T5o is put to the test

I dont think i can, in bvb configuration. Although the 4 straight board is definitely scary, i think we win or chop often enough to make it a call vs

Wait, no, i can - pre! What are we even doing here with that garbage?

If you can hit > 50/bb long term loss with SB trash then you may as well open it basically. It's a fun art that can go sideways fast, but serves as a fun hand/spot generator nonetheless.

Which is why it probably is a call tbf. I'm just not sure if this is an 'always have it' spot or not, given bet sizes

Looks like its already going sideways, unless villain is some massive nit imo.

Yeah when villain calls an overbet and then raises another overbet IP, he has something at least. The question is, could it be something less than a straight or not. The more i think about it, the more i lean towards folding actually.

What are you doing pre? Really no need to open this trash.
River size seems too big, he has a lot of Tx and you want calls from weaker hands like 2p or some hero calls.

Dunno. Logic there was wide range situation = silliness. Turn OB calling range seems laden with overcalling to me but i take the point and will think on it.

Pre is A THING, aner0 told me once. I don't think it's a secret? I think it's bulletproof. Every orbit SB loses 0.5 if it folds, which ultimately = minus 50/100bb. Trivial to check in tracker for those isolated hands. If you can beat folding then it doesn't matter if you're losing minus 45/100bb or even -49.98/100, you're always improving your winrate, correct?

If i'm wrong by all means explain but bear in mind aner0 made so much of this one single exploit he gave up poker and retired to a palace in Bora Bora

Fold is 0 isnt it? 0.5 isnt your money anymore. If you win with garbage, i think it would be +ev to play, not -49/100. Am i missing the point here?

This is why this spot is extra difficult. We have too much value. I'm looking for ways to duck coolers, and i think overfolding some nutted combos in some silly/face up lines makes sense.

Call needs IP to be misplaying value enough, just for chop. They almost never have worse and what % are bluffs is up for debate. Idk. I honestly see both sides, the trouble is both sides are different leaks.

It's technically counted as a loss. That's why everyone's blind WRs are wrecked

Im shooting myself in the foot every day, but then it bleeds. If i bandage it myself i could bleed out and die, but going to the doctor is expensive. Tough decision isnt it?

I dont really intend to get on your case and play preflop police here, just found it a bit funny

Third option: sell kidney on the international kidney market. Now you can at least afford a beautiful maid type co-worker to help with the off table constantly bleeding syndrome

IIf they're overbluffing they're massively overbluffing but if they aint they could be fish nits laughing us to brokesville. I need to find some folds I'm telling yo

I fairly certain aner0 would call and also call me an idiot

Yes, if raising is better than folding you should raise, but this is -ev raise in gto it loses 71bb/100, so you need very soldi reads to start opening this. Even in that case i wouldn't do it, even weak reg can tell when you start open raising 80% and will adjust.

No doubt. You're only supposed to barely break even though. If they aren't 3betting enough they are totally capped (or is the other way?) If they overfold to flop b33 we have implieds where we never should. Some fish will never bet at all and let you realise 3 street equity. Or show down your third pair. Even if they only overfold and underraise pre that's probably still much better than -71bb or whatever.

Also not sure if using base gto metrics to measure against it is all that useful in this case, as it will rebuild entirely around a vastly superior villain strategy that will almost never exist. If they know we're FOS then we'll find out soon enough and that's all irrelevant because we adapt.

I wouldn't do this vs a reg or any kind of decent 3bettor. But very few meet that description ime until 25nl and then it's probably not the mean. Some will adapt but vast majority won't/aren't/can't ime

EDIT: and even if they do we can have more 4bet bluffs than we should. If the game reaches that level you're starting to reg battle

Im all for population exploits/villain-based exploits, but "they might make a mistake in the future" just sounds like disneyland. I dont doubt that you have an edge on an average 10nl player, but you are just putting yourself in tought spots for no reason (other than you like pain i guess)

Well it's basically free EV (until it aint, but that's most spots rly). The main value is stealing and not going too lam post i would think. There are many ATC spots in this tree, it shouldn't hurt to get out of depth occasionally

I mean, folding where you can make more EV playing otherwise is basically a leak. Or at least that should be the mindset of a crusher imo

If all of your assumptions are correct your hand is areound breakeven open and makes your strategy super transparent. If not you are just burning ev.

You can capture 99% of the ev by opening slightly wider, like T8o and T7o are enough.

I can open those too. That's the beauty of it: it's extra.

https://ibb.co/ycbqPQYT

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Screenshot-352 hosted at ImgBB

Can you beat my T5o SB open graph? I'll wait..

I will accept she took a fair while to yield her treasure. But yield she did

Whoops ruined the mystery of the hand now. Pretend i folded

Made me double check

https://ibb.co/PZM0NgLC

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Screenshot-354 hosted at ImgBB

-44.23. So like +5bb/100 for all supposedly 'zero' EV hands. i can't see how it isn't > folding. It's also very easy to implement

(apart from this hand)

2k hands ins not enough to look at WR.

But lets say all those hands make 5bb/100. That doesn't mean all of the hands are necessary proftiable. Majority of ev comes from strongest hands and rest of them are around breakeven and I would argue the very bottom of the range is losing.

bro.. this is such a spot where you just hate life. you’ve got the dumb end of it and the guy’s screaming strength. nobody’s jamming worse for value, right? i prob fold and tell myself i made a disciplined laydown even though i’ll think about it for hours.

24k. Out of 245k total

You're several leagues ahead of me on theory Haizem so I don't say this lightly, but those sentences don't make logical sense. Besides the fact the majority of those -EV hands are individually profiting from steals alone, if the collective > -50bb/100 then by definition that is a superior strategy.

I doubt folding is ever particularly 'wrong' as a general strategy for most river raises. But it is easy to become exploitable if we can't switch to a solid BC defence when things are marginal.