Going all in BLIND heads up at the end of a small tournament (sit n go or pub game)
When it gets down to the last 2 and the chip stacks are still deep I like just go on all in Blind when I have the button. I announce this to my opponent and often they still decide to fold and surrender the big blind.
When THEY are on the button they sometimes just open fold to me assuming that i'm not going to look and just go all in....this is where it changes.. I WILL look at my cards this time and make a decision, it's just when I'm first to go I do the blind thing.
I realise this is exploitable, but by going all first I remove any betting size errors I might make and there's also nothing to stop me having a great hand or a hand with great potential sometimes.
p.s. at any time I can change my mind and decide to look after all.
7 Replies
I don't get this at all. Why when you are in position HU would you go all in without looking at your cards? You get to play in position with decent hands. Also, sometimes when you raise to 2x the BB will fold really bad hands. And when the BB wakes up with a very good hand and they raise it is easy to get away from it with just a 2 bb loss.
What is worse is that you are telling your opponent that you are going in blind so they can call with hands like Q8o or K9o and know they are ahead. If you are better than them, which doesn't seem likely the way you are playing, you are giving them a huge opportunity to double up or win.
It isn't that this is exploitable. It is that you are giving your opponent an opportunity to double up or win with a better than average hand which will likely miss a flop about 2/3 of the time. Basically you are exploiting yourself.
p.s., I hope you will change your mind and never do this again...
Against a blind all in, villain can call about 1/3 of his range and have about 60% equity. Your EV (for effective stack S) for a blind shove is 2/3*1.5 - 1/3(0.2S) =1-0.067S.* This equates to zero when S is 15BB. If you do this and your opponent calls 1/3 of the time, you should be doing it when short stacked, not deep stacked. For effective stacks greater than 15BB you are losing money.
* - the 1 in the calculation above comes from the 2/3 of the time that your opponent folds. This is assuming you win 1.5BB in those cases 2/3 * 1.5 =1. If there is a big blind ante you would win 2.5bb when villain folds. You would replace the 1 with 2.5*2/3=1.667 in the EV formula. This would give 25BB as the break even stack size. Again, you still want to do it when short stacked, not deep. It would work when a bit deeper though when there is a big blind ante.
Disclaimer — this ignores ICM considerations and is just a chip EV calculation. Differing villain strategies will also change the calculation. The main point stands though. If you are doing it when deep stacked and not when short, that is backwards. This makes sense since the positive component of your EV comes from villains folds. The dead money is more significant when stacks are shorter.
Against a blind all in, villain can call about 1/3 of his range and have about 60% equity. Your EV (for effective stack S) for a blind shove is 2/3*1.5 - 1/3(0.2S) =1-0.067S.* This equates to zero when S is 15BB. If you do this and your opponent calls 1/3 of the time, you should be doing it when short stacked, not deep stacked. For effective stacks greater than 15BB you are los
Assuming that your calculations are correct, that it is +EV to be always jamming with <15 bb effective stack, then OP should be doing this every time jam thing after looking at his cards. That way the opponent will consider folding all hands that are somewhat ahead of random hands. Instead of knowing that he is up against a random hand.
bbv
Assuming that your calculations are correct, that it is +EV to be always jamming with <15 bb effective stack, then OP should be doing this every time jam thing after looking at his cards. That way the opponent will consider folding all hands that are somewhat ahead of random hands. Instead of knowing that he is up against a random hand.
Yes, that is true. You would get more fold equity if villain doesnÂ’t know you are shoving ATC. I never meant to imply that blind shoving at <15 bb was optimal, just that it was +EV given that particular counterstrategy. There almost certainly is a more +EV open shoving range than ATC. My main point was that OP said he does this blind shove when deep stacked. That is wrong; itÂ’s a much better strategy when short stacked as should be obvious since its value comes from picking up a lot of dead money, which is more significant when stacks are short (and its lower risk when stacks are short and villain calls).
it also works great when I have a hand, i shoved KK in and i was called of course by something average like Q9. So I do get paid with my big hands.
I used to play with a guy that would randomly get the table's attention and say, "Get ready everyone, I might go all in with any two cards next hand."
Then he would look at his cards and usually fold unless he actually had a pretty good hand.
When he did occasionally shove he would inevitably get called by something like A8 after he shoved with something like AJ. Regs knew he definitely wasn't shoving ATC but people who hadn't played with him before and didn't know his schtick inevitably assumed he was shoving any two.
