3b pot: bluffcatch with the A9 of PIGS

They have tons of winning hands which easily find this line. AQ, KQ, all the sets, 65... Hard for them to overbluff. Also when bluffing they will often use the small size on the turn (wrongly I believe). Maybe in theory your hand is indifferent but I believe in practice you should fold. Vs some players dumping it on the turn might be correct, not a lot of river cards you really like.

I feel bad giving such a boring advice for such a beautiful HH.

Mhhh, they don't have 44 and 22 that often. Again, in theory, because some players can't resist flatting any pocket pair vs 3bet.

I think we extract extra set combos away for not raising flop, but yeh it's mostly Qx we fear.

Spot is generally overbluffed according to mda though I don't have stats on pool nor texture. So we probably have to have SOME bluffcatchers and I think this would perform well: blocking TPTK, sets, straights and unblocking FDs, mid PPs they could bluff like 55/66/77/88.

We only need to be good 1/3 so I'm still torn, although vs certain tighter player types this can lean suicidal quick agreed.

Not at all. Sometimes boring is gospel.

So some considerations:

1. how often does ip have 22/44 from preflop (call) node and flop (call) node

do you think they fold these pre at any frequency and do you think they raise them on flop at any frequency

2. how often does ip float flop with some potential bluff combinations (KJs/KTs/JTs/XXss)

3. For (2.) when ip does have potential bluff combos how likely do you think they use this sizing ott and do you think they follow through on the river?

You have a pure bluff catcher, but blocking 99, A5s and AQ is relevant. This type of hand is likely mixed in theory, so you have to estimate how often your opponent is bluffing and how often they have value.

Value: 22, 44, 99, AQo/s, KQs, A5s, 65s

If he has all combos of the value at 100% frequency, then this is 3+3+1+9+3+3+4 value combos... ~26 combos at ~worst case scenario

pot odds on river 71.2/(71.2+71.2+88.8) = ~31%

For worst case scenario you need him to have X number of bluff combos:

x/(x+26) = 0.31

around 13 combos of bluffs. Bluffing all combos of KJs, KTs, JTs brings you to 12 for natural bluff combos. He'd have to have and barrel off some combos of AXss and/or some other bluffs to reach that frequency. Of course this is the worst case scenario for value and best case scenario for bluffs. If you reduce 22/44/65s/A5s then it becomes much closer.

All in all, a close spot in theory so it's sort of just a function of how aggressive you think your opponent is. If you think he ever turns a pair into a bluff or floats and bluffs wide then you can call.

Thanks. It's tricky. I have it from a couple of sources that this is one of the classic overbluffed fish lines, and this has generally played out at micros ime. But I had no read here, and agree the board is working against us as far as bluff combos go and it already being a potentially overfolded texture.

This guy had KQo. Which first made me think it's a bit fishy to call that pre (and thus line was good), but I'm using rake adj ranges off gtow, so not that wild to call pre at all. And thus calling more problematic.

KQo is likely a mix call/4b.. Rake needs to be pretty high to start folding it or sizing even bigger than this. I didn't include it in value as a mistake... add that back into the mix and things become worse for you. Looks more like a clear fold to me.

On the flop backdoor pigs is nice but we block some of the weaker portion of range with 9 and we can call a bet facing aggression from V so I like checking flop to pot control. And with the A it's not like he flats AA here so we don't really block the strongest hands in his range except AQ. I would fold river facing such a strong line