[2-4]: River bet sizing with straight against likely trips

Hm, that's a pretty specific read based on one data point. But I agree that if this were the case, then 3bet would be the play. Opponent being draw-heavy is generally the main thing that makes me play fast rather than slow with a nutted hand (that was the point of the TT hand).

My inference that he donks with any hand that is thick value but vulnerable to a being outdrawn comes from thinking through the logic that he called a flop raise, then donked TPTK on a turn blank.

That's a very strange line that breaks game flow, on a card that doesn't change anything. It would seem to indicate he doesn't really know how to range his opponents effectively, such that he ends up thinking something like, "my call of the flop raise looks strong, and I don't want my opponent to check back, so I'm going to donk for value and protection."

If that's an approximation of his logic, then it stands to reason that if he flopped or turned 2P+, he's more likely to donk than go for a check raise. The check raise from him therefore looks like something else.

Looking at all the 2P/set combos on the turn, we can probably discount some of the 8X combos like 85 and 86 as hands he probably folds pre. Likewise he might check-raise 66, 55, and 65 on the flop.

What's left are combos of hands that weren't strong enough to 3B, but seemed too good to fold, and connected with the flop in some way that was good enough to continue as a check-call, but not good enough to check raise, and then improved on the turn enough that he's not worried about letting you take a free card, but also doesn't mind getting more money in after you bet.

That sort of screams pair + big draw. There just aren't that many combos of hands that fit the bill. He'd have to have either the Jc or 7c in his hand, if not both. So his range that takes this line is basically J9cc, J7cc, 76cc, and maybe sometimes he shows up with J4cc, though I'd think J4s folds pre.

If we want to give him credit for a bigger range that may include some naked draws, that would contradict our read that he doesn't bluff. The turn donk with TPTK should mean he's not x/r'ing with just TP without any draw, and by extension any thick value hand that is vulnerable to being outdrawn.

lol i have no idea whats going on in this thread, most of it reads like an argument on r/iamverysmart . is like exactly how to inefficiently spend time on poker

am floored by "most people dont lie about their hand"

in general i think theres way way way too much certainty about reactions of an unknown vs an unorthodox line. cannot imagine equity lab calcs, coding in claude, all of this posting when you can just run a node lock in a solver if you're sure how v is going to respond.

Alright so this took longer than two days, which of course always happens when you program something because there's always bugs at the end you have to fix.

Seems like no one else cares about the result anyway. But that's okay because I care more than enough. I actually care so much about this. I really want to know which line is better here. And it better be the 3bet line because otherwise I've done all this work without getting to fix a leak.

Alright let's runnnn gogogogogoooooo

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Overall Result 3bet line (reminder): +352€
Overall Result calling line: +320€

Result by River Card:

Code: script.py, generic.py

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Alright so 3bet line is better! Shoutout to docvail, submersible, dangomango, hitchens97, javi, OmahaDonk, moxterite, WereBeer, and FreeCard for all suggesting the 3bet, and apologies if I overlooked someone.

It's not better by much, the calculation suggests only 32 more, but this doesn't matter for me because my point estimate was that 3betting is 80 worse than flatting. So regardless of whether anyone else was overconfident, I was 112 wrong in the direction of slowplaying, which is a major update.

(unless I made a huge error somwhere like having a - instead of + or something, which is still possible even though I double checked everything.)

The results by River card were mostly as a sanity check, and they do make sense; worst River card is the 6♣ that brings in flushes and boats, and best is, well, a bunch are very close, the duds like 2♠ and the cards that give him two pair like A♥