AQo x/r and bomb vs thinking fish

Not thrilled with the shove only because he sees you as LAGGY so will/should call w/ everything ahead of your A high, but if he really is scared money, I'm more thrilled with it and think it's a good shove 😉

Both our cards generate fold equity and I’d cbet given the bdnfd. As played of course jam turn.

Preflop, IMO x/r is the worst option, because this is a wet board, and you didn't hit it hard. The x/r isn't going to get many folds.

Turn is a jam with the nut combo draw.

turn shove looks good to me

id cr flop smaller to keep in weak hands that will fold to a big turn bet.

I meant on the flop, I don't like checkraising with not that much on a wet board.

Turn, you have no choice. You are even with pot odds against top pair. You are OOP and it is kind of a disaster whatever villain does after you check.

What was interesting to me is that poker tracker lists AJ as a 70% favorite on this turn even with all the draws, yet there’s a good chance villain folds that hand facing a shove.

Every other top pair hand is still a favorite on this board despite the kicker, but they are more likely to fold. Also noticed that facing 2pair only increases V’s chance to win by 5% up to 75% , but he’s probably not folding now.

Take away: I like your play here. You put a lot of pressure on villain that a loose passive can’t handle. At the same time, I think I learned that I should be reluctant to fold top pair against a player like you. Even 2nd pair bad kicker is a 60% favorite against your massive draw on the turn.

V is on BTN straddle and flats preflop. He probably has no premium hands in this situation. We have all the NF. He can have a small flush draw. I think he probably jams his JTo on our flop xr.

We have compressed his range substantially with the flop xr. What can he call our xr with on flop that we beat on turn?

For that reason, he is ahead of us on many turns and the 7c isn't a bad card for him. Yes we have more NF. But he has lots of small flushes, 9c8c, 33 and maybe KcQc too. I cannot rule out TT either.

I don't like the jam here bc I don't see that he gets to the turn with much that he will fold getting ~2-1. I prefer to x and hope to bink river. If he jams, we get 2-1 on our redraw call which isn't terrible if we think K is live too.

Villain is getting 2-1, but not that easy to call 360 to stack off. Better to shove than x/c. Villain does have flushes etc. that are not folding.

would b30 ott and jam most rivers

I guess after betting ~$90 on the turn you auto call shoves when you only need 25%?

I feel like when I take lines like this bad 1-2 V's with the occasional move feel empowered to shove Tx9c as a bluff too much, but mostly sigh fold if I shove.

It does look like a better line vs. better players though.

I think shoving fourth street is obvious given the action that came before then, but I'm curious what you would have done if the turn was 2♦.

He’s scared to put money in without a big hand? Does 8BB preflop and another 38 on the flop count as “money”?

He called a big xr on the flop. I guess he folds Jx without K/Qc here but not QQ.

Yeah, he’s put in too much money to fold now.

He’s straightforward/passive. If we give him KQ/KT/T9/98cc or top two/bottom set, would you say he’s played straightforwardly and passively so far?

He sees you as laggy. Do laggy players sometimes overplay missed flops oop? Do they sometimes shove on scary turn cards that give them nut combo draws but no pairs?

3-way oop, with just two overs and a bdfd, I favor folding on the flop. "Scared to put money in without a big hand." Is a big hand not only 33 and JJ but also AJ, KJ, and JT? I still don't understand why hero should raise the flop. Can anybody explain the reasoning? Banana?

Two overs, bdfd *AND* a gutshot.

Folding flop seems egregious vs 0.5p.

Yeah, I don't like the flop raise. Not sure if it is x/f. Maybe you can cbet or x/c that bet. Don't think the x/r gets many folds on this flop. If you don't get a good turn card like this, what do you do on the turn?

How did we not hit this hard? Why can’t we have all the overpairs, sets and JTs?

On the flop, hero has a gutshot, bdfd, and overcards.

Cbet > xf > xr. If V is scared money, and you have draws to the nuts, why not c-bet the flop instead of check raising? You’re getting good implied odds with a c-bet. You just aren’t getting enough fold equity with the check raise, he’s only calling you with a range that has you crushed. With the check raise, you now have only bullet. What card are you hoping for on the turn? An A on the turn is not a clean out, a brick in the turn is also bad. You have only 12 clean outs against TT, JT, and JJ. I don’t think he calls a check raise with worse.

AP shove the turn.

adonson, you should do an experiment and see how often people stab flops that dont have a K, Q, or ace in them when checked to HU. i guarantee its more than 50%. and of that > 50%, how much of hte range can stand a flop CR + big turn barrel?

This is a 3-way, not a HU flop. There is no A or K, but it is a wet flop.

Good idea to pressure, but that shove’s high risk for little fold equity. I’d barrel smaller or give up.