Fools rush in, but only a nit would fold J-10s, right?

fold pre

ask yourself if someone pointed a gun to your head and said "make AK fold" on this flop, how much would you bet? Probably like $150 or something right? So size down and x/r to $75. When he calls the turn should be about $170. Ask the same question. You'd have to bet like $300, so size down and make it maybe $200. As long as you get a clean river ship it in.

Fold turn assuming your confident in your read that he's a savvy tag. What bluffs does he have?

Probably a fold pre vs a solid TAG and with rake considerations.

Raise flop for a real amount if you're going to raise.

Isn't this line ensuring you only get called by better and fold out worse?

I guess I'd have a hard time imagining a savvy TAG putting in 600 BB with 1 pair on that board where you have very little conceivable bluffs.

Preflop is probably a fold. Flop x/r sizing is way too small. Raising small like that is generally a donk play. I would just flat call the flop. You are way behind KQ/AA/JJ/TT/AJ/AT, which is a reasonable part of his UTG range.

Turn sizing is too small. Definitely not 3-betting the turn.

Maybe call me a nit, I'm not check/raising this flop with bottom two.

We lose to too many hands to be value raising here. We only beat Ax. Which might or might not call a check/raise.

Turn fold. I mean I guess we can call once then evaluate river. The thing is even if you hit T or J on river you might be behind and lose your whole stack.

We repped a strong hand on flop, we continued barreling on turn and now we face a raise. His minimum raising range has to be sets/st8s.
If he's fishy he's raising with 2pairs even then it beats our hand.

We beat nothing besides a bluff on turn, snap fold as played.

Don’t check raise flop that is a punt.

So what do you think his range is? You honestly think he just calls a minraise with AJ or KQ?

I feel like "fold pre" used to be a joke/meme on this forum and now it's become earnest. It's OK to 3! this hand sometimes. I know the rake is brutal at these stakes but we are deep and... are you just here to watch sports and get free beer? Even if this is somehow like a - 12 cent call ev wise, there is something to be said for having fun, gaining experience and giving action.

CR is a bit of an overplay on the flop as not only are we beat fairly often, but also we might win the minimum from hands like axs and bluffs. There are also going to be a lot of dicy turns and rivers and almost any card could give him aces up if he calls our CR with an A. This is a great board for him to blast off on, even trying to get us to fold a weak ace. So just let him bluff, value bet worse, and lose the minimum when you get coolered.

I would interpret the mutter raise as extremely strong. However, I'm just not folding 2 per yet.

I'm normally the biggest fold pre advocate but I call here unless I think my opponent is just better than me.

Flop I flat. 100bb deep sure lets raise.

You suggested a line to set up playing for stacks 600 BBs deep I'm just wondering how that makes sense vs a savvy TAG. Against a massive whale calling station who's never folding top pair in his life I could get on board, but vs even just an average reg I don't see it.

I think he can definitely just call a min raise with KQ in particular and wait for the turn to raise.

I'm not much of a proponent of 3 betting a good hand on the flop when you are in position. Need to give people some room to bluff.

If it was me I'm probably not 3 betting anything here and calling with my entire range besides pocket pairs below a ten.

But might make some exceptions vs call heavy recs worried that turn could be a scare card for their two pair hands (so might 3 bet KQ)

So, on this kind of board, we should expect to see every combo of big hand preflop or on the flop.

So that means 12 combos of AK and 12 of AQ, for 24 combos of 1 pair that we can extract value from.

It also means 6 combos of AJ, 6 of AT, 1 each of JJ/TT, 3 of AA, and 16 of KQ. That is a total of 33 combos that beat us.

So if we play our hand really hard here, we are going to isolate a range that we are behind.

For that reason, I would not raise the flop.

Why would you call? Villain opened 5BB, so we need to realize 38% equity, out of position, against a strong-ish player, super deep stacked, being behind his range. Why would that ever work out?

I'm calling almost nothing if people RFI to 5BB. I either 3bet this or fold it.

If Villain opened to 2.5BB, then yeah call all day.

Grunch:

FLOP - think I might just donk out for 1/2 pot, rather than let V possibly check back.

As played, when he bets $15 into $20, I'd be torn between flatting and raising, but at these stack depths, it seems like a raise is in order. I don't understand why we'd min-click it though, rather than going bigger, like 5x-8x.

TURN - I don't understand the $30 bet into $80. I'd have potted it, with a plan to fold if V raised. We're plenty deep enough.

Our "same bet" sizing here is likely to induce some raises from worse value, as well as some bluffs. I don't think we can fold, and I wouldn't raise, so I guess we just call. But I'm not sure what our plan is for brick rivers. I guess check-evaluate, with a plan to fold if he bombs it.

The reads here become pretty important. Do we think he's capable of turning KK or QQ into a bluff, because he double blocks KQ? Would he ever over-play AK or AQ this way? Even though he'd have us beat, would he over-play AJ or AT this way? Does he think we'd always 3B pre with JJ and TT?

If your read is that he's a standard TAG, it seems less likely that he's turning KK/QQ into a bluff, or over-playing any AX combo.

He's laying us 3:1 on a call, with huge implied odds to boat up. I think I'd call and pray the river is another J or T, and probably go for a slight over-bet donk. Otherwise I just shut it down and hope he checks back AK/AQ on a brick.

This is pretty much the solver's line, which at x5 and deep is to fold 2/3 of the time, raise about 1/4 of time, and very rarely call.

Solver is kind of irrelevant, as it assume a 5x is really strong.

Preflop, folding is probably best, as OOP and probably behind UTG's range. I don't have a problem with the call or a 3! though.

5x is a big raise in your games? In mine, it's standard to smallish. My default raise is $13, more if I have limpers.

I'm definitely calling and/or 3-betting JTs, but I'm not getting married to it unless I make the nut straight. Too many ways to be dominated, like potentially here. AQ is the worst hand he could show up with here, and that still has 10 outs to beat you.

It doesn't matter whether the default raise is large or not, that doesn't make the call better. I mean I guess it makes it even worse if we also think the sizing is a hand strength tell, but no one was arguing that.

Honestly im fine with the preflop call, we are closing the action with a sexy hand, i dont think op drove all this way to fold JThh.

However op, flop and turn are major mistakes, when you are this deep, you have to play cautiously on these type of boards, the x/r min raise flop is not a thing, turn bet sizing is really bad, i would fold to the 100$ raise unless the guy is a maniac/very very bad overvalues AK.

With your hand unimproved its much better to just c/call all the way. Raising is a disaster this deep.

Not shocked solver would 3bet/fold for large opens ... this is std. 1-2 stuff though. I don't mind 3bet or call, fold is a bit nitty without reads on V's size.

Flop seems like a terrible x/r though. You are trying to get value from AK/AQ? Maybe KK/QQ?

Turn bet seems bad, are you trying to trigger V into raising AK/AQ? Because you often have 98 or QJ here?
After the raise you're playing street poker and have to work out if your size has triggered V, or you were crushed the entire way.
I think raising is spew, but you do you.

Should’ve racked up after the previous hand, locked in the big win after a long night, rather than get felted here after calling and then catching a jack on the river.

This is my thought too. Due to the possibility that we induced a raise with our small turn bet sizing, I'm likely calling the turn raise. Then if we don't boat up I'm checking river and hoping he checks back and we win. If he bets river I'm likely folding unless he uses absurdly small sizing.

Other people have already commented, but I'll just reinforce a few things that will help you going forward. Preflop is likely a fold due to high rake, but if you're a recreational player it's probably not too bad. Just know in the long run those types of calls likely lose a bit at a time.

On the flop remember that the deeper you get the stronger of a hand you need to raise for value. That's because you pretty much want a hand that you will be happy to get all the chips in with. JT is just too weak as the worst two pair on a board that will make a lot of stronger hands for your opponent. Yes you beat AK and AQ that will likely call the flop raise, but you lose to AJ, AT, KQ, AA, JJ and TT. If you continue piling money in AK and AQ will often fold by the river, and you'll be in bad shape against the better hands when the money goes in.

Your hand would have been much easier to play if you just called flop. It's also good to have some stronger hands in your calling range to protect your weaker calls. I call flop, check call turn and likely check call river unimproved. If turn checks through you can value bet river. Or if you boat up you can consider check-raising on future streets.

Turn is probably a fold, but hard to tell because of your weak-seeming small sizes. You are representing exactly what you have. You want your play to be deceptive and hard to read. Bigger sizes on the flop and turn aren't necessarily better though, because you are overplaying your hand. If you had KQ, then checkraising and betting turn with normal sizing would be good. If you had TT, I still would be a little cautious with 4th nuts, when the hands which beat TT are a decent part of his preflop range.

I would just take the mini-checkraise out of your playbook.

You are crushed by AA/JJ/TT/KQ/AJ/AT on the flop. You are a little over 60% against AK/AQ. You are about 75% against Axs, but that might not cbet and will likely fold to a standard sized checkraise. The problem is what is giving action to a normal sized x/r that you beat? AK/AQ/Q9 will call, but have good equity.

Call flop and you can value bet a lot of rivers if he checks back. Calling allows him to bluff or value bet worse.