Buying extra ammo whilst shot taking?
*serious thread
QUESTION:
Would it be sensible/profitable to play lower stakes concurrently while taking a shot at highe
After a million flips, the difference will be, more times than not, much larger than 5 (could be more heads or tails). But, and this is what you seem to not get, the percentage of each will converge to be very close to 50%.
But what if lady luck was hiding.. three or four buy-ins down the road in a dumpster? a.k.a. way behind the three or four buy-ins you just spewed into the high stakes meat grinder? What now coach? Play the lower stake alllllll over again where lady luck was ruined originally for no less than triple the amount of work? Yikes. And that's IF one finds luck again. Shaking one's fis
I can basically decode any code in the world except some of your messages.
Ceres, do you believe at any point tails becomes more likely in an attempt to "catch up"?
If yes, that's the gambler's fallacy.
What about a million flips. Or a trillion? Are you still betting that the difference will remain indefinitely?
As Didace says, the standard deviation actually increases with more flips, not decreases!
But it still decreases relative to EV, because EV grows faster.
Imagine that we get +1 points for heads and 0 points for tails.
EV: 0.5 points * Number of flips
The standard deviation after the first flip is obvious: 0.5
You can only have 1 or 0 points after the first flip, and both are 0.5 away from the EV, so the standard deviation is 0.5.
The standard deviation then grows like this: 0.5 * SQRT(number of flips)
Try a poker analogy. Look at this poor soul's chart, running 70 buy-ins under EV lol.
Let's say he keeps playing 1 million more hands, and for the sake of simplicity his variance and win rate are static.
Should these two lines ever cross? Will the poker gods conspire to push these lines back together?
No. There is no force pushing these two lines back together. After a million more hands, on average, they will still be 70 buy-ins under. Now to be clear, they might cross or diverge further just due to luck. But their expectation doesn't change. That's the cynical truth about gambling.
Ok guys, the results are in!
(phew.. )
**************
1000 flips
[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...
Heads taking an early lead here. Storming out the blocks from the get go and letting tails know it means serious business.
...
10,000 flips
[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...
Tails, not be outdone, fires right back with a +35 victory!
...
1 MILLION flips
[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...
Heads, clearly insulted by its previous performance, whips tails' ass with an absolutely colossal and emphatic +714 last minute surge.
...
ONE BILLION FLIPS
[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...
ooooofffff... not to be outdone, tails makes the comebacks of all comebacks and absolutely romps home with a stunning +4395 victory! Hooray!!
CONCLUSION:
Exactly. You see that absolute difference growing, but it's still getting closer and closer to 50%.
I think Ceres is trying to send a subliminal signal from Rihanna's "Hard" video clip through this thread using his secret channeling method.
She will probably flip a coin 27 million times with each email to see what result will it give in the last try - which will be decisive on whether she should answer or not.
I don't think you need to think of it as an all or nothing approach. When you take a shot, it should be when you see a player or a few players that have tagged as fishy sitting in the higher limit that you want to play. It also, doesn't have to be an all or nothing approach. You have 2 tables of 50NL and 2 tables of 100NL going. You are selecting the juiciest 100NL tables.
