NL5z - Turned Toppair vs River Overbet

NL5z - Turned Toppair vs River Overbet

GG Poker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 34.2 BB
SB: 85 BB
BB: 173.8 BB
UTG: 132.6 BB
MP: 114.2 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K J

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.4 BB, 2 players) Q 7 T
BB checks, Hero bets 1.4 BB, BB raises to 8.6 BB, Hero calls 7.2 BB

Turn: (21.6 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (21.6 BB, 2 players) 2
BB bets 41 BB, Hero ?

(1) Should I have floated on the turn (for example with B30)? Why it's good/bad? I was a bit scared of a potential check-raise.

(2) Call or fold on the river? J is a nice blocker to straights. I've underrepped my hand and my range is perceived as weak/capped. Thing is 2x pot seems under-bluffed in general and villain needs to be creative with bluffs from 98 and some 7x plus random airballs.

04 November 2025 at 01:46 PM
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12 Replies



I don't think this is a great flop to cbet small on, it's too dynamic and I don't think we have a range advantage.
We can cbet large like 55-70% pot or even overbet here I think. I like both checking to realize our equity and overbetting to build a large pot in case we hit the nuts.

Betting small here on the flop seems bad, and you can see why, you got raised. Not even sure if we can call the raise.

The K improves our hand, why are we checking behind? I'm definitely going with another bet here like 50-70% pot.

As played I think we can fold to the river bet, these bets are almost never bluffs in my experience.

What do you mean float turn? Floating means you call a bet IP on the flop or turn to see what your opponent does on the next street, there's no bet.


Solver backing me up, loves the 125% overbet on the flop here with KJo.
Also our range vs range equity is only 49% vs 51%, so no range advantage - but this could change dramatically depending on what hands you open and what hands BB chooses to defend with. These are just my default ranges.


We do check behind on the turn if we overbet flop:



I dont agree. Hero has a clear range advantage on that flop after open raising 2x your ranges seem to be off.
Even if opening 3x we still have big ev advantage. As the preflop raiser we do in general very well when there are 2 high cards.
That beeing said yes solver likes to bet big and mix and it has the highest ev but i still recommend to simplifie to a range bet on this type of boards the ev loss will be around 0.8% if villain plays perfect wich is totaly fine for lowstakes.
You can try to node lock the range that you would cb and check and see how your strategy performs compared to gto. Most players assume they can mix like the solver but the reality is often that they loose more ev then the range bet.
To play the mixed strategy on a high level you need to put alot of study in first of all you need to know how to mix on the flop but then you also open up way more future lines.
Just stick to range bet or range check and implement the mix slowly on boards where we loose to much ev like on Txx and lower.
As played vs xr clear call it is not even close.
Vs check on the turn normaly we can stab more frequent and thinner for value because population is not protecting there checking ranges and when they check raise then it is to strong. Your hand realy sucks to get check raised because we have alot of eq and because villains xr range is to strong when he check raises we will need to already fold which is terrible. A hand like AK does not mind folding or K9 etc.
So check back turn i like and river close with your blocker and villain having potentialy 16 combos of 98 this is a very natural xr on the flop and also on that turn a very natural give up.
So i can imagine him getting to the river with that hand pretty often and also betting that size.
Hands that he reps for value like AJ or J9 are intuitve bets on the turn and you block it so mostly he gets to the river with QT (9 combos), KQ(1-2 combos), 77 (1-2 combos) and lets say 4-6 combos straights.
So yea pretty close he would need to have around 10 combos bluffs which i think he has with 98 and 86 as very natural hands in this line but i dont mind the fold if unsure.


I would x turn, fold river against anyone bar the obvious spew meisters


I like your turn check honestly. most of the value in betting there is protection, and you already pick up equity + showdown. the river though… man, 2x pot at nl5 is never a bluff in my experience. I just fold and sleep fine


by giova9990x

Just stick to range bet or range check and implement the mix slowly on boards where we loose to much ev like on Txx and lower.

Let me make sure i understand what youre saying - just pick boards on which you will range check, and which you will range bet, and thats it? Some flops are 100% check, some are 100% bet (i assume for a singular sizing), no inbetween? I would think that it would lose a lot of ev even compared to a relative beginner doing what makes sense. Very interesting, i will maybe run some sims on that.

Regarding the hand, i think we do have range advantage (Yeodan's opening range seems a bit wide for co, and too strong of a range for a bb call - QQ, JJ, AKs, AQo are all mostly in there for example), but it doesnt seem big enough for a range bet (ran a simplified sim with and without nodelocks - rangebetting small costs us about 6.5% ev range vs range, which might or might not be a big deal for you). I personally would bet for a bigger size and lower frequency. Calling a raise is a no brainer.

Like the turn x. On the river i think im leaning slightly towards call, but fold is ok too - villain dependent.


by bigfishinsmallpond

Let me make sure i understand what youre saying - just pick boards on which you will range check, and which you will range bet, and thats it Some flops are 100% check, some are 100% bet (i assume for a singular sizing), no inbetween I would think that it would lose a lot of ev even compared to a relative beginner doing what makes sense. Very interesting, i will maybe run some s

Only decision is Range bet small so 25-33% or range check. This works well on most textures only on Txx and lower it gets bigger the ev loss and population is doing not that big mistakes vs a range bet there so there we want to learn the mixed strategy first but until this is not studyed correctly you are better of even cbetting range there.
6.5% ev loss cant be i think you did something wrong in your sim please share your tree that you used thank you


ah i know already you let the solver range bet 3/4 or bigger of curse this is a huge mistake so i mean range bet small 25-33% max try this out


by giova9990x

ah i know already you let the solver range bet 3/4 or bigger of curse this is a huge mistake so i mean range bet small 25-33% max try this out

btn vs bb, 2.5 open with my simplified ranges (more interesting to me than whatever is going on with opening 2x from co which i dont implement in my game).
tree:


ranges:


IP has overall EV of 2.796

Everything else is the same, but i locked x>b33 on the flop:


IP has EV of 2.611

Maybe im misunderstanding something, as im pretty new to solver work. Will appreciate pointers


Underrepped, sure. But 2x pot in NL5 = value city. Fold and print.


by bigfishinsmallpond

btn vs bb, 2.5 open with my simplified ranges (more interesting to me than whatever is going on with opening 2x from co which i dont implement in my game).tree:ranges:IP has overall EV of 2.796Everything else is the same, but i locked x>b33 on the flop:IP has EV of 2.611Maybe im misunderstanding something, as im pretty new to solver work. Will appreciate pointers

I mean % of the potsize so the
ev difference / by the potsize in your example
0.185 / 5.5 x 100 = 3,336 %
But this is still pretty far away from the 1.8% wich i get in my sim.
So something needs to be different in the tree but cant identitfy what because i am not familiar with gto+ i am sorry.


here you see the ranges that i used maybe you find some differences there

I see, i was calculating it as a percentage of IP's EV, so 0.185/2.796 ~6.617%

I have a wider range for IP (used my simplified button RFI range) and more condensed/capped range for oop. Maybe thats why - my equity rvr is 49-51 oop-ip, yours is 46.2-53.8. Your IP range also has more EV than mine even before i node locked.

I will definitely be looking into simplifying to range bet or check. Cant believe its not a massive loss to do so until i see it with my own eyes.

Fun stuff that i learned - when we range bet (and our opponent adapts), both our and opponent's nutted hands like sets overperform, but most everything else underperforms EV-wise.

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