NL25 AJ - TPTK in 3-bet pot vs nit's x/r
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
SB ($25.09) [VPIP: 24.8% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 28.3% | Hands: 131]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 15.9% | AGG: 54.5% | Hands: 71]
UTG ($25.34) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 23.5% | Hands: 91]
HJ ($48.15) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 30% | 3Bet: 8.1% | 4Bet: 25% | Cold Call: 4.8% | Hands: 97]
CO ($26.70) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 28.1% | Hands: 146]
HERO ($38.54)
Dealt to Hero: J♣ A♥
UTG Raises To $0.63, HJ Calls $0.63, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $2.50, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Folds, HJ Calls $1.87
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.03 effective]
Flop ($5.98): 7♥ J♠ 4♥
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $2.99 (Rem. Stack: $33.05), HJ Raises To $11.96 (Rem. Stack: $33.69), HERO ? ? ?
Before that hand, his stats look even "nittier". He cold calls the fish and then calls my raise. Looks a lot like a pocket pair and some SCs / Axs, maybe AJs-ATs.
Now he x/r the flop. I have TPTK, he probably doesn't have JJ. Most likely doesn't play TPTK that way. I have A♥ which allows me to stick to the pot for a bit more, but this also means he cannot do this with a FD other than K♥ Q♥ or K♥ J♥.
Do I call and proceed on ♥ / J / A or just fold now?
3 Replies
If you are gonna fold AJ. You are saying that he will never x/r anything but a set or he could a rare semi-bluff. But his Flop aggression says that he could bluff "even if he is passive". 30% not 10%. There is all sorts of draws that he could have! (He could have JJ btw)
Call
Its one of those spots where I'm not particularly overjoyed once nits start putting in raises - we can't really be too generous with the range we assign either as nits will be small - mid pocket pair heavy here plus hero hold Ah to further reduce what already would be a small portion of a semi bluff range.
id say it would be fair to at least assume villains range is the below
Board: 7♥4♥J♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.58% 62.58% 0.00% { JJ, 77, 44, KQs, 65s }
MP3 37.42% 37.42% 0.00% { AhJc }
If we re raise I just feel we only accomplish allowing villain to continue with a range that crushes us and folding out all the junk (i don't see too many bluffs either).
I fold here but I'm a not
If you are gonna fold AJ. You are saying that he will never x/r anything but a set or he could a rare semi-bluff. But his Flop aggression says that he could bluff "even if he is passive". 30% not 10%. There is all sorts of draws that he could have! (He could have JJ btw)
Call
I didn't have stats other than VPIP/PFR/3-bet at the time. I do agree that stats shouldn't be payed much attention to after a small sample size tho.
Its one of those spots where I'm not particularly overjoyed once nits start putting in raises - we can't really be too generous with the range we assign either as nits will be small - mid pocket pair heavy here plus hero hold Ah to further reduce what already would be a small portion of a semi bluff range. id say it would be fair to at least assume villains range is the below
I forgot about possible 65s. I gave him K♥ Q♥ and K♠ Q♠ as semibluffs (there could be more of them). In such case, I have 31% of equity and it can go up to 38% on ♥ turns, other than 3 and 8 (if we think he really has 65s).
However, now that I am looking at this - he could also have plenty of other FDs, gutshots+FD/BDFD.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.27% 44.19% 0.08% AhJc
MP3 55.73% 55.65% 0.08% JJ, 77, 44, 65s, AhQh, KhQh, KsQs, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h8h, 9s8s
So basically try to spike a ♥, avoid overcards other than ♥, be careful on 3 and 8 😃
//edit: I have just noticed we are 152 BBs deep, I didn't see that earlier :O That means nut hunting becomes more important and his raise size also looks serious. I would much rather have AhKh/AhQh here.
