Do we ever turn our overpair into a bluff on a four-flush board?

Wow. That's seriously effed up. I may not have been able to exercise the restraint needed not to call him out on it.

Please don't take this as argument or defensiveness about my turn bet. Even in hindsight, I'm still torn about the correct action, and what size we should take if we bet.

I chose a small bet size because I thought his flopped flushes would feel compelled to raise for value and protection, but I could see an argument for betting larger, to charge any of his PP's with 1 diamond to see the river. I was fully planning on betting again on a river brick.

I think his original open is fine. His flat call of my 3B, not so much, when we're not starting out super-deep, and there's still another player in the hand left to act. I think my flop bet is small enough that he can call, but I think I'd have folded turn if I were him, with the reasoning that neither my pair nor my draw are very good. He's basically drawing to one clean out to the nuts.

My real concern is my own action when he checks again on the river, and what he does if I do find a third barrel. I won't often be bluffing there, nor will I have a worse hand for value. Alternatively, does he call if I bet again on a river brick?

If he was calling the whole way in the hopes that I'd either give up and check back on a brick river, or he was planning to check-call a third barrel on another diamond, I don't think that's very reasonable.

I'll frequently check back the turn with moderate SDV to bluff-catch the river, but generally I'm doing it when I don't need to be too concerned about opponents being on a draw and getting a free card. The thing I don't like about checking back the turn on monotone flops is that we're effectively announcing we don't have a flush.

The point of checking back the turn is to induce opponents to stab rivers when we have a hand that can call. Here, I'm not sure we want to induce our opponent to stab at it, when we'd likely be checking back if they check.

So, if we bet turn and they fold away some equity, that's fine. If they call and check to us on the river, that's also fine. If we check back turn and they bet river, we're supposed to call more often, and it kind of sucks if V is capable of recognizing that, and decides to size up with value rather than checking to us again.

turn sizing looks too small. is kind of clearly mapped around your hand vs range (solver seems to want around b40)

one misconception i think you have re this spot is river vb threshold. Kd / Qd look like clear bets and if u choose smaller turn size Jd even makes it in sometimes.

JJ too much sdv to bluff, even more so when u use mini turn size - he is supposed to peel wider vs this size. one place i think this sim diverges in real life is v is supposed to find some infrequent raises with pairs but i doubt people really do that.

i ran mp open vs co 3b because i think thats likely closer to actual ranges in play

some randomish numbers for you to consider:
solver thinks you have around 23% equity when he x's the river (you will win the pot ~1/4 of the time when you check)
solver thinks he has a flush 68% in the sim i ran.
vs jam from ip i see him folding around 60% of flushes to all in (more or less indifferent w J or lower, more or less pure calling Q or better). decent amount of ev loss jamming compared to just checking back with your hand ie you have too much sdv to bluff. around b33 is where we expect v to never fold a flush which i think mirrors reality. i think if you choose another tiny river size you are more likely to be called by a worse hand than to fold out better

So, the solver wants to bet turn for 40% pot, and if we do that, it's still checking back the river with our hand?

Does the solver have any hands that aren't flushes and still bet the river, either for value or as a bluff?

yes non flushes (think unpaired broadway hands) as a bluff. no the thinnest vb is either Jd or Qd depending how u size earlier streets (the wider his range is by the river the thinner u can vbet)

would really recommend just signing up for gtow and looking at some of these. will help you infinitely more than trying to verbally dissect hands on here

At a 3betty table I would consider flat/4betting. Otherwise, I like offering poor 8:1 IO so I would go a little larger with my 3bet.

I think I'm ok with flop/turn just protecting somewhat against overs / draw.

Pretty sure I'm just checking back the river. A lot of his hands did just get there. And what are we targeting; like QQ only? Maybe TTd?

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think QQ+ gets 4B pre at some frequency, when V is EP and there's a flat caller still to act. So, I'd discount the likelihood of him showing up with QQ.

This may be a gross over-simplification, but I'd think we could bucket his river range into strong flushes, weak flushes, and non-flushes. If we turned JJ into a bluff, it would be to fold out V's weak flushes.

FWIW, if V is sticky pre and post, I think he gets to the river with a lot of hands that might fold if we bet again, especially when we use smaller bet sizing on flop and turn. If he's getting to the river with 55, he'll have 44, 88, TT, some sets, some 2P, etc.

If we think he's calling any size bet with all his weak flushes, then there's no point in betting. If we think he might fold some, then maybe we could bet again.

I posted the hand because I think a bluff might actually get through at some frequency. Every hand that isn't a strong flush got severely downgraded when the fourth diamond rolls off, and I'd think a lot of low stakes opponents are likely to donk river with their strongest flushes, rather than risk us checking back.

So, when he checks river, he's either trapping to check-raise, planning to check-call, or praying we check back or bet small, rather than bet large and put him to the test.

Four-flush boards don't happen very often, but there are plenty of river scenarios where we have a hand that was probably best pre, yet has been downgraded post-flop, and are left to wonder what to do after an opponent calls our flop and turn bets.

I just don't see a heckuva lotta weak flushes from a tight player not getting OOL raise/calling from EP preflop. As I say, I can think of QQ and TTd, so we're targetting only a handful of combos... unless I'm ranging way too tightly preflop.

GcluelessrangingnoobG