Flopped set. After V's big turn check raise, what hands can call a river shove?

Good question, I think it's close

QQ I assume would likely have 3 bet, and do we really think any of the 2 pair on turn are in range and we block the ones with 5s? This leaves us with 88, straights, busted flush draws.

I think tilted villains may call off their straights and 54, though we have to balance that with 88, and perhaps quad 4s.

Add in some random spaz factor that might call (e.g. AhQh) and I'm shoving.

Easiest shove ever?
We only lose to 88/44

To call pre w/67s, 45s, 84s, Q4s is loose… if that matches his overall play then very easy allin

If tighter and actually wins then don’t shove

a straight is never folding dude

shove, lose to 88, standard

Shove. Lots of value from straights. Also likely there are random bluffs here, but not our main concern. Sure V can have 88, but we lose money in the long term if we just call as there are more straight combos than 88.

that's a shove. More combos of 67 than 88 and 44, but he can probably also have Q8 even Q5. People call a ton from the bb for $10 more

Interesting hand.

Everything looks good to the river. It's only $500 more. Don't see how he folds value, so I think we just stick it in and pray he didn't slow play 88 on the flop.

And the award for optimist of the year goes to...

I'd like to thank the Academy. Now let me take up the next few minutes of your time with an obnoxious political take. Hey, why's the music playing? MY CAUSE IS IMPORTANT AND PEOPLE DESERVE TO KNOW!

Interesting hand. I think I'd shove too.

Results?

I think it's close. Four combos of 88/44 have us beat, we beat 54cc, four combos of 76s probably call. Have to balance whether V comes in too wide with any Qxs that made two pair or a worse boat, any 76o, whether any of that is calling, and whether V has a x/r range OTF that includes some amount of 76. 5/5 is bigger than my stakes so I don't know what to expect from random Vs. A 1/2 player would have way, way too much of all of that and this would be an easy shove.

At the table I probably shove without thinking based on absolute strength, but with consideration I'm not so sure.

I would fold pre though; small pairs from EP are just not that great for this situation and so many others.

I call, because I actually do believe he would fold a straight (or worse) to a shove and would only call with a better hand than ours (88).

I'm really confused about the turn logic. If he has the straight, we're paying him off OTR anyway, we should charge all the draws he's semi-bluffing with. The only reason to flat turn is if we believe he has air bluffs that will fire river. He probably has a lot more FD/SD/2p that we want value from. So the action might be fine if we think he's bluff raising often, but the logic doesn't logic.

AP, jam. He was BB, he could easily have 54, Q4 even 84 that would play exactly this line and it's really hard to fold a boat. 88 would x/r flop at least sometimes. QQ 3-bets often, and 44 either x/r flop or gives up flop sometimes. So there aren't a ton of combos that pay you off, but even fewer beat you.

He should fold the straight, but the boats? Q4, 54, 84. V was BB and possibly steaming.

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Thank you for pointing this out. I somehow didn’t consider he might have a boat with a 4, because I mistakenly thought the big raise occurred on the flop instead of the turn. So that is on me.

Was he betting for value?

It's interesting he slow-played top 2P on the flop, then decides to fast-play when he picks up the BDFD, then takes a somewhat polar size on the board-pairing river that might have counterfeited his hand.

What would he be targeting for value? He loses to all our over-pairs and straights. We can't call with just a busted flush draw, which he partially blocks. Is he hoping it looks like he just has a busted flush draw, and that we'll call with 99-JJ, hoping he just has something like 8Xhh? How are we even supposed to call with 99-JJ on this board, as played?

Weird reveal.

He said he didn’t think I had on overpair. So I guess that means he thought I had AQ, KQ.

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Sigh. Missing value in easy value spots has got to be the biggest leak that I see all the time.

Not just in this hand. Recently, I have seen top winning pros who play huge games (equivalent to 25/50 NLHE) missing even value spots like this too.

For example, I saw a very good pro with online background just call a 45% pot river donkbet from a big fish on 552ddKxQx with Aces versus big fish's KQ. It was 5-ways checked through on flop. Pro bet the turn with AA and got called by BTN and BB. And then BB big fish donkbet the river.

Same pro missed a turn value on T62hh2x turn with KK when it was 5-ways on the flop. Donkbet from a whale, and a Euro pro raised a little more than 3x. Pro with KK just called, and the whale over called flop. When the beautiful offsuit 2 came on the turn, the whale and the Euro checked to the pro and he checked back KK?!?!?! when he only had a pot sized bet left.

Moral of the story. Learn to get value in easy spots. Even the high stakes pros mess this up, too but you guys shouldn't.

The funny thing about this hand is that Hero mentioned that Villain was stuck a lot and probably very tilted. Which makes it the river value shove even easier.

As far as preflop, please stop opening 55 from EP if you miss river value shoves like this...

Just fold 55 pre