5-10--call turn shove?

Can you clarify turn action?

If he checked we have a nice candidate to check back given our weak kicker and straight draw. Vs jam I probably sigh fold.

V checked turn. I bet 140

bet smaller ott

Agreed. $100 is better than $140.

I'd put my line somewhere around 3x pot to start folding some 10x, but T8 is a particularly good T to have for bluff catching - I'd rather call with T9 or T8 than JT. X/r to 2x pot is something I'd expect reasonable aggressive players to do with bluffs frequently enough that we should bluffcatch.

I think when you start to get close to 3x, V simply has too many reasonable alternatives and few will have any bluffs I might call with T8 sometimes but would fold some Tx. If it's 4x+, I'd have to have history or a special read to consider calling without a boat or better.

Thanks. This was close to a 2x pot shove. My gut in the moment was that the inflection point was somewhere in the range of 2x to 3x. After looking at it a bit more, I think that's correct. Whether it falls closer to 2x or 3x obviously depends on exactly how wide a range I give Villain.

I don't think you should overlook the fact that you guys are only 100bbs deep, even though it doesn't matter in theory. In reality, people are a lot less like to spew off larger absolute amounts.

The double CR is kind of a crazy line and my guess is that its value heavy. But you are usually going to have a lot of outs if beat by, for example a straight, which makes a lot of sense. CR bluff. Got there, CR again. I would probably just call since you really crush his bluffs and have decent outs against his made hands and as the BB, it wouldn't be utterly shocking if he had T4 suited or something.

i dont see much reason to bet the turn at all.

fish check dark to setmine

Seems like a snap fold

It does matter, but only because it makes the required equity % higher or lower. Bigger stacks, we need >X% to call; shorter stacks,

We need something like 36% here. 720 / (860 shove + 140 turn + 285 pot + 720).

T8s on TT76r obv isn't the nuts, but you don't have to taffy-pull Vs range too ridiculously to hit 36% for H. Though call, x-r, x-shove is obviously imposing...

So I was lolfold at first, but after looking at it, though it's a crying call, I call here. Make the shove such that H's required equity starts going into >40, and I'm less eager. Betting less on turn would make folding a touch easier too.

I was wondering how to interpret that. Though I've seen them do it to make their subsequent aggro moves with trash more...jarring? Hard to get in their head.

I don't know the answer to the EV neutral question, but I snap call this jam. This is almost always going to be an over-pair that he decided not to 3B pre. My guess would be JJ or QQ.

That's interesting because I'd guess the line is bluff-heavy. Value being played this way doesn't make sense to me.

Suppose V turned the straight, why allow H the opportunity to check back with a hand like AA/KK? H has ample overpairs and only a few Tx. If V has the straight, he's blocking the draws and most draws are a chop if they hit anyway. Stacks are shallow enough that bet $200, and pot sized jam river is pretty gross for H to fold JJ-AA to and certainly all Tx are calling that line. So with value, b/b is very viable. And then after checking, the jam is sizable, it's folding out a good portion of H's value. Calling JJ-AA here would be very hard. I think the average $5/$10 player would recognize that and if going for the double x/r just click it to $300. If H is going to fold, make it feel really gross.

With a bluff, like A9, K9, Q9 - it makes a lot of sense to me because those hands block hero from AT/KT/QT and block the SD, which leaves a lot of overpairs in H's range and its very reasonable to believe that an overpair isn't calling this line too often.

Maybe I'm giving V too much credit, but if he has value, this is horribly played by him, and I would promptly reward that horrible play by paying it off because that's how I buy my karma - I reward bad players so they stay bad for all of you who do this for a living. You're welcome 😀.

Bolded is correct. I could defend a range for Villain that gives me anything from a 30% to 45% of winning when we don't chop. Anything far outside of that range is just wishful thinking or seeing monsters imo.

So I don't claim to know these stakes, but does V really have that many worse combos OTF? Is he defending the BB with many worse Tx, any overpairs, or x/r things like gutter+bdfd that the solver uses? Or are we trying to read more into the rather weird choice to x/r the turn again?

Idk, I think it's more like they have sort of figured out that checking range OOP is often a sensible play and they really want to make sure everyone knows "this is a range check, not an unprotected weak check like I normally do".

I don't have to assume that Villain is defending with any worse Tx combos in order for this to be a call. I do have to assume that he was some overpairs, at least JJ and QQ, and pairs with back door straight draws like 88 and 99. I also think that Villain could be checkraising quite wide on the flop here. T8 obviously is toward the upper end of my possible range here, and it would be entirely possible for me to have a big A that would be uncomfortable calling a c/r.

In the real world, people call very often in the BB in spots where 2+2 posters believe that folding or 3-betting is significantly better than calling.

Yeah, the three categories I listed were all things I felt were unlikely at least by populations I am used to (which is not 5/10), so I was curious which of them you thought likely here - you have to assume that some of them are happening.

If he is flatting JJ/QQ at high frequency (which is a deviation from equilibrium that surprises me) and finding low-equity bluffs then it definitely makes sense. The solver prefers bluffing with combos like J9s/J8s/86s and some like Q9s all with bdfd which I think make better choices than 99/88 but if he's capable of finding anything other than the obvious 98 which gets there on the turn, it definitely widens your calling range.

At lower stakes, Villains who can check-raise draws at all are rare enough, so it's pretty unusual that someone bluffs x/r enough on a drier board. Don't know how that translates to midstakes players, although it seems a little weird you'd have a V who won't 3b QQ but can x/r bluff a very low-equity draw.

I probably fold here. At 200bb deep that shove just feels too value-heavy.

100 bb deep

Is there any hand you would play exactly the way V played this hand on all streets? Probably not.

I wouldn't make too much out of his dark check. Lots of older players do that. It's like they're saying, "I have no donk range. My entire range is going to be check-call, check-fold, or check-raise, so think about it before you c-bet, because a raise could be coming."

If our read is that he's looser pre than the rest of the table, and he's flatting our CO raise from the BB, he could have a super-wide range here. But it's hard to credit him with super-nutted hands in this line, on this board.

He could have 77, but that's just 3 combos. Maybe he's got better TX, but again - we know where 3 of the T's are. Doubtful he's check-raising 98 and then going for a double-check-raise-jam on the turn. He's repping pretty thin.

Maybe he's playing super-face up, but I wouldn't be shocked if this turns out to be JJ-AA that didn't 3B pre. If action folded to you in the CO, and then after you raise it folds to him in the BB, I've seen "thinking" players take this line with big pocket pairs.

The logic is something like, "He could be raising really wide in the CO, and if I 3B him from the BB, it looks super-strong, and he's going to fold a lot, and I won't get value for my hand, so I'll just call to trap, and then start piling it in on the flop."

If we're going to raise hands like T8s pre, I don't think we can ever fold here, in this line, vs a V as described, without knowing a lot more, enough to be sure he's never doing this with a big PP.

Actually, I wish to amend my earlier post. I actually did play AA this way one time.

Loose-passive MP limps. Aggro kid on BTN opens for a raise. Everyone had been over-folding to my 3B's, so I decided to flat with AA in the BB.

Flop came K44rb. Action checks to the PFR, who c-bets. I x/r. They both snap fold, and I swore I'd never play a big PP that way again, because it was so stupid.

No idea what I'd have done if he 3B me. Not even sure what I'd have done if he called. Probably not going for a double-check-raise, but K44 is a lot more static than TT7. If he had KK, or if the MP player had 4x, I'd have been cooked.