NL25 - AK in 3-bet pot wihth TPTK + GS
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
CO ($25.87) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 26.5% | AGG: 57.9% | Flop Agg: 60% | Turn Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 16.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 34]
HERO ($37.35)
SB ($25.33) [VPIP: 10.7% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 28]
BB ($25.35) [VPIP: 30.2% | PFR: 30.2% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 54]
UTG ($27.71) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 15.8% | Hands: 33]
HJ ($19.94) [VPIP: 71.8% | PFR: 12.8% | AGG: 31.8% | Hands: 39]
Dealt to Hero: K♦ A♣
UTG Folds, HJ Calls $0.25, CO Raises To $1.25, HERO Raises To $3.58, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Folds, CO Calls $2.33
Hero SPR on Flop: [2.87 effective]
Flop ($7.76): T♥ A♠ J♠
CO Checks, HERO Bets $2.57 (Rem. Stack: $31.20), CO Raises To $5.14 (Rem. Stack: $17.15), HERO Calls $2.57 (Rem. Stack: $28.63)
Turn ($18.04): T♥ A♠ J♠ 6♥
CO Bets $5.42 (Rem. Stack: $11.73), HERO Folds
Spoiler
CO wins: $16.90
Villain seems to be a reg. I am puzzled, cause this is "my board" and yet he x/r, which signals strength,but then again - his sizing says something else. With the odds and the position, I decided tto call and evaluate.
OTT it's hard to call and fold the river, so I fold now.
Is there any other way to play this?
6 Replies
Guess we can't confirm with any certainty if villain is a reg or not from the sample size however villain does have a full stack but his post flop line certainly doesn't suggest so given the min raise?
I can go either way on the flop with betting vs checking however is smacks hero's range and I'm theory doesn't favour villains calling range so much - I go 33% or so.
The turn card is a brick and we unblock both available flush draws so given sizing I'm calling turn again and then evaluating on the river - calling the flop and folding to such small turn barrel is surely burning money? Particularly on bricks.. I see this line from fishy villains that were hoping to get a fold vs the cbet and are puzzled when facing resistance / or trying to set the price to hit their draw potentially.
What range are you giving to villain here?
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.24% 30.72% 2.52% AcKd
MP3 66.76% 64.24% 2.52% JJ-TT, AJs-ATs, KQs, 98s, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AJo, KQo
There could be more of the FDs as well. Can't see him doing that with worth aces, like AQ. Turn slightly improves us, but not much:
Board:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 24.83% 23.48% 1.34% AcKd
MP3 75.17% 73.83% 1.34% JJ-TT, AJs-ATs, KQs, 98s, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 8s7s, AJo, KQo
Not sure if he plays all of his draws this aggressively though. But if yes, then we have 34.88% on the turn.
On the turn, he has slightly under pot size left in the stack. Taking rake into consideration, if he jams, we need 34% of equity. I gave him a really solid range, full of straights, sets, two pair and the best combo draws (at least FD+pair or a GS), there are no pure FDs here, but I left one OESD. And against that, it's 31.6% so very, very close. That should have been a call against a loose aggressive player.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.61% 30.48% 1.14% AcKd
MP3 68.39% 67.25% 1.14% JJ-TT, AJs-ATs, KQs, 98s, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AJo, KQo
You just have to randomize turn vs reg. Too much of your range is AK to fold pure. It's a pretty shitty spot but min raise flop small bet turn is just so good reg that folding range is just running too much risk of getting run over. Like very likely he doesn't give you credit for JJ/TT/ KQs when you go so big preflop
Ah ok apologies. Thought it was a 4-bet. Yeah your sizing preflop is fine but it means folding turn is horrible. I would min 3-bet on the flop and fold to a jam. Calling flop calling time and reevaluating river probably folding seems good too.
