facing massive overbet SB vs BB

Interesting hand. I often find myself in these spots and don't know what to do either. In our total range here we never have straights, trips, or boats (other than maybe aces full) because they all bet the flop (or at least bet the flop at a very high frequency). We probably don't have flushes very often either because we check raise the turn with them. From his perspective we have either aces up or a busted straight/flush draw like KQ with a spade. So I think he can range us pretty accurately which sucks for us. The two things that lean me towards a crying call are:
1. If we don't call with this hand what better hands do we have to call with? AK? But IMO AQ is equivalent to holding AK here because our opp 3 bets AK preflop therefore we have the best aces up on the board right now.
2. He still holds his entire bb preflop calling range here, which makes it very easy for him to be overbluffing, especially when he knows how weak our hand looks.

So I essentially think we are forced to call here unless we have good data on our opponent to know that he is only doing this with very nutted hands.

Yeah this is a horrible spot, but I think we're closing our eyes and clicking the call button. Like you, I just don't believe it

Firstly, the facts:
- Villain is a fish;
- They don't have a full stack
- You mention they're a 40+ VPiP over a small sample, but I think this is enough to at least allow us to profile them as loose/aggro
- Villain carries their whole preflop range with them to the river

So this range is super wide - by reg standards this would be wide, but for this player it seems like a chasm. If we bet either the flop or turn and they called then this would be a more trivial fold, but I really wouldn't be surprised if this is either complete air or something like a {9} or maybe even {7}.

...I may be making this player type out to be more loosey-goosey, or at least aggressive, than they are in reality; there will be times when we run in to the {J} and they call *us* a fish in the chat (imagine!)

Next, the conjectures:
- If they have a {J}, are they stabbing this on the flop?
- If they have a {J}, are they going for the bet on the turn when an {A} hits?
- When they see a final {J}, are they acting like a cornered animal?

Even fish are able to somewhat infer what a range could look like, and your double check line telegraphs to them that you don't have {Ax, Jx}.

However, likewise, can we deduce that BB doesn't have the {J} either? I say this because I feel that players in this configuration are wayyyyyy too stab-happy, especially on wetter boards that look a bit scarier for SB, and especially when they're on the loose side

We can certainly say that the possibility of them having a {J} is less likely than if they were to bet the flop

So the flop goes check-check and then an A comes on the turn, which is great for us. I like the check and I am a big believer of the "give them the rope so they can hang themselves" approach in this configuration

..which is exactly what I think is happening here

Earlier above I questioned if they're going to be betting a {J} here, and I think I'm begging the question a little, as I also said that I wouldn't be surprised if they show up with third or fourth pair

But the action sequence does make me think these lower pairs are more likely than the rivered trips as, again, I think the {J} is stabbing at a higher frequency on the flop, while your check (esp. on a card like {A}) gives the green light to their {9x, 7x} that they're ahead

Then the final conjecture: when they see the J, what is their response?

Well we've already said that the fish reasons you don't have a {J}, so even if they don't have it, what does it matter? Neither do you!

So this could be "cornered animal syndrome", where they're just spewing because they see it as the only way to win the pot and have something like 84o

If this [I]was{/I] trips, or T8 that gets there, I think (weirdly) we'd be seeing something closer to a pot-sized bet, not a full shove for >5x the pot

We need 46% equity, and honestly? I think we have it.

Thanks for the answers !, in game I chickened out and made the fold.

Will and Ferret are the GOATs for us Micro players IMO - Ferret is a legit hero for how much time/effort he puts into his replies!

Quick question though; is there something I'm missing here that has no one mentioning the flush on the turn? Everything being said about the J or 9X, 7X makes sense to me but this whole line seems really consistent with how I've seen fishy players handle turning a flush or two-pair with like A9/A7.

Either they turned a hand they really want to get paid off with or they have air and are bluffing at the Ace - most of the fishy micro players won't do the overbet shove on river with their air but CONSTANTLY do it with their stronger hands (because sadly, it does work a fair bit and people will call, regardless of bet size, with pretty weak holdings) - with air they will also overbet bluff river but it's typically not a full on shove as they want it to seem more "believable" while still producing a large amount most would be too afraid to call with mediocre holdings.

That said, what I've seen is from 5NL 6 Max Regular and this is 10NL 6 Max Fast, where it may change up a whole lot and make the above irrelevant. Either way, very curious why the flush isn't being discussed more. Also, before hitting Post, I just double checked to make sure there was a flush on the turn and I wasn't making a fool of myself and noticed the potential for a flopped straight with 10x8x that I also feel this line applies to for a fishy micro player. o.O

Yoooo thanks for the kind words, Zen! Am new around here, so appreciate it (:

Yeah I'll be honest, the flush escaped me and I was focusing a lot more on other aspects. It certainly gives more value to their range than I was originally prescribing.

Having said that, surely the only flush they could have would be the K-high (we have {Qc})? but I don't see why they'd be shoving [TcXc] (as the {Jc} already out). Even by loose-fish standards this is wild.

[K9ss, T8ss] are the most likely candidates I imagine.

On the turn, they have a fair few flushes; I agree. It's probably a nice line actually betting into PFR when the {Ac} comes on the turn and you've got {9s, 8,s Ts}. So this really muddies the water because they're reading Hero has {Ax} and can apply pressure.

So, sure, if they have the K high then they're going to look for value, and likewise if they have a lower flush. In the case of the former, I'd be more expecting b100, while anything lower may be going b50-75 (just a hunch and pretending I know how fish value bet).. Some thoughts:

- Fish don't generally (another assumption, based on my time as a "fish") have an overbet button and are more likely to b100 for value than overbet
- Does this mean their default overbet is therefore all in, As they don't have b150 or b200 buttons that are quick & easy to click? (And who has time to calculate bet percentages when you've got a juicy nutflush to value bet?)
- It could be a K high flush, but I don't think it's anything lower
- If they have a K high flush, they also have a lot of off-suit [KcXo]. I don't know how well versed spewy players are in blockers.. but maybe? It gives credit to the shove all in (cornered animal theory as above)

I might be trying to artificially deflate their value region to back up my earlier analysis. Pot or overbet by these players is bad news unless we have a sterling value beater, but a huge shove all in still seems, pardon the pun, fishy to me.

Three conclusions based on as played action:
- It's total air (as per above) -- call
- It's a K high flush -- fold
- It's a lower flush (tho I don't buy it) -- fold

So the decision to call ultimately falls on whether they have more air than they do flushes.. I'll give them the nut flush, but I don't trust it if it's any of the three other flushes I mentioned above. The board pairing does make the K high a bit less believable, but how far are fish reading the board and not just going for absolute hand strength?

Flush complicates things, but I think I'm still begrudgingly calling I reckon. Nice catch!

PS - I'll admit I don't have much of a population read in this spot, so if your view that a shove all in is usually value, I'm happy to trust it. But based on my own reasoning I think it's bull--