Got cute with T9s

The thing is he probably not folding 2p+.
If he has like q9, qk, jk, tk, j9, t9 type hands they might not fold as well.

I don't think you have much fold equity.

I probably just flat pre.
Not sure how to play bloated pot oop with marginal hands. I usually try to have monsters here.
Probably bet small or check/call flop then this turn I'd be clueless. lol

PF sizing is way too small. You're OOP and there's 30$ in the middle already. Go 70$ at least.

I would fold on the Turn. It's a horrendously bad board for us. Everything has hit, every decent hand now has pair+draw, 2pair, what have you. You do not have the odds to continue (only 3 good outs). The bluff failed, now let it go ♪

But preflop sizing mistake is pretty big imo because you want to pick up the pot without a fight whenever possible if you're semi-bluffing as a squeeze. It's just not likely to happen if you only go 5x. Even if V folds, one of the other two players probably call because now they're getting a price.

Also shouldn't you hide your action? IIuc you shouldn't tell us what you did on the Turn.

Bigger preflop. You could also call the straddle. You hit top pair. Cbet the flop.

On the turn, we have a pair an OESD. Folding would be insane. Why do you think villain has 2 pair? Villain could have missed this completely. As played, turn seems really well played.

I do no understand the constant advice to bigger preflop. When villain straddles to 10 and there's $340 behind, he makes the game 34bb deep.

Does anyone here raise 5bb with 30+bb stacks in a tournament? The size is too big, not too small!

As for the hand, it's an overbluff with no good blockers. It might have worked here and it might work exploitatively vs people who overstab turns, but vs better players it's probably lighting money on fire.

Turn is not really a bluff. You are often ahead on the turn.

At a $340 effective stack and a $10 straddle, we're playing an extremely short 34 bbs. Popping it with T high preflop OOP seems like setting money on fire to me, especially at a table with little FE. ~Closing the action and getting a discount with no doubt a bunch of morans in the hand, I'd be fine just seeing a flop. We do not have to press things in a very soft game, we can just wait for the game to come to us, imo.

Setting up an SPR of lol 2.5 is terrible with this hand, imo, but here we are. I probably throw out a small bet as we could easily be good and our hand is vulnerable.

I mean, have I just read the OP wrong? We have ~zero FE when this guy at this table bets this turn card, right? We're getting 3:1 with an OESD (although low IO on a 4-to-a-straight OOP) plus might have other outs, so I guess a flat might be ~okish (ETA: primrose's reasoning for folding the turn is fine and is probably better).

GgohomeBanana,you'redrunkG

Well the raise a bluff, and its profitability depends on getting people to fold. ImE you can get people to fold (but MB that's different in this game, and if it is, you shouldn't do it) but not if you raise to 50$. The extra 20$ here buys you so much more fold equity. I would agree that raising 50$ or less is worse than just calling, probably even worse than folding.

The idea here is that we win the Pot without a fight about half the time, and then we have decent though <50% equity when we get called. This board is a particularly bad one, but something like, idk, 422 or K62r lets you win with the first cbet pretty often. (And then there's the occasional board where we actually flop something strong.)

Preflop has been discussed at length. I prefer to flat call oop closing the action. I would just add that UTG V can be pretty wide calling our raise, but not as wide with limpers left to act who could squeeze. I think he's calling here with premium hands knowing he will be in position postflop to H.

Flop: I prefer to cbet blocking V's JT and TT here. We are vulnerable to all kinds of draws and we can rep AA/KK credibly.

Turn: V has hardly any bets here that aren't absolute premium hands. WTF does he bet 50 with here? H has way more AK here but V has some too.

Now it's possible he is still drawing (FD) or has combo draws KQ/KJ/J9. But he has absolutely turned some equity.

Before attempting this move, I would need a lot of hours with this V and know he has a fold button and can get out of line occasionally. I would also want a blocker to his AK.

We appear to have a weak read. I'm folding and waiting for a better spot.

?????? We have 3rd pair. I think the turn shove is spew.

Guys he straddle called 50 pre with AK??? He's ripping AK pre all day. He has AQo here MAXIMUM and tons of trash QX JX thats stabbing because it checked to him twice... I dont see any brick walls. QJo maybe that didnt bet flop somehow?

What Jx/Qx that calls 50$ that doesn't connect with this board

You already wrote zero 3 betting in your OP. Either that was not true or you have no reason to believe he can't have AK as he would have 3 bet it. Hard to analyze when you now claim we cant trust your OP.

id just call the straddle, not sure why we're raising OOP

with the 89 and JT blocker i think your play works enough, i doubt one pair can call you

Thats true I did say there was no 3!ing pre...

dango he has J9o here

Result:

Wtf

You probably gii 25-30% to win. Question is how often he bet/folds on that board. Not sure he is stabbing with a lot of weak Js and Qs. Unless he limp/called with junk, most Qs and Js make 2-pair or pair and straight draw. He might also try to get to showdown and check back Q6s or something like that. He could have been stabbing with air there though when you check twice. When you check twice and shove, it sort of looks like what you have.

I'm kinda curious what you now think about the hand in retrospect @OP

I watched a video on YT about a concept I hadn't seen explored before - "getting out of the hole" so to speak.
Basically the video talks about, once we've made a mistake early in the hand, making the optimal decision at every subsequent point in the hand can make for some interesting lines and requires being somewhat dialed in. Often "just fold" and "don't send good money after bad" is the best advice but sometimes turning your hand into a bluff or bluffcatching light is on the table. I think this hand kind of exemplifies that.

Maybe the x/r OTT isn't great given a dynamic card comes and V bets out, but if it was a blank and he bets out I think a x/r is great as JX should be betting flop IP at high frequency. Maybe a dynamic card like Q-K-A-or-9 is better as a donk?

That's your takeaway?

My takeaway would be we likely got in as a decent dog with no little to no FE but the river saved our ass.

GcorrectingallmyearliermistakesbysimplyriveringmyopponentG

Yeah, I don't think that's the right takeaway :(

I think the most important takeaway is to bet bigger preflop when you make this move, and the second most important is to recognize why this kind of board means you don't have a lot of fold equity, even before the turn bet but especially after.

I hate all broadways for bluffing. Best would be a blank, but even then I don't think the check-raise is that good. There are so many better spots to run big bluffs in live poker imo.

Yeah I don’t mind the squeeze pre, especially with how loose the table sounds. But once you check flop and let V stab turn on that board, jamming feels a bit spewy since you’re crushed by so many better hands. Probably just peel turn and see river.

Yeah, I think you have to call the turn. It is kind of ugly, as you could get bluffed off your pair on the river.

It's not really a squeeze. It is raising limpers in a straddle pot. Preflop seems OK to me, as it is a decent hand against limpers, and it is good to have your hand misrepresented.

The shove does get all the money in if we hit. It also gets him to fold if we are ahead, so we don't get bluffed or drawn out on. Difficult situation on the turn, but flat calling is probably best.