SB river x/jam punt

Pros:

good board for hero
hero has way more boats than v
hero unblocks folds
worst hand in hero's range

Cons:

hero don't block calls
micros

Well he's not folding AT, Kt, T8, bdflush, 88.

He's only folding bluffs and Ax
and maybe JQ.

Question becomes what bluffs does he have?? 79/j9?
Is Ax really betting river?

So imho, his range is value heavy on river. He's not folding much value on river.

I think 2x jamming or betting small is a bit better than check/shove river.

River is just a x/f here for me.

Villain could get to the river with a lot of Kx hands, but would they still bet them?
If not, we're getting almost nothing they have left in their range to fold.
Maybe they'd fold some straights, but even if they fold almost all their QJ I don't think shoving is +EV. Also doubt they would fold the straight.

Maybe a small river bet would work, we could get a lot of Kx hands to fold.

You know nothing about your opponent ?

If you decide to put all your stack in, maybe overbet turn + shove river is better.

No eyes on villain.

However, upon reflection, i think this is certainly a punt...

When he bets this size i do think he has folds. GTOw happy with hero's play up to the last node, but doesn't anticipate this betsize from villain, which was half the reason i launched the attack.

ReSuLts:

Hi Yeo

What's up?! Are you just back from a long break too?

Kinda. I also learn pretty slow tbh 😉. Part timer.

What is this flop play? Just cbet, if you hit a 9, he has bunch of QJ Q8 hands.

Assumption being IP is way over stab/folding this board? Pretty ok FE on good turns after x/r because of prevalence of drawing/weak pair hands

Would suspect it's easier for them to play this board vs a cbet too

Kind of hard to bet/call with this combo too . Been a couple days but I'm sure gtow was happy with the hand selection

Player that over fold to XR will also over fold to cbet dlay cbet xc-x-b line ect. You just blowing the pot with nut low GS.

It's ok by GTO, esp if we think IP is overstabbing. Betting probably fine too ofc. But MDA say:

a) they overstab flop and, crucially
b) they massively cbet turn (+11 > alpha), fish and reg

So much less likely to realise in B-X-B imo. This board seems like they would have an unpredictable assortment of C-X-C combos too, being late pos and stationy micros. So I'm not sure how you can quantify the lesser chance this very average hand makes any equity with a scattered line vs the much more likely scenario that they overstab flop and all our mixed x/r combos print via fast play?

My favourite kind. We block them having the nut low GS 😉

They will slightly overcall x/r but:

https://ibb.co/21tP1PrD

ImgBB

Screenshot-327 hosted at ImgBB

+6 on the turn barrel as a consequence so idk man. Seems fairly profitable line (flop/turn)

Flop raise okay as a bluff, but give up after turn call.

In BB vs BTN, I like that line in general although this board is not entirely ideal for that. Assume a 9 lands - on KT98 you are very unlikely to get paid and might get dominated by better two pair (if you hit them)/better straight (QJ/J7). Here, you are the PFR, the board hits your range quite well, you have some backdoors -> bet. Turn is a good 2nd barrel card. River is quite problematic, but since this is the very bottom of your range - 3rd barrel would be a good move here. Plenty of his broadways shouldn't even be here if he 3-bets them preflop.

As played, you lost your initiative and hope that:
- he bet/called you with a float
- called your 2nd barrel after x/r
- then instead of checking, decided to bet river -> that screams with strength and you x/r right into the bear and beg to get mauled

I'm a low price leonard dicaprio. Only instead of receiving an Oscar, I just give you all my money