3bp SB vs HJ. AKo
Does AK have too much SDV to bet on the turn? Maybe i should be barreling hands like KTs/A5s/A4s instead? in my SB 3bet range vs MP those are really the only lower SDV hands i have here.
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO (104BBs) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 38.8% | Flop Agg: 46.4% | Turn Agg: 38% | River Agg: 31.4% | 3Bet: 8.8% | Fold to 3Bet: 55% | 4Bet: 10.7% | Hands: 89211]
BB (196.6BBs) [VPIP: 34.8% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 8.3% | Hands: 24]
HJ (103.2BBs) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 7]
CO (97.5BBs) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 28]
BTN (100BBs) [VPIP: 32% | PFR: 28% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 27]
Dealt to Hero: Kc Ah
HJ Raises To 3BBs, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To 12BBs, BB Folds, HJ Calls 9BBs
Hero SPR on Flop: [3.65 effective]
Flop (25BBs): 7c Js Jh
HERO Bets 7.9BBs (Rem. Stack: 84.1BBs), HJ Calls 7.9BBs (Rem. Stack: 83.3BBs)
Turn (40.8BBs): 7c Js Jh Qs
HERO Bets 19.4BBs (Rem. Stack: 64.7BBs), HJ Calls 19.4BBs (Rem. Stack: 63.9BBs)
River (79.6BBs): 7c Js Jh Qs 6c
HERO Checks, HJ Bets 63.9BBs (allin), HERO Folds
5 Replies
AKo on that turn? I’d just check, too thin to barrel hard vs HJ. Let him make the mistakes, lower SDV hands are the only ones worth pushing there.
Just ran this in GTOW and you actually played it fine. It appears that OTT villain has so many hands that need to fold when pressure is applied that it outweighs our showdown value with AK. For this same reason showdown value when we check is actually worst because lots of pocket pairs stay in villains range. There is maybe also some merit to the idea that betting here helps us realize our own equity better than checking and facing a bet, but I'm unsure how important that is. Solver actually prefers 1/3 pot OTT most of the time with occasional 1/2 pot, which I think is reflective of the fact that the class of hands that we are trying to fold out (low pocket pairs, 7's, gutters, high cards with BDFD's on flop) all have to fold to pretty much any bet. I would say this turn is one that can be exploitatively over checked when we are behind and overbet when we are ahead if Villain exhibits a tendency to overcall with low to middling pairs on all three streets and overfold overs and gutters on flop. On river AK is check folding 54% of the time. The weird thing is your exact combo is betting river at one of the highest frequencies (60%) and I have no idea why haha. I think it's because we don't hold a spade which means villain has more Ax and Kx of spades that call turn and brick river and have to fold to a river bet.
Just ran this in GTOW and you actually played it fine. It appears that OTT villain has so many hands that need to fold when pressure is applied that it outweighs our showdown value with AK. For this same reason showdown value when we check is actually worst because lots of pocket pairs stay in villains range. There is maybe also some merit to the idea that betting here helps us
I ran it too and was surprised by how often AK no spade was jamming river. It seemed to play aggressively across all 3 streets with all combos except holding a heart and a spade which can't block KJs, Ajs
I ran it too and was surprised by how often AK no spade was jamming river. It seemed to play aggressively across all 3 streets with all combos except holding a heart and a spade which can't block KJs, Ajs
It was almost like OTT when we don't block the spade draw we're inflating the pot to value bluff river. I was literally laughing looking at the results
AKo feels like the nuts till he nukes river.. then it’s just pain fold i think.
