[1/2 Live] KK facing double donk on JTT — fold turn?

What kind of player is he preflop? Have you seen him raise often or he just likes to cold call more often. This is important since if he is more passive pre, i would be more incline to fold the turn because he could have alot of AT. But if he opens as well then i would eliminate AT of his range and wil be happy to call the turn and maybe the river. It all boils down to this if he is passive or aggro.

Might fold unless I know villain is hyper aggro.

Hate when I raise 5x with a monster pre and the whole table calls. You can just go $50 here, you're still getting at least one call. Don't worry if you wouldn't do that with KQs, the fish won't notice.

The flop is a must call, but even fish usually recognize that donking into three players requires a made hand. Maybe he is doing this with AJ/KJ/QJ sometimes.

The turn, my baseline is that if a fish donks the flop and then donks a larger size on the turn, it's almost always a monster and we should be overfolding. If he is whaling about that hard, it will be obvious fairly quickly and we can adjust after we make that observation. The nice thing about whales is that they don't stop being whales until they are broke, and they will provide an above average number of opportunities to get our money in ahead. So no reason to hurry before we have a positive ID.

So:

1: Yes.
2: No
3: No, there is no value is raising this flop. We don't want to scare away Jx that will likely either donk small or check turn. If the turn donk was another $50, calling all day long and looking to call/value bet river we are playing Jx maybe QQ. That V donked a lot larger is the evidence that he almost always has 10x, JT, or JJ.
4: OTF, Jx, Tx maybe KQ/J9/98 as bluffs, but definitely heavier on value. OTT, with this size, 95%+ this is Tx or better.

would see the river

Grunch:

Yuck.

PRE - think we can raise a little larger when there's a limp in front of us.

FLOP - this donk into multiple opponents would usually be strong. I wouldn't raise, at least not very often.

TURN - tough decision. I think we should probably fold, but I wouldn't hate on a flat call.

My thinking is that this could be trips or Jx, and Jx is likely going to shut it down and check to us on the river if we call again. Even Tx will sometimes slow down and check, because we can have JJ or JT. If we call and he bets again, I'd hate it, but I at that point I think we have to fold.

H calls, pot'll be 520 with 270 back. --> I don't think we can fold river if we call turn. I don't really want to call down, bit OTOH, it's only 80 or so straddles so shrug?

Is this V bad enough to think Jx is really, really good here? Lots are, and most of those will do goofy stuff like donk for 40% with a J on JTTr. Then think, "Villain would've raised if they had a T, so let's keep betting!" Which would explain the big sizing on turn. Damn it, I'm talking myself into a call.

If we call, and V checks river, is H checking back, or sticking the last half-pot bet in?

Honestly, I don't know, about any of it.

I think there's a tendency we all have to think that we "can't" fold after putting in 1/3-1/2 our starting stack, but I think a case can be made. Like, if the river is another J, or another T, or another heart, or brings in an OESD, and V bets again, we might make a super-exploitable fold. Like, he's not doing this with QQ or some random AX, is he?

Even if the river is just a brick - V donk-bet into three opponents, got called, and barreled. How often is he barreling off with just JX or a busted draw?

But, as you said, we're not starting out that deep with the straddle on, and V could be bluffing or betting worse for value, maybe, sometimes.

If we do call turn, and V checks river, I think I'd bet, if only because OP's read is that V is a fish, and I don't think a fish is going to come out and donk into three people with trips, barrel the turn, and then decide to slow down and trap by checking a brick river after we've called twice, simply because fish always seem to worry we'll check back when they have thick value.

If V does find a check with JX, we can still get value. Occasionally he shows up with some PP that didn't want to 3B pre but then gets turned into a spewy bluff on the flop for some reason, like 99 or 88, and makes a pot-odds call.

I'm not convinced anyone has the franchise on responding correctly to donks. The multi-way donk is supposedly going to be stronger than the heads-up donk, but I routinely see low-stakes recs donking BS hands multi-way, and donking strong hands heads-up, so it wouldn't shock me to learn V is over-playing JX or taking us to value-town with TX, or even just doing some bizzaro $hlt with borderline air.

Projecting ourselves into the future, I'm somewhat expecting a reveal of some hand we're not thinking about but which somehow makes sense in hindsight, some combo that was an OESD on the flop that picked up the BDFD.

Hard to lay down KK here, in a low-stakes game, especially when the flop donk was less than 1/2 pot and our read is that V is a loose rec.

When it gets to you and there's ~15 in the pot, you can/should raise more than 2x pot. Like if you are normally opening to 12 that's 4x pot, and you can be wider.

In general the main reason I'd think about calling the flop is because it's not that big (50 into 120).

Can't be that bad to fold flop vs. population, without reads. Seen random 1-2 people donk Tx or better roughly 666x more often than I've seen people donk AJ here.

Q9/98 are much more likely to x/c, esp. on a rainbow flop. Maybe Jx/99/88 donk flop sometimes, targeting AK for value. Maybe KQ donks to get AK/AQ to fold? Kind of advanced thoughts for that though.

Turn is now a big bet (not a donk) in relative and absolute terms ... would need decent reads to think about calling at 1-2.

Sometimes V might have QQ, I guess. But even AJ seems unlikely.

There's one combo. of KQcc that might be doing insane things for insane reasons.

Not sure wtf sub's plan is on most rivers where we have 300ish left and the pot will be ~520. online is science, gg.

idk figure it out when it happens

folding flop really would be exceptionally bad if the only provided read is loose rec that straddled

Folding flop is silly.

Turn is a lot different, given what we believe are the characteristics of our population: passive, sticky, not eager to bet big w/o connecting with the board. Again, my question is: are our Vs donking then betting big when we don't raise flop? Maybe?

Concur, but (and you can do the EV math like me) we have to be sure. On the 'Hey, Stupid!' runouts, yep, dump it.

Yeppers. But, the size is small, so ehhhh.

TBH, I think we're toast, but hey, a call is good for the game.

We're thinking alike, I think. I do wonder how often a bad rec continues to bet worse for value when we don't raise flop. We might level ourselves into making a bad fold because they're assuming something about our play that isn't true and we don't consider, like "if he had better than AJ he'd raise my donk so I must be ahead".

Setting aside the stupid obvious run-outs where we know we're toast and can fold, even getting a bazillion to one, there are many more of these "this is either genius or idiotic" situations that come up in low stakes games. In my last session, an opponent check-jammed QT on T55rb, in a 3-way pot, over a donk and my raise as the PFR. I made a potentially stupid call with KT and scooped, because I was getting 3:1 and thought V might be an idiot. Everyone at the table was amazed, including me. It very much felt like a dare to be stupid moment.

Thanks all!

Results:

I called turn, thinking he might be overplaying AJ/KJ sometimes since I didn’t raise flop. My plan was to fold to a river jam.

River was a blank and went x/x (figured he could easily be pot controlling with Tx now so no point value betting thinly here).

He rolls over T8o.

Flop call is fine. You keep in worse Jx or random stabs. Once he bets big again, you’re crushed too often.

Yea think turn call is a mistake vs that sizing.

I know you would have lost more, but I still like a small bet for thin value when he checks river. There's $520 in the pot. You could bet $50, and get looked up by all his Jx, plus occasionally he makes a crying call with 99-88, etc. Combinatorically, he has more Jx and other PP's than Tx, and there's a non-zero percent chance he might level himself into folding some TX trash like T2 (apologies to Doyle).

The big problem with this is that if V has KQ/Q9/98 he doesn't have to decide that often that shoving over an obviously weak bet is his one genius idea of the day for you to be burning money.

And I know it's 1-2 so "lol, balancing it", but if you get used to doing these bets someone will notice eventually.

Call turn reevaluate river. Just cause he bet turn doesn’t mean he’s jamming river. Some people will give up bluffs or slow down with a jack and give us a free showdown. Some might even check hands that beat us.

Loose rec fish knows his image
The donk = I’m not letting this check through
The turn = good, I’ve got one hooked - going big will make him think I have a jack

Most of the time fish are not leveling people. They don’t have a range, they have a hand - and when they get aggressive, it’s probably a good one. I’m calling flop, but folding turn. It’s an exploitative fold.

Note to myself: in a straddle pot, need to raise at least $40, maybe more to narrow the field. It sucks when everyone folds, but it’s worse when three players call. Probably doesn’t help in this situation as V is likely still calling.

In my games the donk bet is almost always top pair. They may have a weak kicker but second pair is never good.

You need good reason to fold big pockets, but if you ignore the signs that you’re beat, you’ll get outplayed - even by a fish.

Folding big pairs is a superpower. You might make a bad fold once in a while, but it’s better than a bad call. I still remember a guy that folded pocket queens pre-flop and then went on to win ten million dollars in the main event.

Loose-passive recs at 1/2 who take this line with Jx and 99/88 aren't going to balance by taking this line with KQ/Q9/98 and suddenly decide to check-raise the river with air when their draws miss.

1. Yes, fold turn. That sizing from a loose rec is almost always value.

2. Not really.

3. No, raising flop just isolates you vs trips or better.

4. Mostly Tx, Jx, and some overpairs trying to “protect.” When he barrels big, it’s trips almost always.

C’mon Doc, lol. He’s put in 115 BBs. He’s never folding trips there; the real non-zero chance is that he checked hoping for a bluff or thin value bet.

And is he betting 88 into three players with a monsoon flop and a 60 BB pot?