Flopping top 2 and then 4th heart hits the turn...
$5/$5 8 handed, with $10 mandatory utg straddle
V is new to the table, but is on his second buy-in. He is unknown to H, but is playing very loose preflop, and already posted a dead $20 twice in utg+1. He is a middle-aged Indian.
Effective stacks $800.
2 middle position limps.
V limps in late position.
H BB AsQc raises to $85.
Everyone but V folds.
($190) Ah Qh 8h
H bets $45
V calls
($270) 3h
H checks
V checks
($270) 7c
H???
14 Replies
Check and hope he checks back. Could maybe bet $50 but that could induce a bluff which would be hard to defend against.
I checked.
V bets $200.
He looks nervous for a an instant. I say "you look nervous." He says "I have at least one pair."
Speech is kinda interesting. I always try to think where it is meant to lead you. Like he could have said, yeah I'm a little nervous or, well i guess you should call then. Or said nothing. Instead he lead us away from that and gave himself an uncapped range.
I'd generally expect v to go for value ott with kh or even j. We have a fairly big pot pre. But only small money has gone in post. Seems we'd like to do this on the turn when you will be calling with sets and 2p almost for sure. Like, against your exact hand I think it's more profitable to bet the turn for sure.
Also his limp call range is probably not going to include a lot of stuff like AK off or kq off k9 off or A7 off.
It might include some Ax suited, 89 suited, 44 etc.
I'd guess 89c folds the flop though. But maybe the small flop bet occasionally leads to some weird floats like that or 5s5d or whatever cuz he thinks he can take it away a ton. The dude did limp call $80, so he doesn't like folding.
QxJh makes pretty good sense. KhTx or khjx maybe.
I think you're good often enough to call. I can see an awful lot of Ax suited even though many people check those down as well as unusual floats.
You could raise in case he has jh or is turning a small h into a bluff. But you'd have to be pretty sure and I think the banter works against you at that point.
Moreover, if our premise is that this guy hates folding it's not a good idea to bluff him off a flush.
PRE - I'm confused: was there a $20 straddle this hand?
With this guy limping late position, I'd want to raise bigger, I think.
FLOP - I get that we should bet small, but I think we should either check to see what he does, or bet bigger. He's either got a hand that will call or he'll just fold.
TURN - now I want to check or bet small.
RIVER - Guys like this have such crazy wide ranges, and they will bluff rivers, but they'll usually bluff when we give them rope, or when they're first to act. If we block bet the river, it's a trivial fold if he raises.
80 straddles, no heart. I hatehatehate the dinky, monotone flop
AP, call, lose, I don't care. Laugh at him for only winning 200 IP.
Edit: Doc is right as usual. Bet/folding is how we maximize value vs their passive natures. They usually never bluff enough. (If the middle-aged Indian is drunk, or giving off aggro vibes, dump that: proceed like you're vs people who consider it a mortal sin against masculinty to be bluffed. And are hyperaggro with weak value. Oddball straight draws are fantastic against these Vs.
80 straddles, no heart. I hatehatehate the dinky, monotone flop <b25 bet. A middle aged Indian rec will let you know you're beat. So make that limp-calling-"word not allowed," pay to draw to that 4th heart. Yes, you have top 2 pair. H is still happy to win now.AP, call, lose, I don't care. Laugh at him for only winning 200 IP.Edit: Doc is right as usual. Bet/folding is
Feels like doc is right half the time, at best. Let's not put undue pressure on doc to live up to a reputation he didn't earn.
Results:
Spoiler
I call his $200 river bet. He shows 8c 5h.
think u can bet like 10-20% otr. unsure what to do vs raise beyond figure it out

i think best exercise is to ask urself what checking this hand does for your range. you can still call all of your ax / one pairs, and the presence of 2 pair in checking range isnt really going to affect ip's strategy (2p is not a trap on 4fl). so if theres enough value to be had via block you really want to do that with this hand instead of turning in into the equivalent of a5 via checking
if you're worried about losing some kind of bluff spaz levelling war vs rec otr (lol), include some hands stronger than AQ in the blocking range (thinner value and some b3bs), or call whatever amount of time doesnt let him bluff u with atc
note: there are plenty of villains / nodelocks where the highest ev play with this hand will be to check the river but there's really not much to suggest that in the thread or description at all, and your reason for suboptimal play cannot be risk aversion
I go 150 pre
Flop: I like the small bet you made. I probably bet range with that sort of size. He likely over folds so it will be profitable with any air hands you have that missed the flop.
When you bet small on the flop and he doesn't raise he is usually capped. If you bet big on the flop he might just call with his strongest hands like flushes, so you won't know what to do on blank turns. So an advantage of betting small is getting him to raise and reveal when he has a flush. If he just calls and the turn is a blank you can then bet big with this hand (and flushes plus hands like AK) for value.
Turn: Heart turn is obviously horrible for our hand, which just went from a strong value hand to basically a bluff catcher. There's no reason to bet and turn our hand into a bluff. Check is the only play.
River: Against a presumably weak passive opponent I do think a small 1/5 pot block bet has merit. I probably do that and expect to get called a fair amount by Ax and Qx. Another advantage is that this type of opponent will usually just call with a lot of weaker flushes, so you often get to showdown against flushes for cheaper than when you check and face a larger bet.
As played I ask myself whether our opponent is capable of turning a pair into a bluff? For him to call the flop bet he's usually going to have either a pair of some sort or a heart. So unless I think he's capable of turning something like Qx or a pocket pair into a bluff I likely fold to the chunky river bet.
In this case I think the blocker effect of having top two with a queen in our hand actually works against us. I would prefer to call with Ax top pair that doesn't block Qx which he could potentially be bluffing with to get us off an ace.
I think when he bets 3/4 on river he has 2nd or 3rd nuts which is congruent with his way ahead way behind turn check. I did see results and I want to say that’s pretty amazing.
Bet flop to around 80 or just check. Betting 45 gave V 5.2:1 pot odds to call the flop with Xh.
Obviously check turn. After the turn checks thru, make a small bet on the river and fold to a raise.
AP on the river, I’m probably calling given that V posted dead to 20 in UTG+1 twice. He’s a bad player. He could have AX.
I would have just turned your hand into a bluff at some point on turn/river.