Ok, I messed this one up preflop. And maybe misplayed it on the river as well. Now what?

I don't see any reason to flat call in the BB closing the action. Seems pretty bad.

Probably x/c this flop. Underplayed preflop and overplayed postflop.

3bet $85-$90 pre.

I don't know how I would get to the flop like this. But if I did, I would just check-called flop. Check-raisiing this flop texture with KK when Hero has a tight image = overplay.

Yeah flat pre makes life way tougher OOP. River overbet is polarized but from a solid reg it’s value heavy, block bet > check for sure.

You had 2nd nuts preflop. On the flop, I think you had 9th nuts. This reminds me of a beginner slow playing AA preflop and then gii on wet board when it was likely he was way behind.

Yeesh.

Yeah, definitely want to 3B pre. If you're going to trap by flatting, I think the most logical line would be to keep playing it trappy, as a bluff catcher, just check-calling flop and turn.

As played, I probably fold river and don't think about it too much. But if we need a good argument for it, we could look at the Kc in our hand as being bad, because it blocks some of his potential bluff combos.

You're basically repping 2P+ on flop and turn. Hard to think he's going to over-bet river with anything worse than top 2P. We could be going for a check raise with T9, maybe, but that seems pretty unlikely after we x/r flop and barrel turn.

I dunno, man. If V takes this line with QQ, TT, or 99, he deserves the pot.

When I see the OMCs show up with KK after flatting preflop they usually donk flop and go from there or check call down, to my surprise and dismay. These lines keep the pot size more manageable (of course, V could use overbets to counter that)

C/r flop is a power move and there isn't much left in villain's range by the river that you beat. Probably folding to the bet but not liking how we got there.

I'd fold now. It's an overbet, they rep plenty, you're overrepped, and you block nothing.

Seems like you're well aware of all the other mistakes made in the hand.

I dislike x/r flop a lot more than preflop call. Not just the action, on this board, but also the size. You fold out worse hands a lot, get called by better hands and hands with a bunch of equity and position.

As deuceblocker said, it's a play I mostly see from old guys who don't understand what they are doing and decide to slow play preflop and then decide they have to be good postflop.

River seems like an easy fold, without very good reads.

You say he's a reg. and aggressive but one of the more important things here is what you think he calls flop x/r with.

you've played the hand in reverse, called when you should've raised and raised when you should've called.

I haven't checked 300bb preflop 9 handed sims yet but i wouldn't be surprised where KK is a very low frequency flat here (1-5%) so the ev loss is minimal and not as terrible as what everybody says, although yeah of course the standard play is to 3bet.

that being said, the flop is terrible for your hand, not many good turns besides a K, bloating this pot oop is just suicide at this spr. I would've prefered a c/r with 98 or any hand with a 9 or T in it and backdoor fd equity.

River is more of a live read, in general your line shows strength, you could still be uncapped (trapping the Ace since it hits V quite a lot) and V still bets massive so im fine with folding here.

I'm wondering whether you get immediate flop folds from AA with the check-raise...if I had AA here I wouldn't be happy. But if you don't, you get called by QQ but probably nothing worse.

River check-fold is OK

Hard to see many bluffs on the river. Maybe QcTc, Qc9c, or 7c8c, but that's about it. I would raise KK preflop the vast majority of the time, but the real hanging offense was pairing the preflop flat with a flop c/r. On the relatively rare occasions when I flatted pre, I definitely would be check-calling the flop.

You shouldn't be flatting 4x a whole lot in general, but even if you're maximally polarizing KK is going to go in the value bucket 100% of the time unless they're opening <10%.

I don't hate flop x/r or turn continuation as much as everyone else, and size seems correct for both. Hard to say if I'd actually do it in game because I've probably literally never been in this spot in several million hands of play, but we get plenty of value (assuming they're not properly adjusting for tightness of the config), we unblock their bluff catchers, we deny a fair amount of equity.

The big mistakes for me are flatting pre and not blocking river.

I'm wondering, too, in light of this thread I posted, with a similar scenario, me having AA as the PFR and IP.

The early debate in that thread was about whether or not to fold AA as the PFR facing a x/r from an ABC/TAG on K97rb. Almost the same scenario here, when hero x/r's on J87rb, except that here, OP can credibly rep 2P+, and the x/r makes sense on this board.

Most low stakes players are going to have difficulty folding QQ-AA on this flop. But I'm not sure we actually want folds, do we? But for the ace on the river, I think OP would have been happy going bet-bet-bet if the run-out was brick-brick-brick.

It's just hard to find the worse-value range for V that is going to pay off three streets after bet-calling the flop x/r. Once V calls turn, he's saying he has better than AJ for value. So unless he has exactly QQ, there wouldn't seem to be much we can target for value, and we probably can't target anything on the river.

fwiw when i look at gtow research mode for 3x open in high rake. at 200bb this is pure 3b pre 6 handed and begins to get indifferent (mix flat) at 300. so would think esp 9 handed becomes indifferent at 200ish? they got a 9 handed solve with different parameters with a 2.5x open where i see it indifferent at 200 but leaning much more heavily towards raise and maybe its just not simmed down accurately enough.

i think flop x/r is pretty bad vs ep instinctively but will look at solver and try to decide. i would fold the river now and id expect block to never get called by a worse hand anyways

edit: k. im using 200bb ranges and just added a sliver (5%) of combos of kk to oop. oop pure x, if ip uses 50% sizing oop pure c/c and there is large ev loss in x/r line - 4.9bb for c/c vs 3.85 for x/r. again im not saying this is conclusive but i pretty sure this is a large error and going to lead to increasingly large errors unless you have very good reads on opponent. my guess would be vs later positions theres more leeway to do this as there are more hands to actually get value from / air in range so margin for error. i will look at that a bit later if i get time

edit 2: sorry this was wrong. it wants to use a more polar sizing (115% x/r vs the half pot sizing, if i change the raise sizing to this, the raise with kk ends up basically indifferent 4.9 vs 4.93). which i guess begs the question do we want to use the smaller x/r size at all as we should have fairly few thin value combos blah blah. and i dont know how to compare ev's of strategies in ai solver yet so we will potentially never know the answer to this

i see it strongly preferring x to ott if we x/r the flop (also it wants a bigger turn size which makes sense as you should have a polar range here) but at least the combos with a club dont have much ev loss ~.25bb into whats going to be a 50bb pot so idk.

if i force oop to bet the turn with kk and we get to the river, it will always x. theres very marginal ev loss with b10, but u lose around 3bb into a 70bb pot with b33, 8bb with potting, and 20bb by jamming.if you x and face b150 (a size he should never choose), u lose 7bb calling without a heart and 12bb with a heart.
fwiw his bluffs are supposed to come from qtcc, k9cc, and pure q9ss combos. unsure if people find those but the presence of the bdfd does lead to him getting to the river with some hands without sdv

mostly think the hand is an error of polarization along with not adjusting to stacks / positions, and even if you "trap" pre, you need to realize that your hand is worth significantly less on a static board

ok final add on. i looked at 200bb btn open vs bb defend and added a sliver of kk to the defending range. here the smaller x/r size is the preferred option and kk makes it in (i did not have to change the bet sizing here manually) which i guess confirms intuitions - theres more thin value to be had vs btn than ep 9 handed lol. also we play a less polar strategy in general i think because button will have 16 combos of straights.

i guess that begs the question from op of what our actual 4x defending range looks like (brought up by RA) and what do we do with that info strategy wise

if it x/r the flop vs button it will still x the turn but if i force it to bet, it will x/f the river here too (less of a mistake to call i believe because button has a weak range in general and q9o)

fyi even on a brick (2o) river, vs btn the only way i can get it to even mix with KK is to allow b10 (betting 1/10 of the pot). to me that implies you have overplayed your hand on earlier streets and funneled your opponent into too strong of a range for your hand stregnth. qq and jx are already indifferent / folding ott. when theres a straight (esp if they have offsuit combos) and many plausible sets / 2 pairs (also higher equity continue in general ie either straight draws / pair + sds or flush draws), v has to continue significantly less one pair without backup hands. this should be very obvious but people usually do the opposite and way overplay medium stregnth hands on dynamic / "scary" boards because ""protection""

dont worry submersible fans, back to sarcasm soon

final edit: can be talked into x/r flop vs btn and then c/c c/c being best line vs many because so so many gutters he can peel the flop w and then bluff later compared to ep

So my parenthetical assumption that they're not properly adjusting to the tightness of the config was probably too load baring of an assumption to tuck into a parenthetical aside.

I'll be honest I read something into reads that isn't there. Blame it on racial profiling; blame it on the fact OP seems to be considering bluff catching an overbet with 2nd pair; or blame it on the gorgeous muscles. Whatever it is, I didn't absorb that villain is a solid reg who could very well be positionally aware.

That said, even most solid 100nl FR regs aren't wholly adjusting to true UTG tightness, add in that 9 players are rarely actually dealt into a hand, quirks of live ranges even among the "solid" sub-populations, the fact that you don't have to protect your x/c range against huge bombs on blank runouts as much as you do against a bot, etc, and value can go a lot thinner and protection gets a lot fatter.

Not BTN vs BB fat, obviously. But I ran a custom sim for LJ vs BB (adding KK to the BB range), and PIO was indifferent between calling and raising (but only raising 10% of the time.

OTT it mostly continues.

OTR it's indifferent between check and B18. My reasons for block aren't theoretical though, it's just an OP way to get a cheap showdown against the population.

I'm not even defending OP necessarily because I'm confident they just raised to make up for lost value after the unconventional preflop flat, and again I doubt I'd go for it in game, but it just didn't strike me as a blunder.

As for preflop, I think you and I specifically have had some back and forth about these very deep stack BB 3bing strats, and IIRC GTOw starts to use very large sizes and hyper-polarize in ways you'd have to very specifically study to actually implement in game. We have to jump on a Zoom call sometime or something so I can see what you're seeing.

It's somewhat moot, because again, now that I realize villain might be positionally aware, their range width can start to approach where KK gets close to indifferent anyway. ... in theory, anyway, because population is massively underfolding this config. Like overcalling by 33% sized leaks, so flatting is still a blunder in practice as far as I'm concerned.

yeah i mean idc really about pre. my only real conclusion using the ruse based gtow stuff is that realistically the only hand that really matters evwise to 3b is aa vs the earlier positions. my guess is his pop will play too loose passive on the early streets vs the 3b while not adjusting to the stack depths, but op will always be dead regardless of node when lots of money goes in w this hand. maybe thats wrong though and im not sure how to approximate that read into any kind of strategy. think it is definitely ok to flat here pre from ev perspective even at equilibrium and its not like he can exploit ur preflop passivity super easily (would mostly just be by way overfolding / under 4betting to the 3b). feel reasonably confident can make up for whatever the ev difference is of pre via postflop play and i think its just much easier to make large mistakes by 3betting a very defined range oop into a tight range to begin with with lots of money behind and minimal reads

realistically though i think op was just afraid to get in 1300 pre in this config (which he should be) so flatted and over adjusted.

our sims look fairly similar. i dont think villains have to be super positionally aware to just be very tight in ep.

have decided to look now at 200 9handed ranges to see what if and things do change significantly. aisolver at least wants to use a very large (100%) donking size which makes sense - in these ranges, ep only has trace amounts of 77 / 88 / T9ss. if i remove that option ep is supposed to never cbet. i do understand people are not going to be that tight in practice and its purely theoretical but is worth looking at. nonetheless the advantage there comes from ep's lack of nut hands and should still be sort of clear KK is a medium stregnth hand on this board / these ranges

I come at it with a different perspective that there's the universe of hands that lose significant value by not 3betting, and when a bot raises first to act in a 9-handed game that universe is literally only AA--because they only have 10% of hands to begin with and will fold half of them to a 3b and if you flat they'll go off on blank runouts so you'll get plenty of value on dry runouts that are favorable for KK.

But if your opponent is actually opening 15% for all the reasons listed in my last post and they're actually only folding 1/3rd of their range to a 3b because no one actually folds 99 IP and very few people actually take the b/b/overbet line as PFR IP on a dry runout, then the EV of flatting vs 3bing are going to diverge significantly.

All of this is without addressing the 4bb open size lol.

It just feels like we have to abstract this pretty far from reality to make preflop close.

Which TBF feels a lot like the argument I'm making about the flop, where I'm making a bunch of abstractions from theory to make xr75, b75 close. But abstracting from theory to reality does seem like the right way to go at least directionally speaking.

Anyway, note to self to be more forward next time I ask someone to a poker Zoom date. It's fine, I didn't really want to anyway. I had a thing...

i prefer not to really engage off of 2p2 for nebulous privacy / anonymity reasons. maybe some point in the future

interestingly gtowizard has 4x ranges both for 0 rake and high rake at 8 handed 250bb. kk is a mix for both of them although they look about how u would expect. ~3% raise / 3% call for high rake and 2.5% raise / 7 call for no rake.

i have no real way to quantify or even guess how various population reads would impact the ev of earlier streets although im sure they do dramatically. i just mostly end up ignoring that and try to learn poker theory from what's in front of me in the outputs. im even open to 3betting pre being the best play in most games, i just think its ok to flat. i believe vs decent regs+ (probably we have a stricter criteria for this than most of the forum) and people better than you, its going to be potentially difficult to play a range of ~2.5-3% of hands well oop, even more so in an environment where u cant really rng effectively (alot of the "bluff" 3bs are like ~5% frequency for board coverage)

its a huge pain in the ass to even figure out which sim is based in reality because its an odd pre spot with ranges people don't / won't study. also its probably people who aren't great and dont necessarily have defined strategies anyways. but like a huge part of how this hand is supposed to play post flop is based on who has 77 / 88 / JJ / t9ss / the weaker 2 pairs to a lesser extent and those frequencies are dramatically different depending which sim u look at. if i had to actually pick one, i would agree with you that people look at the 6 handed gto solve for 100bb (maybeeeeee they look at 200bb but im not even sure that happens) and just execute that. though id imagine anyone reasonably interested in winning enough to look up pre sims is probably pure folding things like JTo ep unless tilted

i think the most consistent takeaway we're going to find, regardless of what pre sim you use, is you end up overplaying KK by going x/r 4x, b75 here postflop. think b75 range ott in general doesn't make a ton of sense given stacks / ranges. also the way OP talks about the hand makes me think he got 99 windmilled in his face or something lol

Whatever you did with a solver, it is a really easy 3! in a live low-mid stakes game. Raiser has a fairly wide range and is rarely folding.

can you try to quantify either of these?

No. You need to reraise with premium hands against real players live who don't like to fold.