Nut Nut's Attempt At A Book About Politics & Society

Lol, trump isn't going to send you to prison.

But that is one hell of a projection from your created fears from your own tyrannical mindset considering that you have specifically, multiple times, stated that you'd drop the hammer (equal to and beyond jailing) on anyone who'd disobey your own personal takes with ideas of their own.

No, you didn't understand my post. I was clearly saying it doesn't go in just one direction. Since you ignored it, I'll ask again

This started the whole discussion. Do you know the answer now?

I understood your post perfectly.

Why did you feel the need to clarify that it didn't only go in once direction .... when it was already perfectly obvious ?

How many times previously did I used the words "cycle" and "oscillation"? 100 ?

There was never any suggestion that it only went in one direction. In this case..... you're hallucinating a contrast to argue against when there was no contrast to begin with.

I admire the gaslighting and filibustering efforts here to avoid talking about the feedback loops we have triggered and where they will take us.

God forbid we should address anything of consequence to humanity at large. Right ?

Suppose you have a large helium balloon attached to a long string, so that as it goes up and down in altitude the balloon’s size increases and decreases. As a loose analogy, let’s call that an increase and decrease in eccentricity.

NASA’s version would sound something like this:

“The balloon’s size isn’t perfectly fixed, but it’s pretty close. Over time, the tugging on the string causes the balloon’s size to vary slightly, sometimes expanding a bit, sometimes contracting a bit.”

Tugging... causes... eccentricity to vary.

Initial conditions caused that eccentricity, just as the initial conditions caused the balloon's size that the tugging simply varied.

What does a doubling of CO2 mean ?

1) The world grows darker as a result of the loss of ice and snow. Darker earth absorb more solar radiation, creating more heat. This is why the Arctic is the fastest warming region in the world.

2) Arctic Amplification fundamentally alters the midlatitude wind circulation (jet stream / Ferrel Cell) in the N. Hemisphere. Resulting in much greater amplitude and stickiness of the prevailing circulation and greater transference of air masses between polar and equatorial regions. This leads to events like huge winter storms in Texas and intense heat waves in Canada.

3) Hydrological cycles are fundamentally altered. A warmer atmosphere holds 7% more moisture for each degree Celsius increase in air temp. This effectively makes the air a vacuum cleaner which sucks water from plants and soils and returns it in increasingly intense deluges which cause floods such as Hurricane's Helene and Harvey caused as well as intense droughts.

4) Wildfire acreage is expanding rapidly as a result of drought, heatwaves and the increasing breeding cycles of bark beetles.

5) Sea level rises globally as a result of thermal expansion, loss of land bound ice and rises regionally in places like the SE US as a result of the slowing ocean circulation.

6) The overturning ocean circulation slows as a result of changing ocean salinity. The ocean circulation travels along a density gradient and the density is a function of salinity and temperature. Ice loss in Greenland is hosing fresh water into the Irminger Sea region where the overturning circulation has historically sank (during the period of human civilization).

7) The overturning ocean circulation is an important aspect of ocean chemistry as it delivers atmospheric gases like oxygen to ocean depth. The ocean is become deoxygenated as a result.

8) A warmer ocean kills coral reefs. Important habitats for ocean life.

9) Permafrost thaws. Releasing stored GHG's like methane, either directly or through enhanced microbiological metabolism.

10) Wetlands release methane, as do fracking welsl and warmed methane hydrates.

11) Fresh water sources are lost or diminished. Mountain glaciers are disappearing. Many are projected to be gone by the end of the century and they happen to be a source of water and stability for billions of people. In places like Florida, rising sea water pushes through porous geology to invade freshwater acquifers. Places like the Colorado River Basin receive declining snowpack.

12) Property insurance markets are collapsing due to increasing flood and wildfire losses as well as inflation in the cost of a declining pool of natural resources.

13) The absence of property insurability leads to a vicious cycle of mortgage unavailability ==> property value decline ==> Municipal financial failure ==> Loss of public services ==> outmigration. In terms of the larger financial system, the devaluation of assets will lead to a banking crisis as a result of failing capital ratios. Global supply chains will fail.

14) A warmer ocean absorbs less atmospheric CO2 meaning a greater share of CO2 remains in the atmosphere.

15) All of the above factors which cause either a) the release of GHG's from earth reservoirs or b) cause the decline in absorption of GHG's are amplifying feedbacks which cause GHG levels to rise even further than the amount be added by human activity.

16) The ocean becomes more acidic as a result of CO2 absorption.

How do current GHG levels contrast with human experience ?

Modern humans emerged evolutionarily no more than 300k years ago. We have survived through 3 Milankovitch Cycles transitions between cool ice age and warm period.

Current GHG levels have not been experienced on Earth for over 10M years. A period more than 30x longer than the entirety of human existence.

Humans have zero acquaintance with an Earth system which has reached equilibrium to current GHG levels, let alone the much higher GHG levels we have made inevitable as a result of the feedback loops we have initiated.

Prognosis .... collapse of the current version of human civilization is virtually certain.

The current version enhances breeding rights for the behavior which causes the problem. That will obviously end in some fashion. Proactively or reactively.

The question as to whether anything whatsoever will be salvaged remains to be seen.

GHG's are not the only environmental risk. A collapsing civilization runs the risk of not being able to properly manage important functions like nuclear waste. Plastic proliferation may reach a critical mass and impact important biological functions like fertility. Human created entities like viruses (or the release of ancient viruses from frozen sources) may cause a disease outbreak.

The meaningful release of methane hydrates from the ocean into the atmosphere would almost certainly result in a mass extinction event which would take us with it.

We live in a system which has yielded us immense benefits historically.

We live longer. We have more information. We have more geographic mobility. We have homes which better insulate us from environmental stressors.

But we have failed to recognize the transformation of a once beneficial system into something malignant.

In my opinion, the definition of intelligence is found in the awareness and capacity to adapt as necessary to survive.

I reject notions of intelligence which are detached from survival.

Humanity as a whole has gone stupid.

There are some examples of human systems which have proved more durable. Native Americans had a 15,000+ year run of environmental stability before Europeans showed up.

In just 500 years, we've turned the place into a toxic dump which is en route to emulating the opening scene from Wall-E while Musk and friends attempt to build the spaceship from Wall-E.

Curious how no one bothers to comment on this, isn't it ?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/countering-domestic-terrorism-and-organized-political-violence/

The White House

Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence

There are common recurrent motivations and indicia uniting this pattern of violent and terroristic activities under the umbrella of self-described “anti-fascism.” These movements portray foundational American principles (e.g., support for law enforcement and border control) as “fascist” to justify and encourage acts of violent revolution. This “anti-fascist” lie has become the organizing rallying cry used by domestic terrorists to wage a violent assault against democratic institutions, constitutional rights, and fundamental American liberties. Common threads animating this violent conduct include anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity; support for the overthrow of the United States Government; extremism on migration, race, and gender; and hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family, religion, and morality.

I'm anti-capitalist and I support the transition away from national governance to global governance. I'm also not a Christian.

I'd say that I fit right in the crosshairs of Trump's desire to silence people like me.

Again, then why did you ask this if you understood "perfectly" all along? And what is the answer?

I know I said I wouldn't comment anymore, but I am weak and can't help myself.

Nut Nut, you said this -

The bold is wrong and the entire reason you are being criticized.

It's just the starting point to expose his unwillingness to learn and actually debate from common facts.

You have posted so many times the same post with a few words added/changed that I don't bother to read any of it anymore.
Unfortunate side effect of spamming wall of texts, you are addressing everything at once.
On a purely messaging standpoint, this is not optimal.

Also doesn't help knowing you will respond very defensively about any comments, so why bother?

There is no debate being offered here to the hypothesis of intermediate term civilization collapse (decades in my opinion) and therefore I think it's reasonable to conclude that there is no cogent alternative.

by Nut Nut m

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/countering-domestic-terrorism-and-organized-political-violence/

The White House

Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence

There are common recurrent motivations and indicia uniting this pattern of violent and terroristic activities under the umbrella of self-described “anti-fascism.” These movements portray foundational American principles (e.g., support for law enforcement and b... See full post

Your views and the playbook used to promote those radical left views are in the crosshairs of the overwhelming majority of Americans. So yeah, they're going to do whatever they can to silence you. What else would you expect? That's what happens when you start an untelevised cultural revolution... and lose.

But “silence” in that sense isn’t anything physical like sending you off to an un-indoctrination camp or whatever, if that’s what you meant. Cultural wars like this are fought with the same weapons no matter which side’s using them: condemnation, ridicule, and mockery.

Sure, at first there’s the real harsh stuff. But that’s mostly revenge of the canceled, another stupid word, since you can’t actually cancel people. You can silence them, sure, but if you don’t change their minds, they just get angrier and angrier. That fades, though, and after a while silencing turns into walking into a job interview in the Reagan ’80s wearing a commie uniform.

From a scientific method perspective

Observations: Regular Earth Transitions Between Ice Age & Warm Period Concurrent With An Increase of Atmospheric CO2 from 160 to 280 ppm. The range of CO2 levels which have existed throughout human evolution. Historical Correlation Between Temperature & CO2 levels.

Hypothesis: GHG's and temperature are part of a reinforcing feedback loop.

Experiment: Human industrial activities responsible for increase in CO2 levels over 425PPM and methane levels from 0.6 ppb to 1.9. ppb. Combined these factors result in more than a doubling of GHG forcing vs the maximum in historical human experience.

Results: Abundant evidence of feedback loops detected. Average surface temos have increased by 1.5C. Earth carbon reservoirs failing. Sea level rise accelerating. Wind and ocean circulation altered. Fundamentally altered hydrological cycles resulting in increased drought, wildfire and flooding. Human financial systems stressed as a result of property loss and damage.

Theory: These feedback loops will continue to deepen and have passed tipping points congruent with the continuity of human civilization.

Alternative Theory: None proposed.

Do you think the consequences of planetary transformation are best characterized as a cultural war ?

The opponent to our culture are the forces destined to manifest themselves in nature from the outset. If you believe in God, then we're pitting out culture against God's will. If not, then we're simply illustrating the example of an immovable object (our culture) against the unstoppable force (nature). In this case, the unstoppable force is far superior to the immovable object.

Such a conflict was depicted symbolically in the bible when the Hebrews elected to worship a golden calf while Moses was receiving the ten commandments. The symbolism of that vanity is recreated today with the iconic bull of Wall St.

In 1985 and 1988, two prominent scientists (symbolic angels ?), Carl Sagan and James Hansen, testified to the US Congress about the perils of GHG forcing.

In 1989, the statue of the bull of Wall St was placed in NYC. It was a symbolic reminder of the biblical worship of the golden calf.

I'm not one who places a lot of stock in scripture. But sometimes the shoe fits.

Edit: if you believe in God and prophecy, then we are courting God's wrath in the form of those feedbacks loops we have initiated. Our vanity will be punished.

Interesting tidbit. I'm Jewish. My Hebrew name is Moses. Maybe it was my destiny to be a messenger ?

This is the essence of the conversation I have attempted to engage in here. Thank you all for your emphatic demonstration that you have no cogent alternative explanation.

Pretty sure what you’re calling “inconsequential” is the Earth’s orbital energy - the very thing the other planets have an "inconsequential" effect on - that’s keeping Earth from falling out of orbit and crashing into the Sun.