Israel/Palestine thread

I think what he means is by getting Hamas to make concessions, it put Bibi on the spot to also not get 100% of what he wants or look like a total a-hole.

I am not sure it will even happen, but if Hamas gives back all the live hostages in short order and Israel doesn't do any more major ground offensives, Trump will be able to call the war over even if Hamas meets no other points in the 20 point plan and Israel keeps a military presence in Gaza and does the occasional drone strike of a Hamas leader, like they are still doing in Lebanon.

And I agree with you (and 57 if that is what he meant) the coupe was getting the Arab states to force Hamas to do this. But it isn't all negative for Hamas. They will keep their weapons and control of aid. And they have plenty of support in the UN and other far left NGOs. So weapons will flow in. And Gazan society will continue to be extremely radicalized which works in their interest.

And this is kind of a pretty big L for Israel. Like what the hell was the last 2 years for if you're still leaving Hamas in control? Sure, they dismantled a ton of their infrastructure but still doesn't feel like a win for them.
I haven't read through the latest iteration of the ceasefire deal but recently Hamas said they would disarm when Israel has vacated Gaza and a new independent Palestinian government has taken over.
I fully expect the war to resume at some point so much of what's going on is inconsequential besides live hostages being freed.

Well, Israel has different factions with different priorities. The Likud party views a Palestinian State as the worst possible outcome, so a weakened Hamas in a destroyed Gaza with a radicalized population seems like a fairly good outcome if your main goal is to make sure there is never a Palestinian state. On top of this, we have Assad overthrown, Hezbollah on the ropes and perhaps even more importantly the US directly involved in hostilities with Iran.

I think Westerners also severely discount how important it was for Israel to find a way to weaken Iran and its Arab paramilitaries; and 10/7 (and just as importantly Hezbollah opening a second front in the North) gave them the opening to do this.

Trump even announced 200 US "peacekeepers" would be sent to Gaza. Which is much better for Israel than UN or Arab troops, which would most likely just ally with Hamas and cover for them violating terms (as UN troops have allied with Hezbollah in Lebanon) .

I never thought Netanyahu actually wanted Hamas to give back the hostages, lay down their arms and go into exile; and he was always (correctly) gambling their religious convictions and pride wouldn't allow them to do this. It would have been an interesting counterfactual what would have happened if Hamas did outflank Netanyahu by making a deal with Trump to give back all the hostages with little conditions much earlier in the war.

Obviously if Israel and the Jews become complete pariahs in the West moving forward this could all backfire in the longer term, but it is a gamble Netanyahu made, and I dont think we can determine yet if it was really an L or a W.

Question for Victor: now that there is a peace deal how much of your time will you now devote to pursuing Russia's interests in their war with Ukraine?

why would I care what Russia does? and this is not a peace deal lol. the genocide will continue but a little slower. Israel's desire to exterminate families will never be satisfied.

They decimated Hamas and Hezbollah to the point where even Arabs were pressuring Hamas to make a deal. Seems like a pretty big W to me.

Wut? Please explain how Challenger had anything to do with US-Soviet relations.

I don't think Hamas being decimated was any kind of motivation to Arab countries to pressure them to make a deal. You think the surrounding countries feel bad for them or something?

Many of the Arab counties directly or indirectly support Hamas and Hamas incurring losses to the point where it no longer made sense to back them unconditionally probably helped influence them (Arab and Muslim states) to pressure Hamas into negotiations.

No one feels bad for Hamas except Western Leftists. They are a useful tool to wage proxy war against Israel and by extension the US and Western culture. Would you feel bad for a hammer that breaks? No.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s a total victory for Israel.

Israel couldnt even take over a few hundred square miles in Gaza. the only way anyone would consider this a win for Israel is if they consider slaughtering children to be the goal.

No one is angrier than Victor at the prospect of children not being bombed. I imagine he’s been seething and losing his mind since the ceasefire was announced. Time for the fool to go back to stanning for Putin and Russia.

I don’t disagree and I guess there was growing pressure on Netanyahu to wrap things up because it was getting clear that Hamas was not going to be defeated without a major military commitment aka boots on the ground. Obviously there are probably 100 other factors at play.

Nothing has really stopped for good. Hamas will resume their efforts eventually.

Israel has clearly lost some international standing as a result of the war in Gaza and I agree that was probably part of the pressure to wind things down now instead of committing to a ground invasion. However, the contrast between words and actions from most of these nations has been noticeable. They may throw some strong words at Israel and the US but none of them will take action and in fact, many of them are continuing to support Israel and the US. And despite Israel hitting new lows in polls with Gen Zs, the Arab and Muslim states are telling Hamas to get their **** together. It’s a shift from previous dynamics imo.

It was discussed a lot around the time. Political commentators felt that if Challenger had been a success (and you have to remember what a big deal it was at the time) Reagan wouldn't have needed a statement win for his presidency.

This sure seems like a giant farce to shoehorn Trump in for Nobel Prize. Its actually pathetic all the groveling going on right now

I hope they give it to Greta or something. Nothing would make these ******s implode more than that

edit: Oh, I'm dumb, it went to some Venezuelan lady and the white house is actively melting down right now

Should have given it to Bibi and the universal meltdown on so many levels would be worth it.

Its all a bunch of bs anyway as candidates were deadlined in January and this is for 2024 achievements

It's far too soon to consider Trump for the award. If the Gaza agreement is still working and progressing a year from now, he might be in with a shout.

What for? I know they gave it to Obama for doing nothing at all, but that kind of backfired.

The entire world is not run on the basis of American hyper-sectarian politics. Neither 'owning the libs' nor 'socking it to The Man' really means much outside that deeply strange parish. The prize is awarded by a panel of five appointed by the parliament of Norway.

You mean Maria Corina Machado.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/venezuelan-politician-maria-corina-machado-wins-nobel-peace-prize

the Guardian

Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado wins Nobel peace prize

If I'm being dismissive its only because I have no clue who she is, not because shes a foreign woman.

Kind of weird place to go to tbh

It’s the ME, more specifically the Israelis and Palestinians. You take any peace, however fleeting or contrived as a blessing.

Depends. If the situation stabilises, and the much-advertised Arab-financed reconstruction gets underway, and the Arab states don't want Hamas around (and even Qatar is revising its position), and Iran doesn't want to make itself a target again, the whole thing changes and Hamas gets left behind. The Israelis currently in power want to continue the war at all costs, but they may find themselves painted into a diplomatic corner.

And you couldn't be bothered to find out, despite the extreme simplicity of doing so, probably for one or more of the reasons given above.