$11 Mystery Bounty ITM, 88 facing two all-ins
We are just in the money, mystery bounties are active. The highest is around $1,200 and I think the average around $10. There is a similar prize pool for the tourney itself.
I found this spot tricky. If I call and win I scoop two bounties and triple up. Lose and I'm soon out. I would snap-call TT and call 99, but made an agonizing fold with 88. Should I have called?
PokerStars - 1400/2800 Ante 320 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 15.39 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BTN: 10.7 BB (VPIP: 3.45, PFR: 3.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
Hero (SB): 15.93 BB
BB: 18.14 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 30)
UTG: 8.23 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 14.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 50)
UTG+1: 16.01 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 30)
MP: 8.86 BB (VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 30)
MP+1: 35.13 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
8 players post ante of 0.11 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.41 BB) Hero has 8♠ 8♥
fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 15.27 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 10.59 BB and is all-in, fold, fold
10 Replies
Mistery bounty shouldn’t be taken into consideration here imo, only the fixed ones. If it is, you can justify calling 22 here. I hate GG, it turns even old aware players into casino greed mode. Best scenario here is one underpair from CO and two over cards from the caller. Worst is two over cards from CO and and overpair from the caller. Second worse is 3-4 overcards. I’d try Only in the rebuy period (I just saw the PS brand, I hate the current status quo then.)
Yesterday i snap called 77 from bb for 10BB to a BTN 10BB shove. It was the FT bubble. He had 88 and this was just one guy.
https://twoplustwo.com/No-Limit-Tournaments/13nl0/77-pre-with-25bb
Mystery Bounties absolutely should be taken into consideration here. I don't know why you'd think they shouldn't.
If the biggest ones are still out there, probably it's a call. It sucks because it's a high-variance spot and you're going to lose a lot, but the times you win, you win two bounties right away and have a substantial stack to gamble for more bounties.
There's always the possibility of beating the initial raiser and staying alive as well.
I agree we have to take the bounties into account. I feel theoretically we ought to be evaluating based on winning the average (mean) of all the bounties. I folded at the time but yes, I agree it may well be a call.
I'd appreciate it if we kept criticism of different poker sites out of the thread and concentrate on the hand, thanks.
Ok but why should we consider something when we can’t assess its probability. Is this still poker?
Ok but why should we consider something when we can’t assess its probability. Is this still poker?
You can assess the average bounty if you know which bounties are left (and online this information is usually available).
A lot of the tournament's equity is in the bounties, so if you're not considering them, you're just not playing the format correctly.
Yes, I agree we need to think of the bounties, and the average not the biggest one. It is definitely worth factoring in that some players may be super wide due to the value of the highest bounty.
In this hand I would expect the second player in to be very tight as he is not covering the initial raiser (it was a great surprise when he turned over 66), but if he had been the larger stack I would have been suspicious that he was hunting the top prize.
Ok but why should we consider something when we can't assess its probability. Is this still poker
That's the whole point.
