AQo tp2k but I think I'm beat

Grunch:

I think I know what you mean by V image crafting - he's trying to cultivate the image of an action player while actually trying to play fundamentally sound (?).

PRE - why you only raise to 25 over his 11 and two limpers? Are you suspecting shenanigans?

When someone posts and then raises, I try to assess if they're raising because they actually have a real hand, or if they might intuitively understand that their posting adds more dead money to the pot and they're incentivized to raise wider so no one behind them auto-raises.

If this kid is cognizant enough to put effort into cultivating a table image, I'd think he's capable of opening light when he posts.

FLOP - Yeah, c-bet 1/2 pot. Seems fine.

TURN - I think checking back is okay, if we're doing it to induce bluffs on the river, and intending to call most reasonable size bets. I'd also think it's okay to barrel here, to charge his draws, and because even if he has AT or AJ, we have plenty of outs. If we do bet, I might bet 1/2 pot again, to see if he wants to x/r.

I'm not too worried about him showing up with sets here. I'd be more concerned about 2P or KQ. If we think he's capable of x/r'ing as a bluff, I'd be more inclined to check back with our SDV, and not barrel, but much more inclined to call most rivers, even a larger bet size.

RIVER - Ignoring the physical tells, when we check back on the turn, we're inducing river bluffs. If V's betting for value, I'd think he'd go bigger. This feels like missed clubs, some SDV turned into a bluff, some air-ball with the Kc or Qc in it that might have been going for a x/r on the turn, something like that.

Paying some attention to the tells - when you say "splayed" into the pot, is that different than how he usually puts chips in, and if so, was it overly casual, or perhaps "aimed" in your direction? I'd read those as weakness, generally, but especially if he's usually pretty deliberate with how he puts his chips in.

When he bets and goes still, I'd read that as uncertainty. If he had a strong hand and felt confident in his assessment of your range, I'd expect him to go into "ready to show" mode - sitting up, hands on his cards, preparing to turn them over if we call or pass them to the dealer if we muck. Players with strong hands often display signs of impatience, especially in spots where they missed value on an earlier street.

If he's not confident about our range, I'd think he'd have taken longer before betting a strong hand. If his river bet on a card that brings in some straight draws was quick, I'd read this body language and timing tell as weak.

When you start assembling calling chips, if he was strong, he wouldn't want to do anything to discourage you from sticking the chips in. In fact, he might freeze, in the hopes of seeing you put together a raise. When he starts shuffling his cards, I'd view that as a sign he's not protecting them the way he would if they were valuable, and possibly resigned himself to his fate, expecting you to call his bluff.

I'd probably call just based on the action and sizings. The tells would mostly be noise I'd ignore, but if I wasn't sure, I'd read them all as weak, and it would push me more towards a call.

Also - you 3B small pre, and didn't go huge on a two-flush flop, then checked back on the turn. When you do all that, he's getting to the river with A LOT of hands that need to bluff.

Yeah this is what I suspect, bc his body language, like throwing himself into the seat and slumping hard, seemed like a deliberate "brat" act. Could also be some other attitude toward the game. I didn't detect any weed or alcohol smells.
The raise to $11 with all those white chips (splashed over the line) also seemed like performative clowning.

Looks like AJ/QJ almost always. AQ feels like a crying call at best, but fold is fine

But the OP, who is sitting at the table, read them as strong and thought he was beat. LOL. I don't mind a crying all, but I'm doing it because of the way the hand was played, not because I'm going to ignore everything OP wrote and re-imagine my V.

What are you talking about? I didn't re-imagine anything or ignore everything OP wrote. I actually responded to every bit of it directly.

I said I'd call based on the action.

I'd mostly ignore the tells as noise because I don't think physical tells as described are reliable enough to base our decisions on them. But if we're looking for tells to push us one way or the other in edge cases, I'd read V's body language as described as weak, not strong.

I could be wrong. OP could be right that V was performing, and he (OP) was beat.

The thing about physical tells is that it's difficult to convincingly fake them, and if we're going to attempt a fake tell, our opponents have to be paying attention and interpret the tells the way we intend, rather than backfire.

So, I tend to view most physical tells as authentic when not obviously fake. But I'm careful not to rely on them to such an extent that we over-ride our better judgment based on actual play, population tendencies, and any live player-specific reads, if only because interpreting physical tells is nuanced, as much art as science.

I tend to follow my gut.

As do I. I'm a big proponent of listening to our sub conscious. If OP folded because his gut told him too, I'd be fine with it.

However, I suspect that if it was his gut reaction to something his sub conscious was telling him, he'd be less likely to perfectly recall V's tells, because our conscious mind doesn't typically register and remember what it is our sub conscious is noticing. We can't always logically explain what our gut tells us to do because it's more intuitive, and rarely perfectly rational.

In theory, we should be mixing with AQ, the problem is that V shouldn't have a lot of FDs in solverland after calling a 3!. The FDs mostly have a J and now have enough SDV that shouldn't lead river. V has many 2p, straights, JJ. So in solverland the bluffs come from Tx. And that assumption leads to AQ calling 40% and folding 60%.

In the real world, I think V is calling the 3! a lot wider and probably has a lot more busted FDs than he should. Generally, when I xb SDV on the turn I plan to bluffcatch river. So my default would be to call, but if my instincts are telling me I'm no good, then I'm considering a jam. We block KQ and Q9, plus if V had KQ or Q9 with a club he probably x/r flop sometimes. And would a straight bet 75% pot? A small bet makes more sense if he thinks we're weak to get paid, and if he thinks we have strong hands still a x/r is better. So I think we can jam here and expect to win often enough.

Especially if our read is that V is tighter than he appears. He might not want to call off with 2p as frequently as an actual splashy player.

The more I talk, the more I want to jam.

i dont see how you can fold when you underrep your hand, the whole point of the turn check is so you can call this size river bet

i dont see how you can fold when you underrep your hand, the whole point of the turn check is so you can call this size river bet

I have to say that in 27 years here, give or take, this is the first OP I recall that granulars on the chip colors and it’s pretty ****ing tilting tbh.

And call on river ffs, or fold if that was your gut .

He has value way more often. Just fold river

Appreciated the replies. I had the calling chips ready and was just thinking "I've seen this movie before..." I folded after a long tank and villain showed an Ace, careful not to reveal the other card, saying "is an ace good?"
Later, as he was leaving, I asked what he had and he said he had "ace deuce. You folded a better kicker?" Not sure I believe it...I've heard this before when a player made a chunky value bet and I folded ("I had a sh*tty ace") like, they always have a bad ace, not even a middling one...

I would have 3bet larger pre. Given that Villain showed you an Ace, I think you made a good river fold regardless of what lie that he told you later on.

Hoping this isn't rubbing salt in the wound...

With no reveal, we don't know, but V's line is consistent with weakish SDV and bluffs.

Him showing the ace but being careful not to reveal his other card is interesting. When I've done that, it was to avoid revealing I was OOL, or as a way to enhance my image ("see, I had it"), or as a way to needle / tilt someone ("here's one, guess the other").

If he didn't say anything, I'd be inclined to think he had the best hand and was showing you made a good fold, out of respect. When he asks if the ace is good, that seems like he's just trying to get info from you, and he sincerely wasn't sure if you folded a better hand.

His river bet isn't THAT chunky, if he figures to have the best hand. You could be checking back the turn with KK, QQ, JX, or TX that he can target for value when the FDFD bricks. The 8d on the river doesn't change much, if anything, when you're the pre-flop 3B'er. It's not like you're going to have a lot of 88 or Q9 in range.

It's a 3BP, and we checked back the turn on an ace-high, two-flush, three-Broadway board, after c-betting 1/2 pot on the flop. Our line doesn't broadcast strength, and is going to induce bluffs and thin value bets from a lot of opponents.

When we check back the turn with SDV, we have to call more when opponents bet less than pot on the river. This one was close, because he did bet just under 70%, which is sort of chunky, but I wouldn't assume he had thick value with that sizing.