4D chess or go home banana you're drunk?

At less than 60BB effective in a raked game, this has to be raise or fold preflop.

I wouldn't straddle. I wouldn't defend.

Opponents who check back the flop here mostly have a showdownable hand (even TP) that they are simply attempting to get to a cheap showdown with. So it is going to take some large bets to foil their plan. But, I'll give you credit, you've committed to your plan.

Gtitlequestion:againstunknowns,mostlylatter,imoG

Imo the hand is well played post-flop, but the qualifier is necessary.

Pre is a defend if they’re raising 15%+, which is about what I’d assume against described unknown.

Postflop is a great line in general and good to have in your repertoire, though I will caution this is a bad flop and runout for it. Dry A high is the one board where people will check back top pair+ and the runout provided even a previously capped range some lifelines.

Turn is fine cause you have some equity (though I’d really prefer OESD on this type of turn) and once you get to the river this way you can’t win the pot by checking so might as well attack the overfolded node.

But I prefer the small stab lines on this type of board because it’s also overfolded (especially on this dry of a board) and won’t isolate you against their slowplays and spikes.

3.5/5: Not perfect execution but keep working on it and watch your red line shoot up.

Completely agree, although might go slightly smaller on the turn though to make the river overbet bigger instead? b188 feels excessive.

The board pairing on the river hopefully makes it easier to get folds from small, scared Ax but fish also get sticky on paired boards. And indeed it's entirely plausible we've been blasting away at 2p+ the whole time.

When he checks back A75, r HU, he usually has a weak ace or a pair of face cards. He is likely going to cbet this flop with air. He could occasionally be trapping, but he would probably cbet a set or 2-pair, as hard for you to catch something you like.

So if you are going to bluff it, as played is about the right approach. This flop is good for the preflop raiser against the straddle who is likely defending wide, so I would just give up.

This.

I like your river bluff and sizing. Plus the mongo turn overbet. FOF guy is very likely going to fold to either/both of these bets. And he's likely kicking himself for calling your turn bet. I honestly can't figure out what he called with.

Jamming river here is torching money. Villain calls Ax every time. Just check/fold.

I really like your style banana.
Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

I think this should go thru unless V was calling along with a seven. The turn smacks your range with you having the straight, not V. If he doesn’t have the 7 - he’s going to figure you do. So, there’s a decent chance he lays down a weak ace, which seems his most likely hand.

IDK if (FOF) helps or hurts. My guess is AT and less will find the fold - AJ+ probably not, but nothing surprises me anymore. Would help to know your image. If you’ve been slinging chips around any ace might call or if you’ve been nitty, all aces probably fold.

Villain is never folding Ax against overbet Turn, overbet River on a board of A7567?

I mean that's true for some Villain's, but without player-specific info, I'd expect a fold here at least 2/3 of the time.

I would check any time I hit against you and let you blast off.

The challenge with this line is that we could just be blasting away into a protected flop check back range. Think I'd prefer to check again on turn. If he stabs for a small size we can check raise for max fold equity. If he checks back we can over bet river with confidence. If he bets big on turn we can probably just fold.

I don't really get what combinations you guys are so afraid of here, other than AA and A7. I think the questionable thing from a practical perspective... well, other than straddling, which is of course extremely bad... is just to do it against an unknown, rather than against a more predictable player. But the board just paired, so A5 and A6 have just gotten counterfeit, and those are most of the strong combinations that Villain will have. He most likely has a mediocre Ace, and most Villains will fold a mediocre Ace vs. this line.

This

We also block KK.

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The point is he doesnt have AX when he checks back flop

Result:

then i would give up when he calls 2x pot ott lol

believe u can do what you're trying to do for like 1.5x ott which is closer to geo

i cannot imagine folding pre

solver dislike hand choice because not enough equity with a gutter and king signif interacts with his folding range ott (supposed to pure x kk otf and bunch of king highs). river basically never uses this sort of combo to bluff. i believe in practice esp when theres no bdfd population is way over folding to your turn size and may have almost no folds otr, even more so if you think he never has a8 / a9 /a4 / a3 from flop play. river jam is supposed to be targetting 88 / 99 and making ax indifferent (if you b150 turn) but i kind of doubt your pop is getting to river with 88 or 99 super often vs this turn sizing. fwiw i also strongly disagree with people never having ax when they x the flop

When he checks back the flop, he doesn't have much air in his range, because it is such a good flop to cbet bluff on. I said he mostly has weak aces or JJ-KK or sometimes is trapping. It is also a dry static flop, where the if a hand is ahead, it is likely to stay ahead.

You turn overbet represents a straight or set only for value. There is a problem blasting off when he checks a flop he is supposed to bet. Sure this line often works, but it isn't surprising he was trapping.

OP fell into a trap with the check to feign weakness and reverse tells after the turn overbet.

I am not sure about overbet bluffs. They have to work a high proportion of the time. Solvers suggest them when you have a nuts advantage. You technically do on the turn, with more straights. However, you really can't have AA or AK. Villain has a lot more good aces. The overbets represent only a straight or set though, not AQ. You could plausibly have a straight or a set, but defending the straddle you have a lot of marginal hands that missed, like the actual K9s.

You could probably get him to fold 99-KK with 2/3 pot bets on the pot and turn. What are you trying to get him to fold? I thought the overbets were to get him to fold weak aces. It would be difficult for him to stack off with Axs, even after showing weakness on the flop. However, you say he isn't checking back weak aces on the flop.

There are also some alarm bells you may have missed. Villain checked a flop that should be almost a range cbet HU against the straddle. Then he showed strong reactions to the turn bet. A good player is likely not to show accurate strong reactions to anything.

Ngl, I misread OP and thought it was B167, which even then is a little bigger than what I go for with my equity bluffs here.

Since folding ranges are so inelastic, B188 is probably about where the MDF approaches actual fold frequencies. (Talking about the node generally, it’s possibly even over called on dry A-high flop, straight completing turn.)

And as submersible pointed out, whatever extra folds you get from the turn is going to canibalize your river folds. So you end up having to be selective with your river bluffs, and given the board improved some of the pair+draws were targeting, and the stack sizes forcing us to favor another large bet, this wouldn’t qualify.

Maybe that deducts the bluff score to a 3 flat or maybe even high 2s.

So I guess I’m saying what I always say in these “rate my bluff” threads: poor sizing, subpar hand selection, bad flop and bad runout for it, and you misread a Hollywood, but I like that you’re trying.

I guess this explains why it’s so hard to be a red-liner despite almost every node being overfolded by almost every player: apparently execution’s really hard.

i mean yeah if u put in 8x pot you're going to get a lot of folds. but when you start using really big sizings etc you need to be very aware of ranges, frequencies, what your blockers do for you, where v is going to fold marginal hands, how many "free" folds you have, what you gain by using a bigger size compared to other options, and what your frequencies look like on different runouts. you also dont want to continue all of your bluffs across multiple streets. i think theres a fine line between playing really well and being a bad lag (i am not saying this is op) which imo is the largest losing archtype in poker. i think its pretty difficult to redline without a theory background esp if the thought process for doing crazy stuff with questionable blockers pure is "v never has tp because he checked a75r ip"

fwiw nodelocking ip to way overfold turn (which i think is reasonableish assessment when you look at the ranges - i have him pure folding tt-kk, at-aq, a4 / a3, ~85% 88/99, never floating k8 t9 type combos, and sometimes folding a8/ esp a9 as an extreme hypoethical) has oop basically doing this pure ott and then mostly (check 85%) giving up otr (with range not combo which also mostly gives up). probably he folds a bit less than this in reality, although maybe not bc 2x is scary af to play against esp if you've never seen it before, and the actual pop response is somewhere in the middle. would still imagine turn is decently +ev and river is going to be losing fair amount. estimates in extreme case here with no turn raise range and overfold is like +25$ for turn bet (will do this w range) and around -20$ for river bet with the folds coming from like a8 a6 type hands.

i do think a large part of the improvement process is making mistakes and analyzing them and not doing it again.

final edit is likely max explo strat here is to do this with your air ott and do something else with value in a purely once off laboratory node locked setting where v never interprets our ranges correctly or adjusts. its like a good trick to have as a once off in your arsenal but as soon as you do this regularly and people catch on your loss rate can become astronomical. think its very difficult to try to out think opponents every hand, and people that play like this (constantly out thinking / outplaying opps) seem unable to not get emotionally / ego invested in the game and as a result tilt whenever things dont go well. easier to just learn strategies and implement them for the most part imo

I can't discuss solver concepts in detail like submersible, but I know solvers recommend overbets only in certain situations, and this isn't one of them. He checked back, so he doesn't have top pair, but he did have top set.

You can go into theoretical details, but OP recently posted two hands where he was totally pwned or trapped. When someone makes a big show about being uncomfortable, and then calls 2xpot, that should maybe set off alarm bells.

Then there was the other calling a limpreraise with KJo and surprisingly running top pair into a set of kings. Then folding when you were ahead with a flush. You need to be aware that the limpreraise is usually AA/KK.

It is good to post hands that didn't work out well to learn from, rather than always showing off. However, what I see is a pattern of fundamentally unsound play and falling for fairly obvious tricks. Maybe some effective LAG play compensate for that.

This probably isn't primarily aimed at me anyway, but fwiw I don't have many objections. My first comment where I said I liked the play post-flop was pretty low quality (probably wasn't worth posting), and the comment you quoted was just responding to the claim that Ax doesn't fold -- which I think is wrong but you didn't dispute that; given your assumptions, the problem is that Villain already folds most Ax on the Turn.

My analysis of this hand didn't go beyond "I think most villains fold most Aces against this line given the runout", which even if true doesn't really justify the line because OP bet so huge (I think that was the main problem with my take).