NL5z - Rivered Set on 4-2-Straight Board in 3Bet Pot
GG Poker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 100.8 BB
SB: 103 BB
BB: 151.8 BB
UTG: 101.4 BB
MP: 124.8 BB
CO: 127.2 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♠ 9♣
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB
Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 3♣ 7♠ 8♦
SB bets 18.8 BB, Hero calls 18.8 BB
Turn: (62.6 BB, 2 players) T♦
SB bets 20.8 BB, Hero calls 20.8 BB
River: (104.2 BB, 2 players) 9♦
SB bets 51.4 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
Villain is unknown. My hand is essentially a bluff catcher. I lose to Jx broadways and some ♦ combos. I only need ~25% equity to make the call, so this could easily be over bluffed if villain jams AK or AQ. Call or fold?
5 Replies
It's close. His flop sizing looks whiff heavy, but part of that could be JT, Jx hands of course. At these stakes I would lean fold, especially the run out. But I don't think a call here is bad by any means. EV wise it's pretty close for the price.
You played fine until river. Flop/turn calls are good vs c-bet sizing. But on that river, your set is dead vs value, and villain’s bluffing frequency is too low at NL5z. Just let it go.
People bluff too little.
in this spot he needs to sometimes 2nd barrel the turn with hands that are not connected to the board to like AK, AQ, KQ and continue on the river and even then your hand is close.
I think your hand is break even / close in an equilibrium and considering population tendencies it's a fold.
Im more stationy here than the other posters. Im thinking about the 18 combos of AA-QQ I think they can still be betting. Some of his Jx combos that might check turn. There's 18 combos of AA-QQ, 6 combos of JJ, 3 combos of JTs, 6 combo of AJs/KJs w/bdfd. Axdd, Kxdd. I guess it's actually pretty close but I would call
You’re right about needing 25% equity, but that assumes bluffs exist. They really don’t here. It’s probably JJ+, some flushes, maybe QJ. Against that range you’re crushed. Easy fold.
