I was watching this final table and I was curious about this bet.
Preflop standard open, SB call, BB call.
Flop all check
Turn SB leads for 3.5 BB , BB folds, co calls.
River :
Why is he leading for full pot? What is he intending to get called by? I can't see anything that can call that he is ahead of. Is a smaller sizing/ fold to allin the better play?
5 Replies
The bettor here has the best straight and can get called by a queen. May also get called by trip Tens. Although it is always a risk on a paired board, of course. As played, villain did not bet the flop, which rules out JJ and QQ, but could be JQ (slow-playing a flopped straight). You would expect villain to bet a ten, but on such a coordinated board, perhaps top pair checks for pot control (I wouldn't check an AT or KT and certainly not T8 here) and to avoid getting stacked by a straight. Hero here won't put villain on JT, T9, or T8 (because he would have bet the flop a lot), but it's certainly possible for villain to have a queen and is trying to get max value from a queen and looking bluffy to induce a call from a ten. Anything else is folding to any bet, so why not go big? Hero folds to the responsive shove, but loses only 5-7BB more than if he had bet around half-pot for value. Doesn't seem that crazy to me.
A more interesting part of the hand is T8 checking behind flopped 2 pair with a covering stack in a PKO.
3827362, out of curiosity, could you share with us how the hand played out? Have a pretty good idea, but would like to confirm.
When somebody makes a pot size bet on the river it is very polarizing. Which means it can be a very strong hand or it can be a bluff. In this case, because of the river, SB can have a straight or he could have missed a flush draw and is hoping to take it down from somebody who can't beat a straight. Or SB could have been leading out on the turn as a bluff with like a small PP.
The success of this type of strategy often depends on how frequently the person bluffs. If the person is an overbluffer then they will get called a lot. If they are balanced they will get called sometimes. And if they underbluff they will rarely be called (in this case by less than a straight). There is no way to know from just looking at this hand what the image of the SB has been at the table.
In this particular case, as has been noted, the objective is to win the max amount from the CO if they have a Q or a 7. But note that CO will also likely call if they have a Tx hand that isn't a boat or even with hands like AJ/KJ. It should also be noted that CO will not be betting on the river with trip Tens because of the potential straight out there so betting here is critical. It is clearly a bet/fold or check/call situation and it looks like bet/fold will make the most in the long run especially when the bet is pot sized.
The late position player's hand is underrepped here, which worked out for them this time. When they check back flop they will have a lot of hands like QT, Q9, Q8s that pretty much snap call the big river bet. They will also have plenty of potential hands that could call as a bluff catcher like AT, KT, AA, KK.
The late position player is generally more likely to bet flop with many of the hands that have turned into a full house by the river. Hands like sets often want to start building a pot right away, and two pair doesn't love giving a free card.
Anyway on the river I could see an argument for a smaller bet being better, because the board is generally under bluffed. I guess the SB kind of needs to fire with most missed flush draws and also some hands with at least a pair to find an appropriate number of bluffs. The pot-sized river bet seems fine though. Obviously you fold to a shove as you have your own full houses to call a shove with.
A more interesting part of the hand is T8 checking behind flopped 2 pair with a covering stack in a PKO.
3827362, out of curiosity, could you share with us how the hand played out? Have a pretty good idea, but would like to confirm.
Sorry the late reply. The player with T8 went all in and the player with KQ called