bluffing in 3-way pot
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 103 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 110.3 BB (VPIP: 29.13, PFR: 19.72, 3Bet Preflop: 4.24, Hands: 447)
UTG: 121.8 BB
MP: 120.6 BB (VPIP: 21.80, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.74, Hands: 411)
CO: 76.9 BB (VPIP: 42.77, PFR: 5.03, 3Bet Preflop: 1.32, Hands: 161)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♦ A♦
fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold
Flop: (8.5 BB, 3 players) 6♥ 4♦ 9♠
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks
Turn: (8.5 BB, 3 players) 7♣
Hero bets 8 BB, MP calls 8 BB, fold
River: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 2♦
Hero bets 23 BB
Preflop I hesitated to squeeze but the hand is not ideal and I was concerned the recreative player in CO could call the squeeze and put me in an awkward spot on most boards + BB seems passive so I don't expect he'll blow me off my hand very often of I just flat.
On the flop I am not sure how MP plays, maybe they check their complete range (that's what I would do) maybe not.
On the turn I decide to start bluffing, but now I think it is a mistake: I played it like if I was BB, with all the straights, sets and 2-pair available. But from SB this is wrong.
On the river I assume I have still good fold equity, because I guess in my microstakes pool their range for calling turn will be too weak (any 9, A8, K8, maybe even some A5, etc) and even an overpair will hesitate calling a big bet on the river
OK?
9 Replies
Yeah good thought process. Your logic about range advantage is good but as you said, you don’t rep enough nutted combos from SB. Turn bet doesn’t make much sense from a range standpoint. River bluff works in theory, but population at NL10 won’t fold enough. So in practice, just give up turn.
Squeeze or fold. If you're worried about CO just fold.
Postflop: meh. If you want to rep the nuts OTR overbet. If I'm MP I still have my OPs in this line and I'd call ≤ pot because it looks spewy. Station population moreso.
Why bluffing with 6,7,9 on the table, OOP with two players? How is that even legal
Mhhhhh, they folded this time, but still I think it was a little bit too random.
So betting pot we need >50% folds:
Of their approx pot turn calling range, let's assume they fold 55, 88, A6s, A7s, A8s, 78s (maybe)
Let's also assume they almost never fold AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s (although some of those will lead flop)
It's pretty close. And probably too close to be very or at all +EV imo. River is a brick, that's not usually a good card to attack after a turn psb. MP's stats lean passive reggish too, which increases likelihood of that stronger overcalling range. I'd say you got away with this one but it probably won't pan out.
Not that there's anything inherently wrong with attacking multiway weak lines with creative lines per se. But i'd feel better about it if it wasn't a rainbow turn.
Turn bet is risky. MP still has all the good hands. People at NL10 don’t fold pairs, so just give up.
Preflop if fish is 100bb then i like sqz more to try isolating him.
Flop with the fish in co i think mp betting frequency will go up significantly and he will move away from range check most likley. I dont see him checking overpairs very often or nutted hands like sets because he want to build the pot vs the fish.
Turn i like your bet you have percieved all the sets so you hit this texture well and you fold out Ax that dominate you also i think the ip players are very capped. A overbet would make more sense theoreticly exploitivly it is fine to go pot turn so you have more fold eq on river.
I think river then is very important to put pressure on mp but i think you pick the wrong sizing i would like a 2x pot bet here putting the view overpairs and the pairs in his range into max pain.
About people not folding pairs in low stakes it has i think something to do with most lowstakes players not finding big enough bets to put this hands in a **** spot.
About people not folding pairs in low stakes it has i think something to do with most lowstakes players not finding big enough bets to put this hands in a **** spot.
Yeah that's a good point. I think some aggro players (fish) will breakeven and even +EV on guts alone.
I'd say the wider issue for players like myself is that to make large enough bets players need confidence that it's fundamentally 'correct' or worthwhile to do so, and that stems from range assumptions that take either NASA size gigabrains or lots of play and experience to build intuition.
Plus, everyone, inc regs are stations too ofc
Yeah that's a good point. I think some aggro players (fish) will breakeven and even +EV on guts alone. I'd say the wider issue for players like myself is that to make large enough bets players need confidence that it's fundamentally 'correct' or worthwhile to do so, and that stems from range assumptions that take either NASA size gigabrains or lots of play and experience to bui
In my experience it has more to do with humans naturally being risk averse. What happens is that unconciously the mind tries to keep us save and avoid pain / discomfort so it comes up with reasons not to overbet to not loose money or even bigger pain to look like a fool bluffing and getting called (shame/status goes down=less chances to get woman to make kids and continue your dna.
On the other side when the same player has then value the mind will come up with reasons why it is better to choose the same size like we did with the bluff which makes of curse no sense but this happens when our thinking/reasoning is fear driven. With value we experience fear of missing out.
If you would be in the wild and there is the danger to not get any food if you take option 90% of the time (in poker for example a big all in shove) or you get a decent amount of food for 50% the brain will try to bring you to take the 50% even if it is not + ev in the long run because the reasoning is based on fear and survival in that very moment (shorterm thinking).
The key is then to become aware how fear is manipulating our thoughts / perception / and actions.
The same is happening in real life so poker is great way to get more aware of your thoughts , observe them and be more rational and objective in your actions.
