How to get value from top two pair on the river OOP?
$5/$5 8-handed. Effective stacks $1500.
Reads: LP Villain is 30's Hispanic, is very loose preflop and has raised huge with weak hands. Post-flop, he has been less aggressive, but seems vulnerable to making bad calls. Hero has tight-solid image, maybe nitty, though I have picked off a couple river bluffs in the 1.5 hrs of play.
LJ limps $5.
V in HJ raises $15.
H in SB with AcKc raises to $65
MP folds,
V calls.
($135) Flop: Kd 8c 2s
H bets $65.
V calls.
($265) Turn: Ah
H checks. I checked the turn thinking I didn't want to fold out his weak hands, and hoping he would stab at it.
V pauses for 5-8 sec, looks like he might bet, but then thinks better of it and checks.
($260) River: Qc
H???
I was thinking maybe I should bet to target a King? If so, how much? Or should I check to let him try to bluff any pocket pairs he might be holding? Is he betting a King if I check to him?
8 Replies
Post-flop, he has been less aggressive, but seems vulnerable to making bad calls
Seems like your river decision should be pretty easy.
Bet turn, this card favors your range.
V isn't betting this turn card unless he has a monster or is crazy aggro.
V range is capped, probably can't stand heat with any kx or lower. So might as well bet big as in overbet on river.
He does have some KQ, Ax that can call like a 350-400 bet.
Grunch from title alone: Bet and hope he has something to make a crying call with.
Post grunch edit: based on this "Post-flop, he has been less aggressive, but seems vulnerable to making bad calls," bet turn. AP, bet hlaf pot OTR and hope for the best.
Spoiler
I bet $180 on river and he quickly folded. I think a check on the river to induce a bluff may have been better. Probably a lot of pocket pairs in his range that he might bluff with.
Spoiler
I bet $180 on river and he quickly folded. I think a check on the river to induce a bluff may have been better. Probably a lot of pocket pairs in his range that he might bluff with.
Pre: Cool. Could go 5x here though.
Flop: Super dry board. I’d bet small, around $45.
Turn: Clear big bet. We’re targeting his Ax now, and it’s also a plausible bluff card. I’d bet close to pot, around $250ish.
River: All-in. We are targeting AQ,KQ, and hero calls. Betting small and checking lets him off the hook.
I feel that relying so much on villain to start bluffing is a leak. Exploit the fact that people are curious, especially when you hold very strong hands. The way I think about it: what would you do if you had T9s and decided you absolutely had to win this pot? You’d likely bet big on the turn and the river.
Grunch:
RE, your table image / history - my gut reaction to reading that you've got a nitty image and also picked off some river bluffs is that is somewhat to be expected, inasmuch as nitty players tend to get to the river with a stronger range that can bluff catch more versus looser players who'll have to bluff with more of their range.
PRE - if our read is that V is loose, raise bigger. We could probably go $75 here regardless, but I could see making it $90 when the stacks are deeper.
FLOP - I could see checking or c-betting smaller, but I like the larger c-bet here, HU vs a V who is likely to be calling too wide pre, but may not stab too wide on the flop.
TURN - I think we should barrel here, but not too large. Maybe make it around 1/3 to 40% pot. We can still get value from his worse AX that floated the flop wide, some of his KX, and any draws that managed to get here and pick up equity. Maybe occasionally he gets sticky and continues with some PP hoping to make a set.
RIVER - Since we checked turn, another check may get him to stab at this. Hard to think a value bet gets called by worse when he checks back the turn. Maybe he'd call a bet with KQ, but I'd think KQ would bet the turn, at least some of the time.
Alternatively, if we bet big, he may level himself into thinking we're bluffing, trying to rep JT, and bluff catch. It's just really hard to find a hand that checks back the turn but now wants to call a big river bet on this run-out, where we're going to have AQ and QQ in our range.
Bet turn small.
AP, bet river big.
Find the guy who stole $5 from the pot between the turn and river and demand justice.
Spoiler
I bet $180 on river and he quickly folded. I think a check on the river to induce a bluff may have been better. Probably a lot of pocket pairs in his range that he might bluff with.
Post grunch I feel like I need to clarify that by big, I don't mean like B66, but like $500. Who cares about milking 99 or whatever. There's a lot of worse two pair out there and people will occasionally hero an ace. I'll take my chances against the 3 combos of QQ.
