AJo on BB with 10bb

You didn't give all the info you need to make the decision, but I would likely jam.

Cause it was read based more than other factors and it’s like a hall pass inquiry I guess. What should I consider beyond that?

Biggest thing would be whether the tournament is in the money or not, and if not, how close to the bubble you are and size of the short stacks is extremely important.

I'm only considering folding here if we're like one or two spots from the money though. Otherwise it's a slam dunk jam. Weak players are 3xing the button here with all kinds of Ax and random hands we crush. You could even have some fold equity here. I wouldn't put too much weight into the timing of villain's action either.

Fundamentally this question is "should I trust my reads over GTO ranges?" I dunno, how good are your reads? I don't think anyone else can answer that for you.

Obviously if we're assuming standard button opening ranges (and that for some reason button didn't shove), this is an easy shove, but that's not the question.

But there is the question of what you think his range is to do this with. Is he only going to have premiums here, or will he have hands he's trying to discourage action with, like a medium ace?

Thank you all. As i said this was the first time ever I folded AJ type of hand here. I’d snap call if he jammed. Once I’ve read here “if you think your hand is worse, fold” and it was the only reason I did. I could be wrong tho, not about not jamming, which I know I was, but about his hole cards I assumed he could have

A couple thoughts about this. Folding here would be a large deviation from theoretically sound poker. In my mind this requires a large burden to justify. Adjusting by folding a pip or too tighter based on a read that someone is tight is one thing. Here we are making an adjustment that is massively over folding and opening us up to exploitation. Button could likely open 100% of hands profitably if we're folding this strong of a hand.

Now here's my read based only on the info I've been provided with:

Button is likely a fish based on the sizing. They really shouldn't be opening anything to 3X into a 7 BB and 10 BB stack here.

Possibilities:

1: Their hand is really strong as the original poster concluded and they want to get called. This could be true.

2: Their hand is not quite strong enough to shove, but they don't want to fold either. This is also possible.

Now for 1 there are maybe 30 combos total of big pairs, but for 2 there are literally hundreds of combos that they could be be looking at and raising to 3X. Q2o, J6o any random hand really.

So in my mind it's just numerically much more likely that we're ahead. It's easy for a fish to spazz out on the button but it's hard to pick up a top 3% hand.

Now all that's to say just jam! If they've got a hand stronger than ours than that's just bad luck. That's poker. I would even partially discount AK and AQ because I would definitely expect them to shove those hands. So we're basically worried about a big pair.

For me to fold here (not including ICM considerations we haven't been provided with), I would need some sort of extreme evidence. Like I have a HUD showing they've been opening 5% from the button. Something extreme like that.

Otherwise AJ is just too strong to fold.

Couple of things on that:

Yeah, but this is a $1 and villain doesn't know what we have. I think making the right decision in the moment is more important than worrying about potential future exploitation from an opponent who probably doesn't know he's doing anything exploitative.

I think there's a chance this raise could be something like ATo-A8o or any suited ace, but I find it highly unlikely he's just taking random high-low trash like Q2o / J6o and 3xing it.

I'm not talking about potential future exploitation. I'm talking about us inadvertently playing right into his hands by folding a hand that should be happy to get it in.

This might be a slight exaggeration but I'm practically fist pumping that I got a hand as strong as AJ here against a button open. It seems like a great chance for a double up as even if he was getting out of line he might then feel priced in.

You're reading all this just based on the fact that he raised 3x instead of min-raising and acted quickly? I find that inexperienced players almost always raise-fold too much.

Well, where are you getting "this is probably Q2o / J6o" from? I don't think I've ever seen a micro stakes player snap-3x hands like that.

I'm not saying he will necessarily raise with those specific hands. I'm just saying there are a lot of potential hands he COULD raise with.

See how the solver is raising to a non all-in sizing at some frequency with Q5s, J6s, T6s, K8o, K7o, etc.? I think a lot of recreational players recognize that they can make plays like this to steal the blinds from the button. However they don't have any plan for controlling which combos they're raising with and they end up just raising with whatever they impulsively feel like raising. Anything that looks reasonable to steal the blinds with is liable to raise. There are a LOT of hands that look reasonable to steal the blinds with when you're on the button.

Edit: I will admit that it's been a long time since I've played micro stakes online and I could be out of touch with how those games are playing. It's still a button open though right? And it's still only 10 BB effective? It's just math that AJ is usually golden. That's why a solver is getting it in with any ace (see the chart I posted in another post above).

Look... I'm not saying I have a definite answer that I would not get it in with AJ here. In a real game scenario, I probably do. But I think, again, talking from solver ranges and things like that is ignoring a few critical details of the situation:

-It's a $1, so you're not likely to see solver-studied players with well-balanced ranges.
-The raise is to 3x, not a minraise which would be standard if button isn't shoving.
-OP described villain as largely passive to this point and immediately raising here.

And is that range ICM-influenced or chip EV? There are 20 left, and OP didn't say how many runners there were, but I'm pretty sure it's a big field.

I think by default we would get it in with AJ here, and it may even be correct in this specific scenario. But our goal is to play the spot we're dealt correctly, not just to make a default solver-approved play. And that means taking in all the information we have available, including any unusual information about the villain's play so far or the raise size, to make our decision.

It's a button open. C'mon man.

I said several times those are chip EV ranges and we should be playing somewhat tighter (chip EV we should theoretically be calling a jam with ANY ace). OP never said whether we're in the money yet, but given that it's a $1 buy-in I am assuming a larger field and that we're in the money. I am not arguing we should play just like the solver.

This is not close. We have AJ with 10 BB facing a button open. Anyway we're going around in circles. The great thing about poker is you can play however you want to play. Good luck everyone.

Its difficult to look at this theoretically given the situation - a 3 BB raise into 7BB and 10BB stacks isn't too clever for a start.

Pretty much everything has been said. We jam this hand, unless we have a solid read that villain is playing a very tight range such a QQ+, AK.

I have had this sort of conundrum at slightly higher stakes, where I have jammed thinking how bad I was going to feel when he turned over his premium, then he calls my jam with like KTo or something.

Unless you have a very solid read, don't overthink, just jam............

I am not sure what I would do here.

Given that the BTN is raising to 3x with a 10bb effective stack I actually think they have QQ+. Could also be AK/AQ but I think they would mostly jam with those hands rather than want hands like 22+ to call (especially because they will miss 2/3 of the time and stop n go is a thing) I guess there are people who do a 3x raise with 10bb effective stack with QJ/JT/A3s like hands because they will fold if they get jammed on and are thinking that they are somehow going to save chips that way.

There is virtually no way they are doing this with bad hands like K7o/Q4s/etc. Because we basically have little fold equity here with 10bb's if we jam and SB has none with 7bb's.

It could also be that they are cleverly doing this with hands like 66-TT so that people like me will think they have QQ+ and fold hands like AJ/AT whereas if they jammed we would always call with AT+ because their range in a 10bb effective stack situation could have any AXs and any PP. I just don't think most people would do that with hands like those because if called and and we do a stop n go there are so many flops that hurt them and would make them fold when in fact they are still ahead.

Ultimately I think I go with the read that a passive player raised to 3x on the BTN with 10bb effective stack. And I fold. But I probably jam if Villain is loose/aggro or has raised to 3x before and hasn't been jamming in 10bb effective stack situation.

Like others have written: This is a $1. In absence of any solid reads on the player this 3bb-open could mean anything. Many players still overvalue Ax-hands and doesn't like to fold them. But they might also feel reluctant to shove, even if they will call a 3-bet AI from some of the blinds. It's irrational of course. But many players make a lot of irrational moves.

I also think many overvalues unsuited broadway hands and hate the thought of losing a hand like KJo from the button. So they bet more than normally, trying to tell the blinds to go away.

Because I think this type of player often will do this with hands mentioned above I would always call here, expecting to be an overall favourite.

(Against a range like QQ-77,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-A2o,KTo+,QJo (If we like some others believe they might shove AK and get tricky with AA/KK) we're 62-38)

I feel like my point is not being heard, which is that in any spot, you need to consider all the information available to you, instead of defaulting to a line.

It might lead you to the same conclusion anyway. But ignoring or rejecting information because it could potentially complicate your decision is not a sound way to play poker, I don't think.

I don't disagree with that particular point. What information am I ignoring or rejecting though? It just seems like a lot of assumptions to me.

This. We know the 3bb is likely a recreational, so I wouldn't make too many assumptions or assign a logical thought process. I understand why it sets some alarm bells but don't overthink it; AJ is super premium here.

I just filtered for this scenario and found 3 spots this month where recrational players either stacked off light of raise-folded here.