Bingo poker splash pot hand 4 8, bad on every street?
8 handed $100 splash pot. I am UTG getting 25-1 and yell "bingo poker" and call blind. 7 other calls.
Flop comes QJ7r. SB bad 3/6 player bets out, call, I look now and see Q2o and raise(?). What do I think he is betting with?
One or two folds, MP old white guy who overthinks against me tanks and calls, another call or 2 and the original bettor calls.
Turn is a 2 ...SB bets out again, fold, I raise again, hoping he doesn't have QJ or Q7 , MP tank folds(he told me later he had KQ) more folds, old white guy LP chaser calls, SB calls. I don't recall if there was a FD possible or not here.
River is a 5 no flushes possible. SB now checks, I check(?), LP checks.
7 Replies
Seems fine. I’d probably bet the river.
Raise dark pre, bet river
Bet river. There might be river cards you can check (Jx, 7x, maybe Ax/Kx/Tx), but this is not one of them.
I am going to give a contrarian opinion here. I would look at my cards and fold preflop. My reasons are (1) it's a garbage hand, (2) it has very poor playability postflop, (3) I don't know if there are going to be any raises behind me, so I don't know for certain that I'm getting 25-1 to see the flop, and (4) I will be out of position on every street postflop, which will make it much more difficult to assess where I'm at relative to my opponents.
If I were on the button or in the cutoff and everyone ahead of me just limped, I would probably limp with this hand from those positions. But the positional disadvantage elsewhere makes this hand unplayable in my view.
Yes, I know what a splash pot is. I played one last night.
People use the term Bingo poker all the time, but the analogy doesn't hold. In Bingo, every card has an equal chance of winning. That's not the case here. Your preflop equity is not 12.5%; it's probably closer to half that. And there are many situations where you won't be able to realize your preflop equity—for example, when the runout is 497QQ or AK534. I would estimate your realizable equity at ~5%.
Moreover in Bingo the price of playing is fixed in advance. You pay $4/card (or whatever) to play the game to its conclusion. In limit poker there are 4 betting rounds, with a potential for a bet and 3 raises each round, and the bet size doubles in the final 2 rounds. So if you hit a piece of the flop, you could easily pay $16 or more to get to the river and $24 or more to get to showdown.
If I counted correctly, you paid $28 to play this hand.
Let's say you win one time out of 20 when you play this hand. You get $100 plus another $120 or so from the pot, for +$220. But let's say the other 19 times you lose an average of $12, for –$228. So you're losing a little money by playing this hand. Shift that average loss to $16, and calling with this hand preflop is clearly EV-negative.
Raising on the flop seems overly ambitious. The bettor likely has top pair or better, in which case he has you outkicked or dominated in some other way (two pair or a set). Raising on the turn seems fine, though I suspect you were beat anyway, which is why you're posting.
Checking the river with the intent to call any bet(s) seems fine to me.
My hand beat the J7o and J2o. BINGO
