Dealing with the emotions of sports betting
I have been modeling and betting sports for a while now but I wanted to talk about the psychology behind it. I try not to watch games but I do have a tendency to peak and will watch the occasional game. I find myself stressing during the day to see how my model did. I know some sharps don't watch games and some do, so I would like to know how you guys deal with the ups and downs of this endeavor.
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I have been modeling and betting sports for a while now but I wanted to talk about the psychology behind it. I try not to watch games but I do have a tendency to peak and will watch the occasional game. I find myself stressing during the day to see how my model did. I know some sharps don't watch games and some do, so I would like to know how you guys deal with the ups and down
Its important to watch the games so you can look for emergent properties and potential phenomena.
The data is only a representation of the actions are going on in the game and so as you see new things as you see players coming in and out or possibly even getting injured this is all information.
Not only do I watch the game but afterwards I figure out what I did wrong and try to incorporate or find the information out about where the mistake was made.
I take that very seriously and I don’t know a single person I think is a massively successful (without hedge/arbs) out there is not watching and keeping up with what’s going on in the games.
Its important to watch the games so you can look for emergent properties and potential phenomena.The data is only a representation of the actions are going on in the game and so as you see new things as you see players coming in and out or possibly even getting injured this is all information.Not only do I watch the game but afterwards I figure out what I did wrong and try to i
Virtually everyone I knew who was/is successful in the space never watched the events. It is literally impossible to watch every single event.
Totally get where you’re coming from - betting can be an emotional rollercoaster for sure. I found it helps to have good info and tools backing your decisions so you feel more confident and less stressed. If you’re looking for solid tips and reliable betting sites that can make the whole process smoother, check out
. It’s been a handy resource for me to stay grounded and focused.
Totally get where you’re coming from - betting can be an emotional rollercoaster for sure. I found it helps to have good info and tools backing your decisions so you feel more confident and less stressed. If you’re looking for solid tips and reliable betting sites that can make the whole process smoother, check out
. It’s been a handy reCan u stay on ducking topic and not use this emotional moment out your website so gross
I mean, yeah, it would be nice to just turn a knob every morning, but looking at the games is how you find a margin properties that are not in the data and then tweak the data to recognize them. That is just my humble opinion.
I also think you are gawd product and its cool you show up to this post.
Watching games is useful for macro factors but for me personally, individual player attributes. The edges are so small in this that one guy can make or break you, or the other team for that matter. One of the most useful things for me is to watch a position group, especially the linebackers which is the key glue piece to any great defense. The lines too of course.
That said it is way easier for my mental health to just find out later on, with some postgame reading and analysis to help process future plays on those teams. I think you'd be more successful stripping the emotion away from watching in real time and keeping an objective viewpoint on why you did what you did after the fact.
I mean, yeah, it would be nice to just turn a knob every morning, but looking at the games is how you find a margin properties that are not in the data and then tweak the data to recognize them. That is just my humble opinion.
I also think you are gawd product and its cool you show up to this post.
Thanks for the kind words.
So what you're doing is a sort of crude data mining, where you're looking for things that may not be well understood or surfaced currently, and then checking the data for that. I suppose this angle can work, but let me give an example.
I basically developed the last MLB TT model that basically drove the lines to market pricing (no clue how new runner on 2nd stuff affects anything or whether strategy meaningfully has changed, so maybe it isn't like my model anymore) universally. One of the things I discovered is that weak offensive teams (Late 10s Braves) versus strong starters (Peak Kershaw) were actually absurdly high. Like 10-20% edge when opened. Last MLB game I watched was probably the Rays WS against the Phillies. It is a pretty simple math problem to understand that the greater probability of an out, the lower probability of a run, and as SLG goes down the chance of multiple runs goes down with it. Considering this matchup has the Braves offense averaging the performance of a pretty good backup catcher at the plate, welp. I have no idea how linesman came up with these numbers or why I was the first one into this space. (Prob because I used a quasi-geometric MC simulation instead of a modified Poisson.) But regardless, this is something that sitting down doing math problems can help with instead of watching sporting events.
If you have a substantial level of expertise in a subject, then obviously watching games (presuming you have reasonably useful tape) can be a highly effective tool. But clicking on the latest NFL game to get insights on how to beat the spread just isn't a viable tool to anyone I've ever met.
This site provides useful sports analysis.
This site provides useful sports analysis.
