Can 3b shoving K4o knowing you’ll get called possibly be +EV???
3 blind game. $2/3 and an UTG straddle from $6 to $15. UTG elects $15 on this hand. 8 handed.
V is a legit, according to Hoyle maniac. Hand dynamic should be enough to prove it. 30’s WG. ~$2,500
H $330 BTN. Have no history with V other than last 2 orbits.
OTTH
V is in the process of seating changing to H’s immediate right. Slides out a stack of red chips for a $100 blind bet before the cards are dealt.
Folds to H OTB who looks down at K4o. SB, BB and UTG straddle consist of 1 decent reg who views V as a maniac and H as a TP player, and 2 rec players who won’t properly adjust to the dead money meaning they’ll likely treat it as a $100 bet instead of a $100 blind.
Obviously folding here seems pretty standard. But H is a sucker for dead money. If H shoves and the blinds fold, V will call it off like 95% of the time without looking at his cards.
Can stuffing it in here with K4o possibly be +EV?
Buy in more and wait for better spots????
I rather you have Ax here lol.
K4o is only 52.33% vs. ATC. There's $20 from the blinds but there's also rake if we win. Worse, there's 3 to act. This is a fold for me.
The other players to act may be calling tight, but they are calling with strong hands. Haven't done the math, but A5s might be a fold. Really bad to play like a maniac just because he is.
I actually don’t hate it. Fuggit, it’s good for the game. GITFIT
Yeah I’m jamming.
It is obviously significantly $EV-. You are getting cold called by at least AQ+/99+. Is the idea to take an expected loss because it is good for the game?
There used to be tools like propokertools to run K4o against some calling range and a random hand. You would also have to consider that some times someone will raise and the maniac will fold and you wind up HU versus a premium hand with some dead money.
It is obviously significantly $EV-. You are getting cold called by at least AQ+/99+. Is the idea to take an expected loss because it is good for the game?There used to be tools like propokertools to run K4o against some calling range and a random hand. You would also have to consider that some times someone will raise and the maniac will fold and you wind up HU versus a premium
You would be surprised how strong a hand they’ll fold when the nit shoves his stack.
It's a losing play in $EV if they call 3%, JJ+/AK. You are taking a risk someone isn't calling as tight as you think.
This may be completely wrong-headed, but my default heuristic in spots like this is to revert to the understanding that in a cash game, we have no incentive to enter a pot with a sub-par hand whenever we're not in the blinds and someone raises to an absurdly large size.
Even if he's raising dark, we still don't need to get involved. We can fold and let the blinds decide if they want to defend.
Hypothetically, if this guy does this every hand, eventually someone is going to have a hand strong enough to get it in. We don't know when that will be. Even on the BTN, we still have to dodge three opponents who could wake up with something. I'd rather be in the sraddle or BB here, than on the BTN.
It's close. Really similar to situations in Donkament Land. I think in a vacuum there's not quite enough dead money, but I also think H's image can do some heavy lifting here. 5% edge over ATC is still an edge, lol.
Is H able to reload no problem, or are they busto for the session if this fails?
It's a losing play in $EV if they call 3%, JJ+/AK. You are taking a risk someone isn't calling as tight as you think.
>90% of the time, none of next three players have a 3% hand. When they do, H looks like an idiot, ofc.
Omaha makes a great point about everyone else likely wanting to get out of the way. For this hand. S*#t's going to go bananas afterwards when H flips their hand over.
Edit: with card removal, 99+/AQ+ is only 61 combos (68 w/o). 61/1326 = ~4.6% 0.954^4 = 86.8% chance none of the three have any of those hands.
So, .868 of the time, H wins 52.7% of 300 + 300 + 20-ish. 47.3%, they lose. 326.74 - 293.26 --> +$33.48
.132 of the time, H gets called by at least one subsequent, non-maniac V. H wins 20.3% of the time vs ATC and 99+/AQ+. Call the pot 910 ish. 20.3% * 910 = 184.73. 79.7%, H loses 300. -239.1. = -54.37
.868 * 33.48 = 29.06. Minus (.132*-54.37) -->-7.18 from V2 calling. H makes ~21-22 bucks.
As everyone knows by now, I often screw these calcs up. But it should be a +EV push, I think.
Blinds & straddle aren’t calling with anything other than Tier 1, and probably not JJ or AKo, maybe not even QQ. They also have to worry about V coming back over the top just for funzies.
H is very short-stacked for this game, why not see all five cards on a once in a lifetime 52/48 flip? It will also do wonders for his image.
And lawlz at the idea of maniac folding preflop even if all four of them shove. Now he can get even!
Yeah, this game will go crazy if H wins, esp on some runner runner suckout.
This may be completely wrong-headed, but my default heuristic in spots like this is to revert to the understanding that in a cash game, we have no incentive to enter a pot with a sub-par hand whenever we're not in the blinds and someone raises to an absurdly large size. Even if he's raising dark, we still don't need to get involved. We can fold and let the blinds decide if they
Of course you’re right and obviously H snapfolds if this is a standard 1-3 high rake game, or he’s 830eff, or he has a LAG image, or he does these shoves once a month, or V’s wife is standing behind him….
I like where your head is at, but no I wouldn't shove K4o as I don't think we have enough hand equity needing to get through 3 people + always getting called by straddler. Really it's just running an EV equation of how tight the other players are calling.
I'm guessing you could go as light as 44+, Ax, K9o, K7s, QTo, Q9s, JTs (or even wider) just based on how good they are vs a random hand & how tight the other players are probably going to be, but
Kxo with a low kicker is kind of barf territory with no fold equity.
Axo w/ a low kicker doesn't have the best equity either, but it blocks the most common card in the calling range of the other 3.
It is obviously significantly $EV-. You are getting cold called by at least AQ+/99+. Is the idea to take an expected loss because it is good for the game?
The good player's read on H is that he's tight passive ... assuming that's correct I'm folding AQ and JJ. Maybe folding AK and QQ too.
The problem is the bad players might just shrug call wider.
I might shove this suited, also might shove if there was only the blind bet ... although there's some value in people not knowing we'd shove wide here, and given no fold equity it's probably better to just fold than take the flip.
People think we’re getting QQ to fold? What??
You are assuming that the players to act are good enough to incorrectly make a read you are shoving tight and therefore they will shove / call tight, making the push only a little $EV-. Typical amateurs in a low stakes game will see AJs or 88 or whatever and will not be able to fold it.
Number one reason H should jam here is his instincts are screaming at him to do it.
Literally the only time in his life he’ll ever do it, affects nothing longterm.
Again, he’s short in a wild unicorn game.
Couple quick thoughts:
H is obviously never calling the $100. AI or fold.
H has no bankroll or tilt issues.
I also expect the 3 blinds to play extra tight, due to a combo of H’s and V’s images and V’s stack. H should be tight. If a blinds calls with 88 or AQo or something V is very likely to reshove for $2,500 putting the blinds and their $1-1.2k stacks at risk. Effectively V will make the blinds the effective stacks, making H being short less relevant in this particular spot.
So all of this considered, H thinks he has a profitable spot and chuckle-jams.
As Nh,gg mathed, $20 is $20.
Can it be +EV, as Nh, ggs math checks out, (even after subtracting another $5ish for rake). If blinds nit up and call tighter, it becomes more profitable. Though it becomes unprofitable really fast if V looks at his cards or if the blinds loosen up to anything close to hands that should call a 3bb jam.
And then there is the factor that jamming $320 might make you $15 if all your assumptions are right, but you still lose it a lot. Are you going to be in this position frequently enough for results to approach theory? If V is putting in $100 blind, $15 is only 0.15bb, are you shoving all in when your EV is $0.45 in a normal pot? You're risking a lot for a very small amount of EV.
The best reason to do it is if you don't mind risking $320 for the good of the game. If someone wants to go in blind, giving them action is often good for the game. It's always good to let aggressive players know you are willing to look them up light.
Low stakes players don't like to fold preflop and call preflop shoves rediculously light. You probably get called 20% of the time and the shove loses a lot on average.
Are you going to be in this position frequently enough for results to approach theory?No, that’s the whole point. This is literally the bishop buying a lottery ticket with couch change. You’ll also never be in any situation in live poker frequently enough to approach within ten parsecs of theory.
