2024 Fantasy Football Thread

It’s actually two seperate trades. Hurts for Javonte/daniel jones. And then Henderson for baker. I could keep Henderson and just do the first trade and hope jones continues the strong play at QB. I responded to the other team that every ROS trade chart has hurts well ahead of Javonte and asked for Chase brown instead. They seem to be close in ROS rankings. They are thinking about it

I would definitely keep Hendo over Baker.

If Dimes keeps playing well, a big if, then Hurts for Dimes/Javonte seems reasonable. I’m not so sure Javonte is worse than Brown ROS, especially given the Burrow injury.

I truly don’t know how to handle Javonte.

Like part of me just thinks he has this role locked down all year on a high scoring offense and part of me wants to sell at his potential ceiling

The Egbuka guy didn’t respond when I tried to trade him Javonte for him haha

Im semi trying to sell him + AJB for a top Wr but nobody really wants AJB right now and I don’t really wanna sell low on him

He looks good and I don’t see any threat to his role. Blue isn’t seeing the field and was a 5th round pick. Miles sanders is pretty meh and had a big fumble week 1

Am I overthinking things if I’m debating sitting Josh Jacobs this week? I have ok options on my bench but after what the Browns did to Derrick Henry I’m considering it .

I was offered AJB for Rome in dynasty. Insta declined.

I also think I probably just keep riding Javonte. He’s looked good, on a great offense, doesn’t have any competition. Maybe he just wasn’t healthy yet last year. Maybe the Broncos scheme and play calling actually held him back. Who knows?

That’s a tough spot. Who are the other options?

Definitely not an ideal matchup. But he’s live for TDs any week and the Packers are projected for 25.5. Probably just have to play him.

Jaylen warren would be my best option

Probably fps but also wouldn’t be surprised to see Warren outscore him. Jaylen’s role seems legit for now. I guess I shouldn’t have faded him in best ball lol. I do have a couple of dynasty shares. I didn’t expect Kaleb to be this bad to start.

On the main slate UD draft game ADP, Jacobs is RB6 and Warren is RB19. Jacobs projects better.

I thankfully have very little
Kaleb and but I don’t have a ton of Warren . I agree he’s been good .

I drafted Kaleb and Aaron Jones over Warren haha.

Ouch . I had Aaron jones in both of my dynasty leagues . Thankfully I traded him in one and don’t start him in my other .

We don’t need to see my Will Shipley exposure haha, but I decided to go all in on Warren again this year

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I only have 14.6% Warren. I would have exceeded 20% if I could have. I think people wised up this year after Brock Bowers. He was going in a QB rich part of the draft which is probably why I don't have more of him.

What does Warren have to do with Bowers?

Some pretty interesting data after the most recent fantasy X debate of what is better: higher advance rates with more concentrated ownership or lower advance rates with more diversified ownership.

They were both highly drafted TE's that went in/around the 10th round of fantasy drafts. It should have been obvious last year that Bowers was gonna be great. He ended up being great and this year it should have been obvious Warren is gonna be great. Last year I easily was able to get 25% Bowers. This year it was more difficult getting my hands on Warren. My mistake is that I didn't pull him up in drafts more.

I believe they're talking about Jaylen Warren. Not Tyler.

I suppose data like this is fun to look at. I suspect that the sample size of BBM info is far too small to make any worthwhile conclusions. Maybe 20 years from now we can talk.

Well now I know where the confusion is.

Sorry guy's.

Correct. Both Warrens being in the same draft range added to the confusion haha.

Maybe at the extreme of who finishes top 10, since week 17 is all that matters. I'm not sure we will ever solve that, since there is so much variance in a one week sample.

But I think as far as what strategy is most likely to result in teams making it to the finals, we can probably make some directionally accurate assumptions. I will continue to think diversified and lower advance rates is more optimal than concentrated and higher advance rates, where the goal is to have solid roster construction with regard to stacking, to positional allocation and with draft capital allocation. Ultimately, all I care about is how many teams I have in the finals across my contests.

One of the cool features of SaberSim is their contest flashback that allows you to review lineups and exposures of other players. The vast majority of top players will typically have their highest leverage players at around +20 to +30

Most of them tend to not be really overweight on more than 1 or 2 players because they understand the importance of having a diversified portfolio.

This was Shaidy's exposures in last Sunday's DK Milly

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That's interesting. Shaidy has an additional diversification tool too, right?

And to take it a step further, it's much easier to be 20, 30, 40%, etc. on a player in DFS. It's a single week slate where injuries mostly don't matter. If you have a **** week, there's always the next slate. The best ball slate is brutal in that regard.

Over a full season, there are so many more variables than in DFS. I get tilted seeing DFS guys trying to apply DFS ownership strategies for best ball arguments.

The other thing is that weeks 1-14, a single team is never playing against an overlapping player. What is good for one team may be bad for another team, which is why it's tough to both have high diversification and high advance rates.

And everyone is focusing on concentrated ownerships resulting in high advance rates when you're right. When you're wrong or your high ownership players get injured, lose jobs, etc., you are going to have very bad advance rates.