Couldn't beat NL2 in 8 years, Will beat NL10 in a year

1st Monthly Update, 2025-09-08 -> 2025-10-05

First of all, i forget to mention my bankroll on my original post. My bankroll at the start was 95$(most of is C$). I played 400k hands and i broke even or slightly lost i think, okay most likely at minus, i could have shared a graph but there was a time period where i forgot to download hands and the download expired.

First month done. First week was kinda bad, couldn't play or study much, second week was okayish but i still couldn't play enough, third week was the same as the second, fourth week was bad. Its been tiring month, i feel like i need to improve my time management skills. School and gym taking so much time and like i said before school is like something i have to think about, something that lives in my head rent free, bad for my mental health but unfortunately i have to continue

My goal was to play 50k hands/month. I could only play 35k. I was thinking i shouldn't care too much about the volume since the reason i play should be to learn, i should care about learning more, but there was a point where i said, f it i will complete the 50k hands, then a few days later i was like no, because i was zombie grinding, playing without thinking, autopilot, keep forgetting what happened on previous streets, doing something and not being able to explain why i did it. I said no, no zombie grinding. Playing 50k hands instead of 35k hands wont make me a better player and i think one of the reasons i couldn't succeed before was zombie grinding trying to play arbitrary number of hands. My goal is to get better not grind mindlessly. I am not greedy, i am calm and patient, i am not degenerate.

I actually started off playing 4 tables(Rush Cash GG) but at the end of first week i made the decision to play on 3 tables only and actually focusing on the play. I think that was one of the important decisions i made.

In terms of studying i follow a few youtube channels. When i am outside i listen/watch "Carrot Corner" youtube channel, i heard polarizing opinions about him but i think he is fine, targeted towards low stakes players, talks a lot about wrong thought processes of low stakes players etc, only annoying thing about him is his accent and sometimes goes too off-topic. I also like channels like Uri Peleg etc. While at school i watched a few GTO wizard youtube videos but then i started to read "mental game of poker 2", i think mental game is really important, having right approach to the game. Need to play my a game. There are some lessons teacher doesn't let me wear headphones and have keyboard or a lesson that i need to listen in order to pass, so in such lessons i am watching a streamer called "Rake2High", i download a few of his streams just watching, asking myself what i would do and taking notes if he does something i can't make sense of, dunno what i will be doing with notes.

I am also doing some other stuff in terms of studying that i won't mention. There is also stuff i am trying to do where i analyse every pot that is bigger than 10BB but it takes time and i feel like not very useful without right tools, tried a few times. I feel like i should buy some GTO stuff like GTO+ or gtowizard. But before doing GTO stuff i wanna understand it and learn how to apply it to games, what learn from it etc. I feel like there are a lot of people who just tries to copy GTO output.

In terms of play, i think i ran really really good this month and got a lot of donations. I think it was the most lucky month i ever had. I played **mostly** decent, i did some stuff different. I made a lot of mistakes, most of them were calling mistakes some bluffing mistakes, i am not that upset about bluffing mistakes since i am learning to be more aggressive and gotta make mistakes but i am upset about calling mistakes, i am making such horrible calls. I think if i didn't make the calling mistakes i would be up 7 buyins more, at least. I will play tighter against aggression. There were times i was loose because i was winning, need to fix that issue, like i said mental game.

I learned a lot but not enough. I learned stuff that i am ashamed that i couldn't know/learn/figure out myself before. Like some cards were actually better for our range and we can bluff or something. The better the hand is(more equity it has) bigger we can bet, duhh.

I will not talk a lot but i fixed a few leaks:

1. I used to barrel a lot of middling hands on the turn for. can't think of example right now but like hands that are good now but won't be good when called, and doesn't benefit from denial.
2. I used to check good hands thinking he won't be calling off worse. For example in a spot where i have a good hand that is winning against 10 combos that are not supposed to call, like third pair or something, and there are a chance he may have rivered two pair so i am losing to a single combo. I was like "my hand probably best but he may have slow played or rivered two pair, and he is not calling any worse", I used to check in these spots, but now i bet, and they end up calling with hand that i think they are not supposed to call. when you think your hand is good, you just gotta value bet and let them find their calls.
3. I wasn't bluffing in favourable spots and just checking down thinking they wouldn't fold. I actually wasn't aware that some spots were favourable for my range, like A comes on river and it is better for me, can just bet.
4. Wasn't cbetting enough and XRing enough vs range cbets. I cbet more if board is better for my range and XR more with draws, bottom pairs, backdoor draws vs small range bets.
5. I wasn't attacking capped ranges enough.

stuff i wanna work on:

1. I think i am not 3betting enough
2. I think i am not 4betting enough
3. Should pay for GTO wizard or GTO+ dunno which one

A few things i want to say about twoplustwo. There seems to be a lot of toxicity and negativity but at least there are good people and i will be fine if i only look at good subforums and stay away from NVG and other potentially cringe subforums. Feels like people can't beat poker and gets angry when someone does. Like people get angry when someone accomplishes something, because they are losers, jealousy, sad imo. I also feel like people in "Blogs Goals" channel crave degeneracy, looking at the top posts.

Results

Like i said previously, ran really good and people donated me a lot, going allin with random cards jamming flop with Top pair weak kicker etc. My winrate is 6BB/100 but it should have been higher like 7 buyins because of the blunders i did. It is also 6BB/100 because of luck but i think my true winrate is like 2BB/100 which is kinda lame. I think it should have been like 10BB/100 if i had actually played my A game, last a few days i got really loosey goosey. You may say someone winning 6BB/100 over 35k hands shouldn't be a losing/break even player but i can take a window of 35k hands sample where i won 6BB/100 from my last 500k hands, kinda meaningless, low sample. Need to play at least 500k hands to say you are a winning player. (I mean may make the argument if someone winning 15BB/100 over 100k hands they can't be a loser over 500k hands). I mean graphs over low sample are kinda meaningless but why not share. (Also I think i got like max 3 buyins of rakeback, but not sure may be more/less)

My current bankroll is 146$, I actually hit 150 a few days earlier, but wanted to move up when month ends. I will be moving to NL5, i hope these 35k hands were the last hands i played on NL2. I won't move up to NL10 when i hit $400 on my bankroll and had played at least 70k hands and won at least 3BB/100. I am saying this because i may hit BBJ and have $400 or get really lucky at those thanksgg tournaments, but won't move up unless won 3BB/100 on NL5 over 70k hands. Will be easier on myself in terms of play this month, quality over quantity.

I wonder if there are people who are actually reading long posts, i feel like people prefer short updates every week than long monthly updates but whatever

Dates between 2025-09-08 and 2025-10-05, 28 days, NL2 only.

Long posts are fine. Focus on the journal style that suits you best, for what you want to accomplish.

While not everyone might want to read long posts, some do, and some read both as long as they are interesting. Maybe, if there is any part where you really would like to receive feedback, let's say strategy, or whatever, then I would suggest that you either make a separate post shorter and to the point, or keep that part clearly visible and separated from the rest. Just so people with shorter attention spans that want to help can also see it without too much effort 😀

Cheers!

100 buy-ins at the current limit, or for the next (e.g. at least 500 USD before moving up to 5NL)?

I did the latter before, but I think it is a waste of time, and does not offer any protection at all for a beginner. If you don't know if you beat the higher limit yet, and use a bigger BR to stay there for longer, and end up being a loser, the shot will just cost you more money. All of this while forcing you to grind considerably longer at the lower limit, when moving up and down with set rules a bit more aggressive is just more efficient.

My 2 cents 😀

Depends a lot on what kind of person you are and how you deal with losses. I always moved up when I had 100 buy-ins for the next level, moved down when losing 20 buy-ins. Never-ever had fear of going broke (=having to deposit). Variance at Poker is bigger than most think. If someone can handle losing huge parts of his roll without affecting his play, go more aggressive, i f you can't (like me), go for my nitty way.....and obv leave some EV on the side of the road. My way requires you to play something like a few 100k of hands on your limit, but after 200k hands your winrate will be relatively close to your true winrate. After 100k hands there's still a lot of statistical noise in it, after a few 10k of hands it's just variance, trust me! So doing it my way will ensure, that you know, that you beat a limit, but lose out money grinding NL10 if your skill-set is good enough to beat NL100.

I completely understand you and I used to think the same way. If the concern is having to deposit, just beware that it's not necessarily wise to hoard money on poker sites nowadays. I wouldn't feel comfortable even on pokerstars tbh.

@Peace&Love

Yeah thought about using headers etc but this app is kinda confusing.

@FR-Nit

6bb/100 but it was very lucky but if we removed super lucky and donation hands, and if i didn't made bad calls, it would probably/maybe be like 5bb/100, so still not bad, but need to not make bad calls.

I mean i think i will re-consider, and probably move up to NL10 if i have 50 buyins at least($500). I mean i have deposited a few times, idk it was weird feeling. Not the money being gone is weird feeling but feeling of failure, will be the same feeling again if i have to move down stakes.

Forgot to mention on update but i will move down to NL2 if i lose 20 buyins($150->$50).

@Peace&Love

Was looking into your profile and saw a post where you claim "courses giving away mda" is superior to solvers and courses. Can you give an example of a "course giving away mda".

If it can encourage you, I currently play between NL50 and NL200, and my goal is to one day be among the top 10 players in the world 😃

From NL2 to NL50 it’s actually quite easy to beat those levels, which means there’s probably something fundamental that’s off in your core strategy or in how you approach the game. The opponents are so weak, they don’t 3-bet enough, they’re not aggressive enough in many spots, and there are so many recreational players that if you’re struggling, it means you’re missing something big in your base strategy. Once you fix that, you’ll be surprised yourself at how easy it actually is.

Poker is an infinite game, so one day of study won’t be enough to fix all your leaks, but if you really put in the work, especially with a coach who helps you identify where you’re making mistakes, you’ll see significant improvement.

From what you wrote, I can already see one of your main leaks, one that many players have: you love the game too much and end up playing too much. That takes away your focus from studying, reviewing your hands, and understanding your mistakes.

At low stakes, the hourly profit is so low that studying, paying for coaching, or joining a poker school, where in just a few months you can move up to NL25+ and literally make ten times what you make at NL2, is the most +EV decision you can make.

I suggest you think about this seriously. And if you find it difficult to do on your own, getting coached or joining a poker school that takes a small percentage of your profits in exchange for guidance is the best investment you can make if you truly want to make poker your career.

Don’t let passion take over too much, speaking as someone who’s been doing this for years, it’s much harder than it looks mentally. Working alone for many hours and dealing with big swings is tough.

In a coaching for profit program, being coached by a good player, I managed to move from NL50 to NL200 in one year. That was the hardest jump, much tougher than going from NL2 to NL25 or NL10 to NL50, which are relatively easy. So if I did it, you can too. I’m sure of it, believe and keep going in the right direction! if you need advices or coaching lessons you can contact me here on gmail [email protected]

GL, following!

Just for clarification, I might have used a slightly too strong wording. It's not like a course/courses giving you a spreadsheet directly taken from H2N, wih all the data 😃

Dominate with Data, from Freenachos (RIO), is one example.

Saulo Costa's is another.

I made that post in a negative state of mind, and actually changed it (slightly) to a more positive one, better to join than to fight hehe.*

*If the post you mentioned is the one I am remembering here. And I was negative due to this: Both Freenachos and Saulo run a CFP that, as far as I know, achieved pretty decent successes. Launching public products, even if purely for profit motivations, put a handicap in their businesses unless I'm missing something. So, if this is true, why would those guys do this? I believe it is because they don't see a future in what matters the most for their bottom lines, mid and especially high stakes, but are still trying to squeeze a profit.

So to sum it up, it was venting a frustration about the future of the game on these guys because of something they did that I perceived as questionable.

I mean there were times i lost motivation. Yeah i feel like there is something wrong i am doing, and when i fix it, it will be fine, i mean i wont be losing.

idk about CFP'ing, i may think. Giving my "profits" to get better is a good deal, but there are some stuff i am hesitant about.

Ahh okay understood. I mean i think poker isn't dead at all. Fish won't stop playing because some people made MDA course or because solvers exist. They will lose faster i guess to regs, but idk. Havent tought about that. I shall focus on getting better.

100% agree, and even if it stops being reasonably profitable, I would still play lowstakes as a serious hobby anyway, game is too interesting for me to ever completely stop playing. And there is always live poker 😀

Poker certainly isn't dead and should never ever be, as the human brain isn't capable to play perfect (like a solver). Main-problem nowadays are RTA and bots. I have made HUDs and MDA professionally and worked with a lot of members of the mid-highstakes-community. Many of them moved on! The appeal of online-poker was, that you can make a decent living playing a game. If you are not willing to play on exotic apps, I guess this dream is dead.

I'm still seeing positive stories, they are just rarer apparently. Or maybe it is sample size, since poker and blogging about poker is becoming less and less a thing nowadays.

I'm extremely proud of this guy, I was following him at the beginning. Super obssessive, hardworking and consistent. I stopped visiting RIO, then randomly came back today, and saw his thread and the outcome of his effort. The "apprentice" becoming the role model 😀

https://www.runitonce.com/chatter/orca206-beats-5nl-on-acr/

Run It Once

Orca206 Beats 1000NL on Ignition

I mean the fact that some people move on from poker doesn't mean much about the game. People move on from things, hobbies, jobs. It just got harder, there are other areas like programming where a lot of people could get jobs easily, but now it is way harder to get a job etc. It was easy to make X dollars in poker in the past, now it still is possible but it is harder and you have to work more.

2-weekly update

I am playing but i feel like school is taking so much time and mental energy, i feel worse when there is school and play worse, and exams coming. I don't think people at NL5 is that good but i think there are less crazy people. I played like 17k hands so far and only won like 2 buyins. In some days i am spewing hard by being a calling station. I feel like i should focus on playing my A-game and not being a calling station.

I still haven't bought GTO+ or paying Gtowizard sub. I want to first understand GTO and how to read output, what can we convert the output into something i can implement in my games. I don't wanna end up a person who has gtowizard sub, looks at sims but doesn't know anything and trying to do whatever the solver does etc. I should figure some stuff out and buy one of them in 2 weeks.

I am making changes to my playing schedule:
- I won't be playing in days where i have too many lesson
- I won't be playing if i don't feel like it
- I will play less days and i will favour long session on days where i am feeling well instead of forcing myself to play everyday.
- Basically i will play the same amount but play more on some days and none in other days. instead of saying something like "I need to play at least an hour every day"

(written on 2025-10-19)

GL OP, honestly sounds like you're on the right lines and will be a solid player one day. I would exhaust the free GTOw videos and any P&Es you like, get a tracker if you haven't and post hands in strat to streamline progress. Take your time + good luck with school.

Poker won't die.

(& F the haters)

Skill issue

Yeah i feel like i am on right path and have good approach to poker but i have struggled with irl problems and lack of motivation for a long time. I still do struggle, but trying to make it. External factors like school, life, country, people affecting me negativly.

I have not posted hands yet, i may do it in the future, i think getting feedback from people useful. I go like "i should probably post this hand", then change my mind for some reason, not worth the write about, i played fine or bad and i know where i made mistake. But there are thing i don't know so i should probably post hands.

Thank you, F haters, poker isn't dead, it just is harder than once it was and people too lazy to put in the time, it is easier to say poker is dead and rigged than actually study and get better.

I definitley hated posting hands early on. It's kind of subconsciously tough to leave your ego open like that all the time, and it will feel unnecessarily brutal when you get a rightful earful because you had the audacity not to know a thing.

But it does make you stronger, + quicker, imo. Even if you played certain streets correctly, people will point out the secret wrong things you didn't even know you were doing. It's all free coaching. But yes, life and mental stuff first always ofc, it's only ever a silly game in the end.

Stay away from drugs, it's not good for you! If your last few posts in this thread were not made under the influence of drugs, then it's spam.

Knock it off with the spamming.

yeah i think i will post hands and see how it goes. I am not scared of being wrong, i don't have big ego, need to be open minded. What i may be worried is how helpful people may be about hand histories. Also i am not sure what kind of hands i should be posting, probably hands i wasn't sure what to do right, but what if my losing mistakes are in hands where i think i am right but i am actually wrong. But fore sure i shall post hands.