no man's land with AKs

Like your play pre-flop, but I think I would check the flop. We missed and him calling our cb really tells us nothing, so let’s see if he bets instead, and what sizing he uses.

Whatever villain does on the flop will give us a better idea of how to continue.

As played, yeah bet small and let villain think you’re trying to keep him hooked, because you’re loaded with value.

Preflop and flop are fine. There is enough flop SPR for us to run 3 barrels for medium sizings if we want. Bad turn card for us to keep barreling. Turn is a probably a check/give up the vast majority of the time, but there is a small chance that Villain will do something silly that would open the door for us to check raise bluff the turn at weakness or something.

I've seen this in a couple of your HHs. You raise pf, then bet small on the flop when you miss. Sure you might have AA, but it is more likely you have a weak hand that matches your bet size. I'd stop gearing your bet size to your hand size. Unless you are willing to make a significant bet on the flop or turn, you're better off calling pf with AK.

I would 3b this pre given all the callers, but if there were no callers I might just call pre to disguise my hand. The problem when you bet small on the flop is they can and should continue with a wide range so here we are on the turn without any idea of where we stand. It would be interesting to x/r the flop - if we check he'll bet the flop with worse hands and better hands, and we can put ultimate pressure on something like QQ/TT. Of course you'll be firing away on future streets but I think checking is better than betting. Betting accomplishes nothing since we'll get called by better hands and most likely fold out worse hands.

I like it pre and flop.

Without reads you want to play as theoretically sound as possible (I guess), and this flop seems to me like a range c-bet in theory.

When the J pairs ott, without a bdfd, this becomes mostly a hand with two streets of value imo, and therefore I would check almost my entire range; probably betting only AJ, assuming that you squeeze pf with that hand. I would also expect V to check back fairly often; if he bets, you can probably stay on the safe side and fold. Of course, you would c/c with any pp with which you get to the turn.

Near 7x open, from UTG1, and 3 callers, lol. Well outside SolverLand. Are all Vs similarly 400bb deep? I like the 3! and the size, but I question whether AJ is in H's range for this. Maybe it is? Accordingly, agreeing with pretty much everything Niemand wrote, cbet small (80 into a flop pot of 340-ish) is fine, and you'd do this with all of your range, but V has a lot more Jx than H does, so turn's going to be a problem. Guess H could size up to 120 or so on flop, doubt it matters.

Checking might give a 1/3 V the green light to run over you, but as deep as you are, plenty of room for V to bluff raise any bet, anyway. So check sounds great, and see what V does. Probably picking a better spot with AK; it's a challenging WA/WB spot with the AA/KK portion of H's range. But, at least by betting flop small, V is continuing with a lot more things than merely Jx.

OOP and turn card favors V's call pre call flop range. From V's perspective, H probably does not have AJ in his range. 3 barreling is probably the only way to rep overpair and make V folding his pp/Jx. The turn card is just bad for H, so best to give up on this one and pick another board to execute the 3 barreling. I am not even sure if we should bluff catch very often on river if turn goes check check, as there aren't a lot of combos in V's range that we beat with AK (assuming V is a regular 1/3 player).

I agree that pre flop and flop are well played. Just make sure if you're betting small here with AK that you're also doing it with your big pairs.

The small bet folds out some hands with equity, but more importantly it keeps your range uncapped. This enables you to play your hand multiple different ways depending on how the hand develops. Sometimes you can barrel off with AK representing a big pair and other times you can check turn and try to get to showdown. I'm guessing you're not 3-betting with junk hands preflop as you're expecting to get called, so AK might be one of your weaker hands when you miss that you can turn into a multi-street bluff.

The J is not a good card to barrel so I would check turn. The nice thing is that you're probably also checking AA and KK on the turn, so it's not like he can bluff with impunity. I expect the turn to check through a lot. I'm likely calling one small bet from our opponent if he bets turn or river, and am trying to get to showdown. Fold to significant action.

my hand strength has no bearing on my flop bet size in this spot at all, on this dry board im range betting small 100% of the time

i can see just calling pre with AK, but not because of my flop cbet size, but rather to avoid getting into difficult spots like this entirely.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - just check.

We can't rep any 2P, and V could have JJ. All his Jx combos should be checking back, allowing us to make a delayed c-bet on the turn.

TURN - meh. Think we can bet small.

I'm fine with pre and flop. Assuming we can continue on the turn ♣ T and Q, so along with us hitting on A or K that gives us like 23 cards, surely enough to make flop bet worthwhile.

Jx is not the turn I'm looking for so I would x now.

Pre is good, never calling.

Flop can go either way I prefer to check oop.

Turn is just a give up.

Venice's post is just bad. First off, you can use range bet sizings here. Secondly, even if you were using exploitative small sizings when you miss this is live poker and nobody is paying attention or taking advantage of it.

the only way venice's advice would work would be to very unbalanced, going bombs away with pairs and c/fing with whiffs (because going bombs away on the flop with Ak high here seems like suicide). maybe that strat worked in the old days but doubt its good now.

I read Venice's post as an observation of what OP does, based on multiple hand histories. The observation is that hero is telegraphing his hand strength with his bet sizes, which is inherently unbalanced.

I don't think blasting off on every flop with every hand is good, but Venice said we should be willing to make a big bet on the flop OR turn. I'd agree. We can likely check from OOP as the PFR on a lot of boards, and make a delayed c-bet on the turn for a larger size when our opponents check back. Otherwise we can make a large flop c-bet, or just go bet-bet-bet for more GTO geometric sizing.

I think his implied point is that AK needs to be turned into a bluff at some frequency, and if you're not capable of knowing when or pulling the trigger, then you're better off flatting with it pre, rather than 3B'ing. It is, after all, just a drawing hand.

You really have two options with this hand starting on the flop - either we're betting with the plan to multi barrel him off of say QQ/TT,99/AJ, or we just check looking to bluff catch. I think we're better off just betting big which opens the door for a multi barrel, or at least betting smaller with the intent to barrel the turn aggressively. That decision is really population based - do people at these stakes never fold AJ here or will they.

Flop size is too small, if he's somewhat of a good player he'll realize you have a lot of AK type hands that would take this line, the sizing to me is pretty indicative of a missed AK. V prob has Jx, JJ, TT he doesn't want to fold or QQ. There's not a lot of fold equity for a hand that called $140 preflop, usually it's a big PP or AK type hands but you're blocking them. So I like a check on the flop here. Turn is bad and would look towards giving up.

Well, people at most stakes rarely fold AJ on a J54J board.

At 1/3, it’s most likely he has kings or queens—he obviously doesn’t have aces, and we learned he didn’t have jacks—and he’s certainly not folding those HU after that tiny flop bet. Could the turn have given him AK w/a 4F?

I would've just called preflop after a big utg raise and 3 callers. After the raise, you’re HU OOP 353BB effective v an unknown opponent and 110BB in the pot, and no clear path unless you flop a 4F or TP-rags. (EDIT I see OP already mentioned all this)

But the raise is fine too, (EDIT I mix it up, usually depending how I’m running) especially in a loose game, though I think you have to check that dry a flop.

I strongly agree whatever you do on the flop you should do with range. I also prefer checking because I think he's likely to overstab this board, but I think betting range for the size you did is defensible, and probably equilibrium if he is flatting as wide as most 1/3 players do.

The turn is just not a great card, especially as a wider calling range that just called your flop bet has a lot of Jacks. Check-fold seems ok.

So...I don't think there's much value in fake-tanking to try and rep an over-pair in this scenario. If I were V, I'd be more inclined to believe you folded AK/AQ, or some PP that was good enough to 3B pre but can't beat Jx, like TT or 99. I'd think you're just going broke with QQ+ here, so the fake-tank doesn't look like a hero-fold.

If, for the sake of argument, he did believe you folded an over-pair, what future value is there in that? Like, what adjustment do you expect him to make? He might bet smaller with Jx here, or "bluff" with something worse than Jx that still beats our AK.

God forbid we call a small turn bet, and bink TPTK on the river, and go broke against Jx, or he just folds whatever bluff he had when we make an obvious value bet.

Range-checking as a default action when OOP and HU as the PFR isn't a terrible baseline. But we can still deviate and c-bet sometimes, depending on our actual hand, the board texture, and how we range opponents.

Here, when he opens from UTG1 and we 3B from the BB, that's a pretty tight configuration, such that we can't rep a ton of thick value on this specific flop. But, let's say it was K42rb. Neither of you is going to have any 2P there, and he's unlikely to have AA or KK. That's a board we could range-bet, rather than range-check.

I think part of the frustration you're experiencing is that you know AK is a good hand pre, but may not have given enough thought to how to play it post.

It may help to look at AK as the bluff we use to balance when we'd otherwise bet for value with AA/KK. But it also functions well enough and often enough as a bluff-catcher, when the pot is small and it doesn't look like our opponent has much.

So my preferred lines here would be to go bet-bet-bet if that's what I'd do with AA/KK, or check flop, call a small bet and check-evaluate the turn, or make a delayed c-bet if the turn checks through, but for a larger size. Occasionally we might check-raise turn, when the situation is right. Like, our hand has no SDV and V looks to have something marginal, and we want a range-fold.

If we're going to c-bet the flop, it's important to follow through with a turn barrel (or that occasional check-raise), because opponents will float too wide, and being one-and-done is just weak poker. We're asking opponents to steal pots from us if we're constantly giving up with AK.

Usually we'd size up with our turn barrel, but when the J pairs, I don't think we need to, because he's happy to continue with Jx, and would mostly fold his lower PP's, unless he's the type to get sticky with them, in which case, there's no sense in betting large when he's not folding.

My plan would be to fire small on the turn, and if he calls, probably shut it down on the river, because I'm not expecting him to turn his lower PP's into bluffs at that point, when he can just check back, and I'm not expecting him to fold to any bet that isn't very large, which would just be torching when he has Jx, or hero calls with TT or 99, or whatever PP he just can't release.

I'd mostly just check-fold river if he bets, but occasionally I might look him up, if I think he has enough worse AX or KX that he could be turning into a bluff.

Preflop he has raised from EP and you've made it 6x.

He flats so his range is strong, probably pairs up to QQ , AQ-AJ. suited broadways, some junk depending on the player.

The flop is super dry.

I would normally range bet 1/4 pot when I 3bet as you did which is fine.

But on this board OOP you don't narrow his range. He calls. what's his range now? Pretty much the same.

For this reason a check is better. See what he does. If he bets big on this board just fold. If he bets small call and see if a turn improves your hand.

When the J hits turn check it over and see what he does and assess from there. After you call his cbet he's giving you more credit for holding a jack, than if you check to him after making a mandatory range bet on the flop.

Checking OOP on specific boards in 3 bet pots is sometimes preferable, and helps you get to showdown as well as realising your equity by getting to the river. It's also deceptive to occasionally check your big hands to induce action.

As played it is fine. A frustrating fold but no harm done.

xc down

Post-grunch: $245 kinda sucks. It's pretty big for these stakes and it's a very try-hard size.

Depends on how they arrived at this size. If it was sloppy, then I stick to the plan. If they thought about it before cutting out exactly $245 and sliding it across the line, then I reconsider.

FWIW, solver is mixing hard with medium to larger bets half the time, and checking half the time on this flop when deep. Then following up with aggressive betting OTT, however it is assuming V has virtually no Jx in range either 4! or fold pre. Hands like AJ, KJ, QJ aren't in Vs range in solverland, while they are in BB squeeze range.

I think the squeeze is essential, you don't want to hit a pair four way. My default would be to check. We don't want AQ, KQ, AT, A5 to fold and these hands might start bluffing. We are ok calling to float against QQ, TT etc. We're pretty miserable if V raises our bet. So I'd x/c and play a turn.

Is the J OTF the club? If it isn't, it gets pretty hard for V to have a J because we block AJ, KJ cc. It leaves only one suited combo of AJ/KJ. We can x/r this turn a lot. If my read on V is reggy, I'm x/r in your line if the Jc is missing. I'm folding vs a rec (basically does he look disciplined enough to only be calling with suited broadways?). I think most regs are going to float everything and when we check turn will bet a lot with thin value and bluffs. A reg might check back a J sometimes trying to induce a bet OTR. A rec is more likely to just bet the strength of their hand, check thin value and overs and bet only QQ and Jx.

Hard to know with only 5 hands, but if he has a backpack, bought in with black chips from his pocket, greeted the dealer by name, I'm playing back. If he's wearing a shirt from his day job, messing around on his phone between hands, talking too much, his chips are in weird stacks, he ordered a beer - I'm folding and looking for a better spot to push hard.