Nut flush draw raised on turn, makes trips on river

Any reads on V? I’m cool with the call pre if the BB is passive, even though I now play only fold or raise in the SB.

Big raise on the turn is bad news. Did V slow play 44 on the flop? Probably not. Against a regular loose passive in my cardroom in a six-way limped pot, I fold nonetheless despite the draws. What was your plan when you called the flop? Check call an A or 7, and check raise a club? If an A or 7 comes, you might still be behind. Six-way limped pots have plenty of 44 and 33.

AP, check and call a small bet.

I wonder if his turn raise was intended to keep you from betting again on the river. He might do that with a hand like K9 that doesn't want to worry about kicker problems. Maybe also some KXcc combo, raising as a merge.

I'd probably bet around 2/3 pot, to target his non-believing KX. He's unlikely to put us on trips, and more likely to put us on a busted flush draw.

If we think V is betting all his sets and OESD's on the flop, we could size up and over-bet 1.5x pot.

My reasoning for sizing up with an over-bet is that we're breaking game flow, something we won't be doing very often, and we're sort of depolarizing, betting big with a strong but non-nutted hand, hoping V wants to bluff catch.

V is going to have a hard time raising us with any hand that isn't K7 or 44 when it's a limped pot. Doubtful he raises with 65, or 33.

Also, I suspect his turn raise is going to be some BS at least some of the time, raising because he thinks you're just stabbing wide, or semi-bluffing with a flush draw, which is what you were doing.

I'm cool with preflop and flop.

Turn does complete some things and I'd rather not get raised off my great draw, so I think I prefer a turn check.

Facing this large raise we're actually getting very poor odds and it is doubtful we have as many outs as we think we might. Plus being OOP reduces our IO. Think we're forced to sigh fold at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This seems like a very meh strategy at a typical LLSNL table full of typical LLSNL opponents, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

We're in an eleventeen way pot and he's one of the most likely players to be slowplaying the flop (as well as us, thanks to being OOP and going for a check/raise). It's very unlikely he's getting out-of-line. It's actually much more likely he simply has the ~nuts.

GpostersarewayoverthinkingLLSNL,imoG

Turn call of 35 is fine with our 9-out draw to the nuts and ~500 back. Obv we didn't really hit. OTOH, trip 7s aren't bad, if still behind a boat or straight. Like Doc (if I'm understanding correctly), I'm not sure 3rd to act, 6-ways and that deep, sits on a set in a limped pot. Maybe top pair bets out too? OESD tho, yeah probably.

B/f 3/4 pot, hoping that Doc's right, and the raise was a bluff to keep H from betting river, instead of desperately trying to pile in money with the remaining SPR well over 10:1. We could also x/c w/e on the river, assuming V isn't going to go nuts.

As played, I'd bet/fold a blocking bet amount of like 1/3rd PSB or something. But unlike others, I see him as mostly having a monster, so I'm just not looking to valuetown myself when he does and meanwhile squeeze out something when he somehow (?) shows up with just Kx (even the counterfeited ones he sigh calls with).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I need some kind of read on V. Is he raising your almost pot bet on turn w/ a K, straight, set? Maybe he has the K-high flush draw?

W/o reads, I check/call. The river looks great, but if he's raising turn w/ set or straight, we are still toast. Plus, he might fold a K if we bet, but he might bet if we check.

It’s very unlikely we are getting bluff raised on the turn. We aren’t getting good odds and our A and 7 outs are likely to be dirty and cost us more vs 33 or 56. I would just fold to the raise.

As played I would check call a small river bet and check fold to a big bet.

In general think we're far better off betting the river than checking as so many insta check back TP and very few barrel bluff.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is just terrible. 1/3 pot doesn't get you much value. When you go that small, there is more chance of being bluff raised or value raised by worse.

In all fairness, I’m bleeding money in the SB, so right now I too feel raise or fold the SB is pretty meh. But the pros on 2+2 say r/f SB, so that’s what I do. Unless one limps often, limping the small blind is an exploitable tell.

80% of the time the sb limps behind in 1/3, so how can it be a tell?

I actually checked the river, expecting villain to bet and I would call. He instantly turned over K5o and seemed surprised it wasn't good.

I thought afterwards maybe I should have bet/folded. I would have gone about 80 if I bet and I don't know if he would have called that with TPNK.

So V was getting OOL and his raise was BS?

This is my shocked face.

He had top pair and a gutshot. I had a pair and the nut flush draw.

You bet almost full pot, and he raised next to act with a weak top pair and a gut shot to a one-liner, with two players behind him.

He was OOL.

This is why I bet/fold small on the river. We're really just targeting some OOL Kx (or perhaps a counterfeited Kx), and LLSNL opponents typically insta check back Kx as well as pretty much never bluff raise on the river. We also get to set our price against straights (who'll mostly just call on a paired board for fear of reopening the action, and this goes for worse value too). So bet/fold is way better than a check/call because there is just that much more of a chance money goes in on the river when we're ahead.

GcluelessNLnoobG

1/3 pot is probably good versus his exact hand. When he raises with a K, you would think more a decent king, like KJ/KT/K9. 2/3 pot needs to get called more than half the time 1/3 pot gets called to be more profitable. Plus you get raised off the best hand more with 1/3 pot.

In a configuration where we are showing pretty massive strength where we bet/call the turn and then donk a board pairing card (our hand looks like a set fearing the straight which has now boated up), we get raised off the best hand (either by the incredibly rare river bluff raise or by overvalued worse) pretty much never, imo.

GcluelessLLSNLnoobG